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| | |-+  Rank these 12 states from most to least likely for Obama
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Author Topic: Rank these 12 states from most to least likely for Obama  (Read 2996 times)
GPORTER
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« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2012, 10:45:20 pm »
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I might write an Obama vs Santorum election timeline sometime soon.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2012, 11:10:55 pm »
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NH,VA,NC,FL,OH,IN,MO,CO,NV,PA, IA, AZ

Gas prices have doubled under Obama and he can't blame Bush for that so I don't think any of those will go blue in the fall.

PA
IA
NH
NV
CO
OH
VA
FL
OH
MO
NC
IN

Voters seem not to be holding the President accountable for oil prices. What matters more is the Iranian nuke program that can really mess things up for America.

Speculative booms in commodities can always go bust.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2012, 02:21:54 am »
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PA
NV
CO
IA
VA
NH
OH
_______ Drawing the line here.
FL
NC
MO
IN
AZ
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2012, 02:46:09 am »
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VS: Santorum

NH, NV, PA, CO, FL, IA, OH, IN, VA, NC, MO, AZ

VS ROMNEY
     '
PA, NC, VA, IA, CO, FL, OH, IN, MO, NV, NH, AZ
                                       
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2012, 04:51:14 am »
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IA
NV
PA
CO
NH
OH
VA
FL
AZ
NC
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
IN
MO
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #30 on: March 15, 2012, 05:28:24 am »
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NH,VA,NC,FL,OH,IN,MO,CO,NV,PA, IA, AZ

Gas prices have doubled under Obama and he can't blame Bush for that so I don't think any of those will go blue in the fall.

PA
IA
NH
NV
CO
OH
VA
FL
OH
MO
NC
IN

Voters seem not to be holding the President accountable for oil prices. What matters more is the Iranian nuke program that can really mess things up for America.

Speculative booms in commodities can always go bust.

His numbers have gone in the tank since prices of gas started to go up a few weeks ago.
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Earthling
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2012, 05:53:57 am »
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No, they didn't. Stop making up numbers. Obama is still around the same region as he was a month ago.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2012, 08:51:18 am »
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IA
OH
NV
PA
CO
NH
VA
NC
IN
FL
AZ
MO
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

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« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2012, 09:22:43 am »
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IA - PA - NV - C0 - NH - OH - VA - NC - FL - IN - MO - AZ
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« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2012, 03:01:33 pm »
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IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
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butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2012, 03:22:56 pm »
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IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0222.pdf

47-47 / 47-46 does not count as "likely REP".
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5280
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« Reply #36 on: March 15, 2012, 03:29:11 pm »
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IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0222.pdf

47-47 / 47-46 does not count as "likely REP".
Once Romney becomes nominee, expect the gap to widen.
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butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2012, 03:33:22 pm »
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IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0222.pdf

47-47 / 47-46 does not count as "likely REP".
Once Romney becomes nominee, expect the gap to widen.
Same source:
Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 52%
Not sure  2%

...

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable 35%
Unfavorable 56%
Not sure  9%

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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2012, 03:56:21 pm »
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AZ is about as purple as CA.
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butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #39 on: March 15, 2012, 04:12:15 pm »
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AZ is about as purple as CA.
I posted polling data to support my claim. Your turn now, Derek.
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R2D2
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« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2012, 04:22:37 pm »
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Most likely

IA
PA
NV
CO
OH
NH
FL
VA
IN
AZ
NC
MO

Least likely
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« Reply #41 on: March 15, 2012, 05:20:10 pm »
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PPP from last month showing Obama and Romney tied in Missouri.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/obama-competitive-in-missouri.html
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #42 on: March 15, 2012, 05:21:53 pm »
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IA
NV
PA
CO
NH
OH
VA
FL
AZ
NC
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
IN
MO

Based on his approval rating in the 40's? If it were October 2008 I'd agree. November 2012 is a different story.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #43 on: March 15, 2012, 05:27:19 pm »
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PPP from last month showing Obama and Romney tied in Missouri.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/obama-competitive-in-missouri.html

Obama has a lower ceiling in Missouri than in Arizona. If his campaign has the historic registration drive they've been touting, he has a shot at making the numbers work in Arizona. I think Obama's 2008 performance is where he is maxed out at in Missouri outside of a huge landslide occurring nationwide.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #44 on: March 15, 2012, 07:06:15 pm »
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IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0222.pdf

47-47 / 47-46 does not count as "likely REP".
Once Romney becomes nominee, expect the gap to widen.
Same source:
Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 52%
Not sure  2%

...

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable 35%
Unfavorable 56%
Not sure  9%



On the average, an incumbent Governor or Senator adds roughly 6% to his approval rating before the campaign season begins to get a likely share of the vote in a binary election. (This rules out contests in which there is a strong Third Party candidate who mucks the model up).  Such implies average competence of an incumbent as a politician and campaigner from then on, and opponents of average quality.

Breaking scandals? Voters usually find the incumbent aloof and inaccessible, usually resulting in a low approval rating before the campaign.

Opponents can carp all that they want while they challenge the details of the incumbent's record -- and the incumbent can't please everyone. Every incumbent politician is obliged to take sides on issues that displease at least 45% of the public -- or else dodge the issue and fail to do the job. Our elected officials very rarely vote on "rainbows and sunshine" but instead vote between irreconcilable options.

Once the campaign begins, most incumbents show why they were elected to the office that they hold. If those were the wrong reasons this time but the right ones the previous time, then the incumbent probably loses -- which shows up before the campaign season anyway. We already see that with many current Representatives. Sure, it's possible to ride a wave, but a wise surfer knows when to abandon the surfboard.

The high disapproval rating shows people who also disapprove of the eventual Republican nominee. So how does one vote when one likes neither? One either can't decide and somehow doesn't vote, votes based upon some random event (like a coin toss) -- and that evens out over a large number of people, or perhaps wastes one's vote on an independent or third-Party nominee.

At this point I would have to give President Obama a slightly-better-than-average chance of winning Arizona. Things still have to break right for him. Of course he loses the state if he doesn't campaign there. There will be an open Senate seat.

But I can say this: President Obama is an above-average campaigner; he has an agenda attractive to slightly more than half the US population; any one of the remaining Republican challengers looks far short of Ronald Reagan as a challenger. If he were a below-average campaigner and faced a strong challenger he would lose all but three of the states on the list (probably three of CO, IA, NH, and PA)... and we would see that already. He would have an approval rating around 40% and Democrats would say "This and this and this and this and this must happen and then the President would have a chance to be re-elected". That's like saying that if a bunch of things go right someone with a 2.9 high school GPA and mediocre college-board scores in a public high could get a chance to attend Harvard.        
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« Reply #45 on: March 15, 2012, 07:14:22 pm »
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PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #46 on: March 15, 2012, 07:49:40 pm »
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PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO

That's very realistic. If Rubio is the VP nominee, then I see CO, NM, and NV going red as well.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #47 on: March 15, 2012, 08:44:31 pm »
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PA - Philly
IA - Their economy is doing well enough that I think the president may be unfairly rewarded for it.
NV - Illegals
CO - Democrats successfully infiltrated this state as rich white liberals began to take it over and saturate it with psycho hipsters and the loon left.  It's one of those places that have been sullied by elites.
OH - Another state I don't trust, it may be in the heartland, but I'm always uneasy.
VA - McDonnell could make this ours, but I do believe NOVA is becoming more corrupted by DC as the years go by.
NC - Pat McCrory running for governor will probably help the ticket.  Obama will put money into this state, but I think as it gets closer it will revert to its roots.
FL - I don't trust this state, but it seems more likely to go our way than some others.
NH - state has soured on dems, I know this because I live here - Obama's admin is directly responsible for everyones sewer and water bills doubling in the next couple years due to EPA rules and people know it, and if Portsmouth Naval Base closes, he won't be having a friendly reception in even his best areas
IN - I don't think he's gonna get a repeat here, but he'll be around Chicago, potentially making the state closer than it should be
AZ - Fools gold and even dem insiders say that. 
MO - This state has consistently moved right.
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Ember
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« Reply #48 on: March 15, 2012, 08:55:39 pm »
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with Romney

PA
VA
NC
CO
OH
MO
FL
NV
AZ
IA
IN
NH

with Santorum

CO
NH
PA
NV
VA
OH
MO
AZ
NC
FL
IA
IN
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #49 on: March 15, 2012, 09:19:08 pm »
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PA - Philly
IA - Their economy is doing well enough that I think the president may be unfairly rewarded for it.
NV - Illegals
CO - Democrats successfully infiltrated this state as rich white liberals began to take it over and saturate it with psycho hipsters and the loon left.  It's one of those places that have been sullied by elites.
OH - Another state I don't trust, it may be in the heartland, but I'm always uneasy.
VA - McDonnell could make this ours, but I do believe NOVA is becoming more corrupted by DC as the years go by.
NC - Pat McCrory running for governor will probably help the ticket.  Obama will put money into this state, but I think as it gets closer it will revert to its roots.
FL - I don't trust this state, but it seems more likely to go our way than some others.
NH - state has soured on dems, I know this because I live here - Obama's admin is directly responsible for everyones sewer and water bills doubling in the next couple years due to EPA rules and people know it, and if Portsmouth Naval Base closes, he won't be having a friendly reception in even his best areas
IN - I don't think he's gonna get a repeat here, but he'll be around Chicago, potentially making the state closer than it should be
AZ - Fools gold and even dem insiders say that. 
MO - This state has consistently moved right.

More right than wrong here and that's for sure. With the way I expect 2012 to unfold it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they all went red.
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