Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 30, 2014, 05:16:43 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Rank these 12 states from most to least likely for Obama
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: Rank these 12 states from most to least likely for Obama  (Read 3072 times)
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1712
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #50 on: March 15, 2012, 09:41:06 pm »
Ignore

PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO

I'd swap VA with OH, but solid list.
Logged

5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2692
United States


View Profile
« Reply #51 on: March 15, 2012, 10:13:30 pm »
Ignore

IN and AZ shouldnt even be on the list, those are likely REP right now.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0222.pdf

47-47 / 47-46 does not count as "likely REP".
Once Romney becomes nominee, expect the gap to widen.
Same source:
Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 52%
Not sure  2%

...

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable 35%
Unfavorable 56%
Not sure  9%



As this clearly reenforces what I was saying. Stop trying to think Obama can win all 50 states, not going to happen.
PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

Rick Santorum (R) 45%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president
Logged

Paul/Cruz 2016!
Bull Moose Base
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2643


View Profile
« Reply #52 on: March 16, 2012, 10:55:44 am »
Ignore

but PPP had a much better record the past couple cycles than Rasmussen.

MO, AZ and GA are the only McCain states Obama is likely to be competitive in; if he wins those, he's probably held his 2008 states though IN could swing either way.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12536


View Profile
« Reply #53 on: March 16, 2012, 12:15:03 pm »
Ignore

PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO

That's very realistic. If Rubio is the VP nominee, then I see CO, NM, and NV going red as well.

I'd disagree on the extent of Rubio's appeal to Southwestern Hispanics (very different culture to Florida Hispanics) and in particular doubt NM will flip absent some enormity, but those states might well tighten.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13456


View Profile
« Reply #54 on: March 16, 2012, 12:18:01 pm »
Ignore

PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO

That's very realistic. If Rubio is the VP nominee, then I see CO, NM, and NV going red as well.

I'd disagree on the extent of Rubio's appeal to Southwestern Hispanics (very different culture to Florida Hispanics) and in particular doubt NM will flip absent some enormity, but those states might well tighten.

Good list Nathan, though like Nagas I would switch up VA and OH, although they will vote about the same. And yeah, Rubio will likely have no appeal with Hispanics in the southwest. If the Republicans could they would bring the entire country of Cuba over here, but  on the other hand are overtly anti-Mexican. If the Republicans think they did bad with the Hispanic vote in 2008, they haven't seen nothing yet.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14669
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #55 on: March 16, 2012, 01:27:59 pm »
Ignore

PA
IA
CO
NV
OH
VA
NH
-------- As of now, Obama wins all states above the line.
NC
FL
AZ
IN
MO

That's very realistic. If Rubio is the VP nominee, then I see CO, NM, and NV going red as well.

I'd disagree on the extent of Rubio's appeal to Southwestern Hispanics (very different culture to Florida Hispanics) and in particular doubt NM will flip absent some enormity, but those states might well tighten.

Good list Nathan, though like Nagas I would switch up VA and OH, although they will vote about the same. And yeah, Rubio will likely have no appeal with Hispanics in the southwest. If the Republicans could they would bring the entire country of Cuba over here, but  on the other hand are overtly anti-Mexican. If the Republicans think they did bad with the Hispanic vote in 2008, they haven't seen nothing yet.

Rubio's selection would help solidify Florida's Cuban-Americans for the GOP but that's about it

Florida's Hispanic vote ain't, politically, homogenous. Conservative older Cuban Americans are reliably Republican; however, younger Cuban Americans (Obama, in 2008, carried them against McCain) together with an expanding number of non-Cuban Hispanics tend to lean Democratic

I don't see Rubo having much of an effect with Hispanics, nationally, the majority of them being Mexican Americans, who may well trend further towards the Democratic Party
Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14669
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #56 on: March 16, 2012, 01:37:21 pm »
Ignore

PA, IA, CO, NV, OH, VA, NH, FL, NC, IN, MO, AZ
Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10140
United States


View Profile
« Reply #57 on: March 16, 2012, 02:23:35 pm »
Ignore

PA --Romney has nothing to offer that any Republican hasn't already offered. Santorum? Someone is going to remind PA why it voted him out of the US Senate in 2006.
IA --  President Obama has done nothing to lose the state.
CO -- GOP disaster largely due to the rapidly-growing Hispanic presence.
NH -- Republicans  could win the state if they decide to spend all their resources in New Hampshire. There are 533 others.
OH -- President Obama saved the auto industry. Enough said.
NV -- But he can't resurrect the housing industry. Still the state will be flooded with campaign operatives from ultra-safe California.
VA -- Large black population; lots of government employees and contractors who know how their bread is buttered. Becoming a Northern State.
NC -- A real surprise in 2008, but clearly drifting D.
FL -- Large Hispanic population even if it is heavily Cuban. It's no longer enough for Republicans to say "I HATE FIDEL CASTRO", especially as Castro becomes less important than the environment, education, and employment.
MO -- Tough Senate seat to defend; this will attract attention from President Obama. Expect the Obama campaign to flood Missouri with campaign staff from Texas (where it is likely to be irrelevant in a loss) and sure-win states in the Midwest. President Obama may still be the worst possible Democrat for winning the Appalachian/Ozark white vote, but if he can pick that up he has a 450+ landslide in the Electoral College because he would then pick up Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, and maybe Texas. 
AZ -- GOP is going nuts. Subtract 10% from John McCain's substandard win of 2008 and President Obama wins. 10% is roughly the average gain for a Favorite Son, and that makes the state close. Expect about every Arizona voter of Mexican origin to vote straight-D.
IN -- 2008 may have been a one-time fluke for President Obama. But he did save the auto industry even if that isn't quite as important in Indiana as in Ohio. Democrats could put a huge amount of money into Indiana in the event that the venerable Senator Lugar is tea-bagged.         

 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines