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Author Topic: Indiana and Oregon  (Read 1152 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: March 15, 2012, 04:20:45 pm »
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Looking at the upcoming states I can say for most of them that they are favorable to Romney (Illinois, New York, Maryland, California) or Santorum (Louisiana, Texas, Nebraska, West Virginia).
But with Indiana and Oregon I can't quite get an impression. It seems to me that they could go either way and become tie breakers.

Any thoughts?
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2012, 04:29:08 pm »
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Oregon will be close, but Portland will do as Detroit did for Michigan in Oregon. So Romney.
Indiana will go Santorum
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2012, 04:32:54 pm »
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Quote from: Matthew on March 15, 2012, 04:29:08 pm
Oregon will be close, but Portland will do as Detroit did for Michigan in Oregon. So Romney.
Indiana will go Santorum


I'd wait to see IL, but IN could easily go for Romney.  It is not an arch right-wing state.
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2012, 04:55:22 pm »
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IN - Santorum.

Oregon - depends on how Portland rolls and if Newt drops out.
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Lief
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2012, 05:03:59 pm »
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I always assumed that in WA/OR, Republicans voters in the east outnumbered those in Seattle/Portland, but the caucus proved the opposite, I guess.

IN should be a relatively solid Santorum state.
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm »
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Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2012, 05:10:46 pm »
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In 2004, pollsters said that Oregon had the most liberal Kerry supporters and the most conservative Bush voters. Santorum should be favored there. Then again, it depends on the state of the race.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2012, 05:12:27 pm »
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Oregon - small Romney win
Indiana - very small Santorum win
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 05:40:30 pm by Ron Swanson »Logged


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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2012, 05:43:27 pm »
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I suspect Indiana is a better state for Romney demographically than Ohio, though not as good as Illinois. It's Butternut region is considerably less important than Ohio's,  the Indianapolis metro area is a pretty big chunk of the total (which is a white collar town to boot),  it has some Cincinnati exurbs, and the NW "Chicagoland" metro industrial zone and Catholic Ft. Bend should also be pretty good for Mittens. Also Evansville is not really a Butternut town. It like Cincinnati was once an anti-slavery German island in a sea of folks from Virginia who sounded like that, and still do to come extent.

I would be surprised some if Mittens does not come in first, particularly if Newt is still around and can still pull say 15% of the vote or more. Even 10% might be enough.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 05:49:04 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2012, 05:52:44 pm »
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Oregon - solid Obama if Romney is the nominee.

Romney's only going to carry areas like MT, WY, ID, UT. That's it.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2012, 06:47:44 pm »
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Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm
Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.

But... I thought he was a severe conservative. Huh
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Progressive Realist
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« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2012, 08:15:04 pm »
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Indiana will be Santorum country outside of places like Hamilton County.
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« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2012, 08:27:55 pm »
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This thread calls for maps.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 08:31:15 pm by Ron Swanson »Logged


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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2012, 09:16:40 pm »
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Quote from: Thomas D on March 15, 2012, 06:47:44 pm
Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm
Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.

But... I thought he was a severe conservative. Huh

What do you mean?
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Thomas D
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« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2012, 09:18:56 pm »
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Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 09:16:40 pm
Quote from: Thomas D on March 15, 2012, 06:47:44 pm
Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm
Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.

But... I thought he was a severe conservative. Huh

What do you mean?

That's what Governor Romney called himself at C-PAC last month.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2012, 09:19:49 pm »
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Quote from: Thomas D on March 15, 2012, 09:18:56 pm
Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 09:16:40 pm
Quote from: Thomas D on March 15, 2012, 06:47:44 pm
Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm
Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.

But... I thought he was a severe conservative. Huh

What do you mean?

That's what Governor Romney called himself at C-PAC last month.

Now that sounds to me like he's involved in politics.
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TJ in Wisco
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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2012, 10:29:04 pm »
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I would suspect Indiana would be a good state for Santorum because it's very similar to Ohio minus Cincinnati and Cleveland (Indi=Columbus). It lacks a butternut region like southeast Ohio but Indiana is generally less Catholic and more Evangelical than Ohio and probably has more in common with NW Ohio than any other part of the state: mostly endlessly flat farm fields with scattered industrial towns. In 2008 when Obama pulled his upset in Indiana, the part of Ohio that swung toward him the most was the northwest. NW Ohio was one of Santorum's best parts of the state last week and voted pretty similarly to the butternut region. Heck, Santorum even won Lucas County.

I have no concept of what an Oregon Republican is like, so I'll leave the prediction of that state to others.
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2012, 11:26:24 pm »
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Oregon is 3% Mormon, safe Romney.

Well maybe not quite, but they ought to be at least 10% of Republican primary voters.
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« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2012, 04:08:18 pm »
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Quote from: Ron Swanson on March 15, 2012, 08:27:55 pm


This thread calls for maps.

I can verify Clinton County on that map. Though is got a significant Latino community.
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2012, 10:17:55 pm »
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Can anyone actually confirm that the Indiana Primary actually has any direct bearing on the selection of Tampa delegates?  The Green Papers says it does, but I can't find an official source. 

The State Committee Rules are unenlightening.
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« Reply #20 on: March 16, 2012, 10:23:02 pm »
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Santorum should win Indiana if the race is close. If Romney has it pretty much locked up and many think Santorum is just "prolonging" the race, he may win.

I just really want a competitive race here, and I think I'll get it. It'll be nice to be part of the process for once, as well as it will probably take attention off the Senate primary, which would be the primary attention in an uncontested Presidential race.
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« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2012, 11:21:52 pm »
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Quote from: Tidewater_Wave on March 15, 2012, 05:10:15 pm
Off topic somewhat, does anyone see Oregon being winnable for Romney in the fall with his moderate views combined with Oregon's center-left tendencies? I don't see Oregon as being Maryland or even California. It's just a thought. He'd probably have to beat Obama by 5 before it went his way.

What moderate views? He has abandoned them. He's to the right of Santorum now, remember?
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« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2012, 01:03:36 pm »
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Mitt Romney has no views.
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« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2012, 01:39:58 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on March 15, 2012, 04:32:54 pm
Quote from: Matthew on March 15, 2012, 04:29:08 pm
Oregon will be close, but Portland will do as Detroit did for Michigan in Oregon. So Romney.
Indiana will go Santorum


I'd wait to see IL, but IN could easily go for Romney.  It is not an arch right-wing state.

No, but this is the IN GOP we're talking about, JJ.
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