Popular vote since 1992 (user search)
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  Popular vote since 1992 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Popular vote since 1992  (Read 3324 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,741


« on: March 15, 2012, 10:43:26 PM »

Here's one of those obvious political facts that sometimes hits you like a ton of bricks: Since 1992, the GOP presidential candidate has only won the popular vote one time. So, out of five consecutive elections, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote 4 times, and the GOP candidate won it once.

Isn't that crazy? No wonder people turned on Bush. He won by a technicality in 2000, only won by 3 million votes in 2004, yet he governed like he was given a Reaganesque mandate.

Do you think, in the near future, the Republicans will ever have a significant enough victory to win back states like California, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts or Minnesota? And if so, what do they have to do.
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old timey villain
cope1989
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,741


« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2012, 01:32:18 PM »

Yawn, cherrypick starting dates and you can conclude anything. Start from 1968 and it's Republicans who have the upper hand... or go back to 1960 to make it Democrats again... or 1952 for Republicans again... or 1932 for Democrats again... and so on.

I am aware that dates can be used to draw one's own conclusion. If you looked at the three presidential elections in the 1980's you'd think that the Democratic party didn't exist.

Still, political eras are a real thing, and most political scientists can look back and determine periods of time when one party had the upper hand.

1) fifth party system: FDR's election created the new deal coalition. From 1932 to 1967 the Republicans only won 2 presidential elections.

2) sixth party system: There is debate as to when it ended, or if it has ended at all, but most agree it started in 1968 with the election of Richard Nixon. I personally believe that this era ended in 1992. Between 1969 and 1991, the Republicans won five presidential elections out of six. That's definitely a trend.

3) I don't know if you can call this a new era or a transition period, but since 1992, it's become increasingly more difficult for Republicans to win presidential elections, while it's become easier to win control of congress.

-since 1992, the democratic candidate's electoral vote total has never fallen below 251, while the republicans electoral total has never risen above 300. The GOP actually received less than 200 EV's in three out of the last 5 elections. That is most certainly a trend.

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