Newt voters split between Romney and Santorum?

[Keystone Phil]

Gallup is selling an interesting one: 40% of Newt voters would go to Romney and 39% would go to Santorum.

Now I'm not one that believe almost all would go to Santorum but I did expect a 60-40 or 70-30 breakdown in favor of Rick. Junk poll?

[Adam Griffin]

Seems way too skewed. Santorum should at least have the plurality, if not an outright majority of ~60%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I asked a Newt supporter I know about Santorum. He said that he sees Santorum as too crazy regarding culture wars.

[Adam Griffin]

I asked a Newt supporter I know about Santorum. He said that he sees Santorum as too crazy regarding culture wars.

I think this underscores a key difference between Newt voters and Santorum voters that many don't consider. Gingrich uses economic points to outline our social situation (as does Romney), whereas Santorum uses social points to outline our economic situation. While they all may be "conservatives", Newt's supporters take their marching orders from a different line of rhetoric than Santorum's. I think a larger amount of Newt's supporters - more than most expect (at least 40%) - will find a better fit with Romney in the end.

[Likely Voter]

Well Newt is down to only 13% in the latest Gallup. So many of his supporters have already left for Rick. I am not surprised the remainders would be split evenly. But even if they werent, how many would Rick net...maybe 2%.

It's not always cut and dry that Newt pulling out will help Rick. For example in PR Newt could help Romney under 50% and therefore under the WTA threshold. Plus Newt's ads essentially double-team Rick against Romney, which probably end up benefiting Rick just as much if not more.

In the end I think Newt dropping out would have a net positive result for Santorum, but it wouldn't be that dramatic at this point.

[California8429]

This poll is oddly accurate. Gingrich supporters are split between him and Romney, despite a majority having some level of hatred toward Mittens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP has repeatedly asked that question and in all states found roughly the same numbers: 50% of Newt's voters would go to Santorum, 20-25% would go to Mittens and the rest would just scatter.

[Bull Moose Base]

I don't see why Newt, sharing Santorum's goal of blocking Romney from a majority, doesn't confine his campaign to only those states where he hurts Romney more than Santorum.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

More Newt folks would go Paul first. Newt is open to some of Paul's plan unlike Santorum.

[Landslide Lyndon]

More Newt folks would go Paul first. Newt is open to some of Paul's plan unlike Santorum.

Hahahaha!!! That's a good one dude.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/gingrich-wouldnt-vote-for-ron-paul/

Newt Gingrich said Tuesday he wouldn't vote for Ron Paul if the Texas congressman won the 2012 GOP nomination.

Speaking to CNN's Wolf Blitzer, Gingrich slammed Paul as out of line with mainstream Republican viewpoints, including his stance on Israel, Iran, and September 11. "I think Ron Paul's views are totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American," Gingrich said on CNN's "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer."

Gingrich continued: "He's got to come up with some very straight answers to get somebody to take him seriously. Would I be willing to listen to him? Sure. I think the choice of Ron Paul or Barack Obama would be a very bad choice for America."

When asked if he would be able to vote for Paul if his rival won the 2012 GOP nomination, Gingrich said unequivocally "No."

[J. J.]

I still think at least slightly more would gravitate to Santorum.  Of course, some probably have already.

[Lincoln Republican]

Gallup is an excellent polling organization, respected worldwide.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Gallup is an excellent polling organization, respected worldwide.

Gallup was a complete failure at state polling in 2004, and their final national poll in 2008 was crap. With Rasmussen putting out crap now it seems PPP is the only trustworthy pollster.

[tmthforu94]

A common misconception all along has been that if Newt drops out, Santorum has it in the bag and will get almost all of his support. Perhaps it'd be possible if Newt threw himself 100% behind Santorum and sent his delegates to him, but otherwise, Santorum's going to have a tough time going forward.

[Wisconsin+17]

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His path really has been smooth so far, hasn't it?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The Newt subsample is probably small enough that there's a large MOE.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup is an excellent polling organization, respected worldwide.

Thanks for that.

[Jax27]

This isn't surprising to me. Gingrich attracted both moderates and the more socially conservative from our party.

[milhouse24]

Newt appealed to the "experience voters" who value the length of his congressional service, and his intelligence on political matters.  This would appeal to more economic voters that are similar to Romney's intellectual arguements. 

Newt also appealed to southern evangelical voters based on geographical culture, and these evangelical religious voters would prefer the religious Santorum over the secular atheist Romney.

Blue collar northern catholic voters are more likely economic voters that fear southern christian conservative dogma, and are more likely to vote for Romney.  These are socially liberal Kennedy Catholics who are economically interested and became Reagan Democrats.