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| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | | |-+  McCain did VERY VERY BAD in the Midwest!
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Author Topic: McCain did VERY VERY BAD in the Midwest!  (Read 1235 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: April 10, 2017, 09:08:59 pm »
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Obama won Illinois by 25 points! That's about the same margin as Hillary winning Vermont! Indiana, one of the most Republican states in the country, voted Democratic, wasn't even the least Democratic of the blue states. News networks called Iowa at poll closing time, it was Safe Obama, with Obama leading by 17 points, about 15 in 3 different polls. Michigan is red now, Obama won it by a whopping 16.5 points! Obama also took Minnesota and Wisconsin by double digits! North Dakota and South Dakota were both considered TOSSUPS. In Nebraska, McCain couldn't even get all of the electoral votes, one of them went to Obama.

Missouri and Ohio... not much to say. I'm surprised Obama didn't win Missouri.
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2017, 09:16:48 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.
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But everything was fine when Bush spent $250 million of taxpayer money for pro war propaganda on all the media for a $2 trillion war that created ISIS?
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2017, 09:35:16 pm »
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In the CNN 2008 exit poll. About X of each state thought Obama was in touch with them.


Missouri - 53%
Indiana - 57%
Iowa - 58%
Minnesota - 59%
Wisconsin -61%
Michigan - 64%
Illinois - 67%


It really fits with the margins that Obama received there which explained why Wisconsin was more democratic while a long time traditionally blue state like Minnesota went for Obama less than neighboring Wisconsin which went for close margins in 00 and 04. As for how Missouri was more conservative in 2008 than Indiana which went double digits for Bush. I'd say that might be because Missouri is more southern than a lot of people think.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 09:39:40 pm by ( ͡ ͜ʖ ͡) »Logged

Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2017, 03:57:29 pm »
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McCain was an incredibly poor fit for the region, which he might have been able to overcome if he wasn't running against a Midwesterner.
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2017, 04:03:46 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Wouldn't this be an argument for nominating another Midwesterner, then?
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2017, 04:48:43 pm »
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Yeah I wonder what would happen if you put a democrat who is possibly the ideal candidate for the Midwest and put him up against a republican who is a terrible fit for the Midwest, and have the incumbent republican president be utterly despised.

I guess the republican candidate might perform a bit poorly in the Midwest, in those circumstances.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2017, 07:17:18 am »
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The economic downturn + the fact that Obama was a midwesterner.
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2017, 10:22:59 pm »
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I get why Obama was a good fit for the midwest (from Illinois and campaigned as a Berniecrat), but why was McCain a bad fit for the midwest?
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Cath
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2017, 08:42:57 pm »
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Classic Midwest Isolationism- McCain was the original NeoCon.  Also keep in mind that Obama lagged Reagan's 1980 margin running for an open seat under even worse economic conditions.  2008 isn't really all that impressive when you stack it up against other elections held right in the middle of an economic crisis: 1932, 1980, and the midterms in 1894 and 1874.  The surprising thing about 2008 is that Obama didn't win by 15 nationwide and by 20 in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. 

The weird part of this is that you can't attribute it to Obama being a weak candidate because he beat economic expectations handily in 2012.  I think you have to conclude that McCain was actually uniquely strong.

It's simply attributable to partisanship having solidified in that time.
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2017, 09:07:07 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Nobody from outside of the Chicago area feels any sense of identity with a Chicagoan. Midwestern identity isn't like southern identity. I remember my dad saying once that Chicago wasn't really midwestern.
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2017, 09:54:09 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Nobody from outside of the Chicago area feels any sense of identity with a Chicagoan. Midwestern identity isn't like southern identity. I remember my dad saying once that Chicago wasn't really midwestern.

Downstate Illinois voted for Obama in his 2004 race.
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2017, 10:27:58 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Nobody from outside of the Chicago area feels any sense of identity with a Chicagoan. Midwestern identity isn't like southern identity. I remember my dad saying once that Chicago wasn't really midwestern.

Downstate Illinois voted for Obama in his 2004 race.


Downstate Illinois would literally vote for a pile of garbage over Alan Keyes.
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2017, 11:50:23 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Nobody from outside of the Chicago area feels any sense of identity with a Chicagoan. Midwestern identity isn't like southern identity. I remember my dad saying once that Chicago wasn't really midwestern.

Downstate Illinois voted for Obama in his 2004 race.


Yeah, numbers would suggest otherwise. The three times a Midwestern Democrat has been at the top of the ticket in the last 45 years, the Midwest has trended Democratic. And the one time a Midwestern Republican was on the ticket, the Midwest trended Republican.
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But everything was fine when Bush spent $250 million of taxpayer money for pro war propaganda on all the media for a $2 trillion war that created ISIS?
No, who said it was?
President Rich Cordray
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2017, 01:22:51 pm »
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Breaking News: Man does well in home state. Midwest likes fellow Midwesterner.

Ya know, I just noticed Jimmy Carter did very well in the South, too.

Nobody from outside of the Chicago area feels any sense of identity with a Chicagoan. Midwestern identity isn't like southern identity. I remember my dad saying once that Chicago wasn't really midwestern.

Downstate Illinois voted for Obama in his 2004 race.


Downstate Illinois would literally vote for a pile of garbage over Alan Keyes.

Ummmm...okay but as noted above the three times a Midwestern Democrat was at the top of the ticket the Midwest did trend Democrat so clearly the region as a whole has an affinity for their own regional candidates regardless of how "Chicagoan" they are.
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12 billion dollars back to consumers.
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Next Ohio Governor.

And just what has lazy Bernie done? Yeah, that's what I thought.

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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2017, 05:26:19 pm »
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Classic Midwest Isolationism- McCain was the original NeoCon.  Also keep in mind that Obama lagged Reagan's 1980 margin running for an open seat under even worse economic conditions.  2008 isn't really all that impressive when you stack it up against other elections held right in the middle of an economic crisis: 1932, 1980, and the midterms in 1894 and 1874.  The surprising thing about 2008 is that Obama didn't win by 15 nationwide and by 20 in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. 

The weird part of this is that you can't attribute it to Obama being a weak candidate because he beat economic expectations handily in 2012.  I think you have to conclude that McCain was actually uniquely strong.

Obama is black. I guarantee a scandal free John Edwards would easily have won by 15 points if not more nationwide.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2017, 05:26:31 pm »
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Relative to the national average, I suspect McCain's weakness in the Midwest was comparable to that of Ford in 1976 or Bush in 1988.
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