Italy Local Elections May 2012

[Andrea]

1,035 municipalities will elect their mayor and the local council on May 6th/7th.

The main cities/towns voting this year include:

Palermo: Mayor Diego Cammarata (Forza Italia) resigned in January. His term would have expired in May anyway. The Centre-Left organized a primary election which ended as a disaster. Fabrizio Ferrandelli (a former local councillor for Di Pietro's party who has been expelled and has backed the idea of supporting regional centrist governor Lombardo when PD was opposed to it before changing its mind)  beated by a couple of hundred of votes Rita Borsellino (supported by the national leadership of PD, Di Pietro and Left&Liberity). There are allegations about voting fraud flying around. Italia dei Valori and SEL (Left and Liberty) have already said they wouldn't support him as a candidate
PDL will run Massimo Costa with the backing of UDC too. Fini's FLI and MPA (Lombardo) will run Alessandro Aricò (who was in Cammarata's cabinet)
2007 result: Centre-Right coalition 53.49% Centre-Left 45.24%

Genova: Currently ruled by PD Marta Vincenzi. Much criticized for her supposed "authoritarian" tendency towards the parties supporting her and for her handling of the flood disaster this winter, she was opposed by another PD MP in the coalition primary election early this year. This resulted in SEL supported candidate Marco Doria winning.
2007 result: CL 51.21% CR 45.98%

Verona: Lega incumbent Flavio Tosi is running again. PdL is supposed to run with FLI and UDC here.
2007 result CR 60.7% CL 33.9%

Taranto
2007 (run off)  Left 76.3% Centre-Left 23.7% (it was an atypical year: the previous centre-right mayor almost bankrupted the city)

Parma: the mayor has been forced to resign after a financial scandal at the end of 2011
2007 (run off) CR 56.6 CL 43.4

Monza: Lega incumbent is running again but PdL is going at first round with its own candidate
2007 CR 53.5% CL 41.6%

Piacenza: the centre-left incumbent can't run again because he has done 2 consecutive terms
2007 run off: CL 55.7 CR 44.3

Lecce
2007 CR 56.2 CL 36.7

La Spezia
2007  CL 51.3 CR 39%

Alessandria
2007 CR 63% CL 33.6%

Asti
2007 CR 56.2 CL 32.4%

Cuneo: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CL 51% CR 40%

Como: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 56.2% CL 33.2%

Belluno
2007 CR 53.7 CL 42.2%

Gorizia
2007 CR 51.1 Left 20% CL 16.1%

Carrara
2007 CL 54.1% CR 35.6%

Lucca
2007 run off: CR 52.5% CL 47.5%

Pistoia: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 run off: CL 53.3 CR 46.7

Frosinone
2007 CL 53.3% CR 35.6%

Rieti:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 52.2 CL 43.6

Isernia:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 69.1 CL 18.4%

Trani:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 60.2% CL 21.9%

Agrigento
2007 run off: CL 62.9 CR 37.1%

Trapani:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 64.7 CL 22.2%

Oristano: the incumbent was forced to resign by her own coalition last year
2007 run off: CR 58.2 CL 42.8

Catanzaro: the incumbent was an MP...you can't have the double role...everyone knew it except him, apparently...the constitutional court had to rule that yes, they can't find a way to let him have both and so he chose to be an MP afterall
2011 CR 62% CL 32.5%

Brindisi: the incumbent resigned for healt reasons
2009 run off: CR 52.5% CL 47.5


2007 was in the middle of short lived second Prodi's government. So it was a bad year for the Left, especially in the North. However, you can always trust on PD doing its best to do silly things.
The PdL/Lega dynamic will be interested. If they run separately, they will probably force many run offs in the North. Will their electorate compact itself for the secound round or (if it's sunny) many will prefer a nice trip away from home for the weekend?

Candidatures should be formally presented on April 2/3th

[Californian Tony]

Hopefully the left can assert its strength with these elections, as a preview for next year.

[Insula Dei]

I take it Como is wholly out of reach for the left?

[Keystone Phil]

We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

[Andrea]

We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

Centre-right is winning mayoral elections in Parma since 1998 (even if at national election level, they have voted centre-left even in 2001 and 2008)


I saw a poll for Genoa at the beginning of March and it was CL 44 CR 37 UDC/Fini/Rutelli 8%
That kind of figures should see CL through in a second round but the polls was asking just parties voting intentions without naming candidates. So something may change

Yes, PdL and Lega are running sperately in quite a few places (especially main towns)

I take it Como is wholly out of reach for the left?

There was a Euromedia poll (Euromedia was usually Berlusconi's favourite pollster) showing an head to head in Como a couple of weeks ago.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, PdL and Lega are running sperately in quite a few places (especially main towns)

[Roma Caput Mundi]

We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

Genoa won't be a pick up for PdL.
Vincenzi was not liked at all,but now that Doria has won the primary,Genoa will continue voting for the center-left candidate.

For the rest,these elections aren't remotely as interesting as last year's'. I guess though it will be interesting to see how the parties go while there is Monti's government.
Too bad for Palermo,could have been the first big pick up in Sicily in a long time.

[Andrea]

Some polls

Genova (by Ipsos)
Doria (CL) 49.2%
Musso (FLI/UDC) 20.1%
Viani (PdL) 12.4%
Rixi (Lega) 6.5%
Putti (5 stelle) 5.8%

Agrigento (Ipsos)

Arnone (former PD) 31.2%
Zambuto (UDC) 26%
Minacori 16.8%
Di Mauro (MPA) 11.3%
Iacolino (PDL) 10.6%
Capodicasa (PD) 4.1%

Tested run offs: neck and neck between Arnone and Zambuto. Armone would beat easily Iacolino and Di Mauro

Looking like a local mess. I don't know the details. From what I read, PdL and PD haven't a confirmed candidate (if the poll is accurate both of them are doing terribly but I guess the UDC incumbent is taking their potential PdL electorate and Arnone the left wing one).

Gorizia (Euromedia)
Romoli (PdL/Lega) 55% Cingolani (PD) 45%
Romoli (just PdL) 52.2% Cingolani (PD) 38.4% Ceretta (Lega) 9.4%

[Californian Tony]

Some polls

Genova (by Ipsos)
Doria (CL) 49.2%
Musso (FLI/UDC) 20.1%
Viani (PdL) 12.4%
Rixi (Lega) 6.5%
Putti (5 stelle) 5.8%

After Puglia 2005 and Milan 2011, further proof that nominating non-PD left-wingers is the best way to win elections.

[Keystone Phil]

Any word on how these went on Day One?

[Andrea]

Any word on how these went on Day One?

Turnout for Day 1 is 48.98%, down from 54.85% at the same hour in the same places.

[Andrea]

with just few municipalities to report turnout, final figure at 67/67% overall down from 73/75% last time

From first projections given by tv channels, it looks as Lega confirmed Verona (with PdL collapsing), centre-left forced to a run off in Genova (but way ahead), Parma could have a CL vs Grillo's 5 Stars run off and Orlando is ahead in Palermo (not clear who is second).

[Roma Caput Mundi]

PdL has completely collapsed.
In Palermo,Orlando (IdV) has 45%,Ferrandelli (Pd) has 18% and Costa (PdL) has 15%...and Sicily has been PdL's stronghold for years.
Everywhere else PdL is out of the runoffs as well. I guess most of those votes went to Grillo's movement,which might go to historic run offs in Parma and Genoa.

[Sibboleth]

More details on where the PdL's voters are heading?

[Californian Tony]

What are the results for Genova ?

[Andrea]

What are the results for Genova ?

Projections gave Doria at around 45% with Musso (Fini/UDC/local lists) at around 16%, Putti (5 stelle) at 14% and Vinai (PdL) at 13%

Parma is a run off between centre-left (36%) and 5 stelle (20%).

Tosi (Lega) is confirmed Mayor of Verona with 54/55% but PdL may struggle to get 10% there.
In Monza it looks it is Lega (who is fielding the incumbent) to have collapsed and will probably be eliminated tonight.

I heard that PdL was struggling in Palermo but seeing them out of top 2 is still a bit shocking

Looks like PdL is going to get a kick but Pd itself hasn't really benefited much from it.

Reporting of results is always slow in big cities. We will have a better picture in a couple of hours.

[Keystone Phil]

It's definitely time for FLI to lead the Italian Center-Right.   Can some of our Italian friends speak to what, if any, serious benefit Fini and Co. will get from this or will they still get blamed?

These results are damning for PdL. Lega is gobbling up everything in the north. I don't know how to explain places like Palermo. And not making it to other runoffs while 5 Star does? Mind blowing.

[Californian Tony]

Wow, awesome stuff here.

A tiny consolation after the disappointment in France.

[Senator MaxQue]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

[Californian Tony]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

[Keystone Phil]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Yep. The fact that they are in runoffs is crazy. Absolutely crazy.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

Yeah. Guess most PdL ex-voters went for the 5 Stelle this time.
By the way,Phil,FLI is doing even worse than PDL
The Terzo Polo (third pole) is absolutely irrelevant at a local level.

[Californian Tony]

I have to say I'm with Phil this time. FLI would make for a far more decent, competent and morally acceptable right-wing party.

[Keystone Phil]

Of course FLI is doing worse than PdL. It's still a fairly new party but events like this should allow it to emerge as the Center-Right alternative.

[Andrea]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

Yeah. Guess most PdL ex-voters went for the 5 Stelle this time.

Probably some Lega votes in the North too: those who finally discovered that Lega was more interested in Rosy Mauro's diamonds and didn't have anything else to vote for.

5 Stelle got their first mayor in a little municipality near Vicenza.

Among cities "aheading" a province, it looks like that centre-left has already held Pistoia, La Spezia and Carrara and gained Brindisi. Centre-right has held Lecce, Gorizia and Verona. They have already lost Parma and Palermo where their candidate didn't reach the run off.

Incidentally looking at list votes for Verona council, it's the civic list Tosi for Verona that got lots of votes with a weak performance by the official Lega list