Some news about the Utah Gubernatorial race

[Zioneer]

Jon, you should have never left! Would he have run for a third term?

No, probably not. There were rumors even before he became Ambassador that he was going to run (in fact the rumor was that Obama shipped him off to per-emptively remove him as a serious contender), so I figure that he wouldn't have bothered with a third term.

Oh, and in regards to the actual gubernatorial race, both Herbert and Cooke are going to the general election without a primary; Cooke was completely uncontested and Herbert barely got over the 60% needed to avoid a primary on the second ballot.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Jon, you should have never left! Would he have run for a third term?

No, probably not. There were rumors even before he became Ambassador that he was going to run (in fact the rumor was that Obama shipped him off to per-emptively remove him as a serious contender), so I figure that he wouldn't have bothered with a third term.

Oh, and in regards to the actual gubernatorial race, both Herbert and Cooke are going to the general election without a primary; Cooke was completely uncontested and Herbert barely got over the 60% needed to avoid a primary on the second ballot.

Well, Obama certainly hurt the chances of a conservative Mormon governor who had a rich daddy and was seen by many as being more liberal than he actually was.  Too bad there were two of them. Fail for Obama.

[Trueconservative]

We Republicans have Utah in the bag this year. You Democrats might as well give up hope for 2012 at least. I like Utah politics.

[Zioneer]

We Republicans have Utah in the bag this year. You Democrats might as well give up hope for 2012 at least. I like Utah politics.

Oh, I don't think so. Not this year. Not when Utah Democrats are more energized than ever. Not when we're more moderate than ever. Not when there's over a thousand officially registered LDS Dems, with more on the way, and many who are sympathetic to us. Not when we've got a bigger network than ever before. Not when we've got a charismatic, moderate retired General on our side. And especially not when Governor Herbert's had so many scandals. Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

[smoltchanov]

Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

Yes. But WHEN??

[Zioneer]

Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

Yes. But WHEN??

Hopefully, after this year's election.

[smoltchanov]

Hopefully, after this year's election.

With 65-27 poll and in Utah - i still heavily doubt... Though i would like to be proven wrong...

[Hashemite]

We have a new Harry?

[Zioneer]

We have a new Harry?

Don't quite understand what you mean by that. If you mean a deluded guy who's party has almost no chance of winning in the state he lives in, yeah probably. I just keep up the hope because I honestly believe that the Utah Democrats have the best chance they've had in years in 2012, with better candidates, more funding, more turnout, and more missteps by the Republicans.

Cooke doesn't have an easy chance of winning, but I'm just trying to keep hope alive for myself and anyone who cares.

[Svensson]

Well, if it helps any, you have the support and enthusiasm of your immediate neighbor. I would donate if I had any money to speak of.

[Zioneer]

Hopefully, after this year's election.

With 65-27 poll and in Utah - i still heavily doubt... Though i would like to be proven wrong...

Well, it's still over 5 and a half months until the November elections, so I think any polls this far out are not useful. Plus, Cooke is barely known at this point, and it was a newspaper poll on top of all that.

I'm thinking (hoping, really) that it'll end up 51-49 (or at least 49.6 to 49.4 or whatever), with Peter Cooke becoming Governor.

Well, if it helps any, you have the support and enthusiasm of your immediate neighbor. I would donate if I had any money to speak of.

Do you have 5 bucks? Donate that much.

No, seriously, if you've got any Utah relatives or friends, it'd be nice if you could tell them about Cooke. I understand that it's a longshot, but it'd be really nice if I didn't have to hear the old cliche of "Only Republicans win in Utah" again.

[Senator X]

Hopefully, after this year's election.

With 65-27 poll and in Utah - i still heavily doubt... Though i would like to be proven wrong...

Well, it's still over 5 and a half months until the November elections, so I think any polls this far out are not useful. Plus, Cooke is barely known at this point, and it was a newspaper poll on top of all that.

I'm thinking (hoping, really) that it'll end up 51-49 (or at least 49.6 to 49.4 or whatever), with Peter Cooke becoming Governor.

Well, if it helps any, you have the support and enthusiasm of your immediate neighbor. I would donate if I had any money to speak of.

Do you have 5 bucks? Donate that much.

No, seriously, if you've got any Utah relatives or friends, it'd be nice if you could tell them about Cooke. I understand that it's a longshot, but it'd be really nice if I didn't have to hear the old cliche of "Only Republicans win in Utah" again.

Matheson has already disproven that cliche

[JulioMadrid]

Hopefully, after this year's election.

With 65-27 poll and in Utah - i still heavily doubt... Though i would like to be proven wrong...

Well, it's still over 5 and a half months until the November elections, so I think any polls this far out are not useful. Plus, Cooke is barely known at this point, and it was a newspaper poll on top of all that.

I'm thinking (hoping, really) that it'll end up 51-49 (or at least 49.6 to 49.4 or whatever), with Peter Cooke becoming Governor.

Well, if it helps any, you have the support and enthusiasm of your immediate neighbor. I would donate if I had any money to speak of.

Do you have 5 bucks? Donate that much.

No, seriously, if you've got any Utah relatives or friends, it'd be nice if you could tell them about Cooke. I understand that it's a longshot, but it'd be really nice if I didn't have to hear the old cliche of "Only Republicans win in Utah" again.

Matheson has already disproven that cliche

Yes, and you [pioneer] want him to lose =/
Matherson is the only democrat who can win some statewide election in the next 4-12 years... I hope I'm wrong, but I'm from a place (Madrid) which is not likely to vote for the left, either. So, I understand your hope.

[Zioneer]

Well, it's not that I want Matheson to lose, it's that I don't like him and don't care if he wins or loses. If he wins, fine, maybe he'll vote 5% of what I'd like, since he's in an even more conservative district this time. If he loses, fine, it teaches the Utah Democrats that we can't rely on Matheson to be the Utah Democratic standard bearer, and it gives Utah a diverse Congresswomen who, though ideologically opposed to what I like, has done moderate things in the past (Mia Love raised taxes a couple of times as mayor, and has stayed mostly quiet on social issues). It's not like she'll be anything but a Tea Party puppet, but at least she'll probably come to her senses occasionally, with that record.

I still think Peter Cooke is going to win (or have a good chance of doing so) this year though.

[BaldEagle1991]

Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

Dude, don't be too overconfident, I said the same thing about my state when Bill White was running in 2010.

[JulioMadrid]

Well, it's not that I want Matheson to lose, it's that I don't like him and don't care if he wins or loses. If he wins, fine, maybe he'll vote 5% of what I'd like, since he's in an even more conservative district this time. If he loses, fine, it teaches the Utah Democrats that we can't rely on Matheson to be the Utah Democratic standard bearer, and it gives Utah a diverse Congresswomen who, though ideologically opposed to what I like, has done moderate things in the past (Mia Love raised taxes a couple of times as mayor, and has stayed mostly quiet on social issues). It's not like she'll be anything but a Tea Party puppet, but at least she'll probably come to her senses occasionally, with that record.

I still think Peter Cooke is going to win (or have a good chance of doing so) this year though.

If you want liberal democrats representing you, move to California. Utah may be a great state, too, but the best you can have is Jim Matherson. I know it's tough, but moderates and liberals CAN'T win there. I don't know how old are you, but you'd better move to a state which fits you politically speaking if you want your candidate to win someday...

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

Yes. But WHEN??

According to my trend calculations, 3020.

[Zioneer]

Just you wait, Utah is going to have a Democratic Governor.

Dude, don't be too overconfident, I said the same thing about my state when Bill White was running in 2010.

Well, I didn't exactly say WHEN Utah would have a Democratic Governor, but like I said, I'm hoping its after this year. More likely that it'll happen in 20 years or so, but hey, Cooke might get lucky.

Well, it's not that I want Matheson to lose, it's that I don't like him and don't care if he wins or loses. If he wins, fine, maybe he'll vote 5% of what I'd like, since he's in an even more conservative district this time. If he loses, fine, it teaches the Utah Democrats that we can't rely on Matheson to be the Utah Democratic standard bearer, and it gives Utah a diverse Congresswomen who, though ideologically opposed to what I like, has done moderate things in the past (Mia Love raised taxes a couple of times as mayor, and has stayed mostly quiet on social issues). It's not like she'll be anything but a Tea Party puppet, but at least she'll probably come to her senses occasionally, with that record.

I still think Peter Cooke is going to win (or have a good chance of doing so) this year though.

If you want liberal democrats representing you, move to California. Utah may be a great state, too, but the best you can have is Jim Matherson. I know it's tough, but moderates and liberals CAN'T win there. I don't know how old are you, but you'd better move to a state which fits you politically speaking if you want your candidate to win someday...

Look, I've explained this before; I get that Utah will never have California-style liberal Democrats. I get that by definition successful Utah Dems will have to be moderate. But that's just the point; moderate, not conservative. Before 2010, Matheson did not have to be as conservative as he voted. But he was, mainly because he's terrible at explaining any pretenses of moderation. Look, Utah voters are more moderate than you'd think; we hated the anti-sex education bill. We hated the school vouchers bill. We liked the Utah Compact. We fought in the 80s against Ronald Reagan's attempt to put the MX missiles in Utah. Many Utahns like the idea of anti-discrimination policies. Utahns really aren't as radically conservative as we're portrayed as (though most Utahns are still very conservative). Heck, about 20-25% more of the new REPUBLICAN delegates this year (to say nothing of the Democrats) have been describing themselves as "moderate".

We like the idea of moderation; Utahns just need a truly moderate (not conservative) Democrat to help the wording of moderate policies seem better than conservative policies. Matheson is bad at doing that, as he's much better at "remember my dad? He was awesome and moderate! Also, vote for me because the only guy is crazy" than actually explaining why he's a good candidate. This lack of good explanation for moderate platforms is something that Utah Democrats have been lacking in for a while, but like I've been saying, Cooke is good at this, so that's why I have faith (heh) in him.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well I think the only hope for the Dems in Utah is the growing Hispanic population in much of the West, but I have a strong feeling that many of them are Mormons who already converted in Latin America. 

[cope1989]

Well, it's not that I want Matheson to lose, it's that I don't like him and don't care if he wins or loses. If he wins, fine, maybe he'll vote 5% of what I'd like, since he's in an even more conservative district this time. If he loses, fine, it teaches the Utah Democrats that we can't rely on Matheson to be the Utah Democratic standard bearer, and it gives Utah a diverse Congresswomen who, though ideologically opposed to what I like, has done moderate things in the past (Mia Love raised taxes a couple of times as mayor, and has stayed mostly quiet on social issues). It's not like she'll be anything but a Tea Party puppet, but at least she'll probably come to her senses occasionally, with that record.

I still think Peter Cooke is going to win (or have a good chance of doing so) this year though.

I know how you feel. I think it's even more frustrating being a Democrat in Georgia. We have the demographics to win statewide, but out party is in shambles and no one gives us a chance. It's gotten to the point where Republicans are pretty much assumed the winners before the campaign even starts. So democratic voters get lazy and the Republicans in power don't think anyone will ever keep them in check.

I think eventually there will be a day of reckoning here in GA though, when the demographics catch up with the Republicans and they'll be blindsided, I just don't know when that will be. And I think that eventually the Republicans will get to a point when they're considered too conservative even for Utah and the dems will make a comeback of sorts.

I heard somewhere that people who move into the urban areas in Utah from elsewhere almost immediately start voting Democrat, since the GOP there is almost entirely associated with Mormons. Maybe eventually Utah will hit parity, when dem voting outsiders will rival the Mormons.

[Zioneer]

What's interesting about Utah politics this year is that Utah Democrats finally realized that you need Mormons to win in Utah; they've gone all-out in appealing to moderate Mormons. All of the major state-wide candidates (Governor, Senate, Congress, even Salt Lake County Mayor) are devout Mormons and talk about how their faith informs their politics, there's over 1250 members of the LDS Democrat (or "LDS Dem") Caucus, and even the openly gay Utah Democratic Chairman Jim Dabakis is very publicly eager to get Mormons into the Democratic party. And I hate to use personal anecdotes, but when I was at the state Democratic Convention as a volunteer, I heard dozens and dozens of people who weren't LDS Dem Caucus members talk about how they were tired of how right-wing the Republicans had become.

Compounding this is stuff like the school vouchers and anti-sex ed bills that are an issue this year, which even Mormons tend to hate. It's not like Mormons will flock to the Democrats, but all these events and appeals could combine to a much closer race than anyone could have thought possible, even with Romney on the top of the national GOP ticket. In fact, with Romney at the top of the ticket, it could cause politically disinterested Mormons to finally figure out what the fuss is with politics, and there's a small chance that a few will go Democratic.

[Zioneer]

The one gubernatorial poll continues to show the Utah gubernatorial race to be incredibly depressing for anyone who isn't a Republican. Just an FYI, if anybody cares. Utah politics make me sad.

[Zioneer]

Cooke shows his education plan off while criticizing the Utah legislature.

And that's all I'll post for now, since there doesn't seem to be much interest in this; this is probably the most exciting thing in several months regarding the gubernatorial race, and even it isn't that interesting.

[JulioMadrid]

So, even you recognize the election won't be exciting. That means Hebert may win +60%

[Zioneer]

So, even you recognize the election won't be exciting. That means Hebert may win +60%

Not quite; I get the feeling that Cooke might hit 40%, but I'm pretty sure he won't win. It's incredibly frustrating because Cooke is one of the best Democratic candidates we've had in years, but he still isn't doing well against Herbert, or so the singular poll that's been released says. And since that single poll (done before the state conventions even happened) says Herbert will crush Cooke, no pollster wants to try again, even if Cooke is doing better than before. And if Cooke isn't doing better than before, then there's less excitement and thus less of a chance of Cooke winning.

It's a vicious cycle.