Ad Spending from WAP

[Beet]

http://polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising/

The 46-44 Kerry in Ohio (3-10 to 3-22) may have something to do with the fact that in the same period (3-6 to 3-22) Democratic supporters were slightly outspending Bush. Not that polls mean anything now, but spending can show some of the campaigns current strategies.

         BUSH      KERRY+527s     
     Spots   Spending    Spots  Spending   
FL (27)   2,888  $2,850,000   1,462 $1,325,000
PA (21)   2,007   2,255,000   1,851  1,765,000
MI (17)   1,227   1,250,000   922    960,000
OH (20)   1,603   1,220,000   1,978  1,335,000   
AZ (10)     808     840,000   868    925,000
MO (11)   1,088     865,000   1,112    930,000
WI (10)   1,237     775,000   1,033    540,000
WA (11)     938     810,000   364    630,000
MN (10)     369     625,000   434    610,000
IA (7)       918     530,000   928    485,000
NH (4)      776     470,000   296    230,000
NV (5)       480     430,000   450    315,000
ME (4)       380     355,000   442    405,000
NM (5)       390     320,000   378    345,000
OR (7)       496     225,000   532    250,000
AR (6)       275     200,000   379    255,000
WV (5)       272      95,000   546    140,000
CABLE       398     900,000     0        0

TOTAL    16,554  15,015,000      13,980 11,440,000

[zachman]

I will critique the candidates spending:
Kerry- Don't bother spending in Missouri and Arkansas, Bush will win them. Similarly don't spend much in Maine and Washington, you've already won there. Advertise in Louisiana and Colorado now. You need to consolidate the ABB people. DO this by speaking and coming out with bold new policies like a college funding program, similar to Edwards.

Bush- You have great ads, so spending on these should be somewhat effective. A smart choice to focus on the big three from 2000: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Your spending should be focused on creating local organizations that recruit new supporters.

[Beet]

I will critique the candidates spending:
Kerry- Don't bother spending in Missouri and Arkansas, Bush will win them. Similarly don't spend much in Maine and Washington, you've already won there. Advertise in Louisiana and Colorado now.

A smart choice to focus on the big three from 2000: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Your spending should be focused on creating local organizations that recruit new supporters.

That's funny, these were the exact same three states that the media was saying were the most important on election night 2000. However I do think it's funny you think Kerry shouldn't spend in Missouri or Arkansas BUT should spend in Colorado and Louisiana. If he has a chance in the latter two states, he has a chance in the former two. But I don't think he should be spending in any of these states, to be honest. I agree with you on Washington and Maine but Kerry has to put at least some money in those states to respond to Bush's moves.

[Gustaf]

I will critique the candidates spending:
Kerry- Don't bother spending in Missouri and Arkansas, Bush will win them. Similarly don't spend much in Maine and Washington, you've already won there. Advertise in Louisiana and Colorado now. You need to consolidate the ABB people. DO this by speaking and coming out with bold new policies like a college funding program, similar to Edwards.

Bush- You have great ads, so spending on these should be somewhat effective. A smart choice to focus on the big three from 2000: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Your spending should be focused on creating local organizations that recruit new supporters.

Aren't you forgetting Ohio?

I think both sides should focus on the steel states and Florida.

[zachman]

I should find Shaheen and complain about the Missouri spending, I think that his strategists are crazy to advertise there.

[opebo]

I will critique the candidates spending:
Kerry- Don't bother spending in Missouri and Arkansas, Bush will win them. Similarly don't spend much in Maine and Washington, you've already won there. Advertise in Louisiana and Colorado now.

A smart choice to focus on the big three from 2000: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Your spending should be focused on creating local organizations that recruit new supporters.

That's funny, these were the exact same three states that the media was saying were the most important on election night 2000. However I do think it's funny you think Kerry shouldn't spend in Missouri or Arkansas BUT should spend in Colorado and Louisiana. If he has a chance in the latter two states, he has a chance in the former two. But I don't think he should be spending in any of these states, to be honest. I agree with you on Washington and Maine but Kerry has to put at least some money in those states to respond to Bush's moves.

Kerry has minimal chances in MO, AR, CO, and LA.  Really virtually no chance in the later three.

[zachman]

Of the four states you listed Opebo LA is the most likely for Kerry. CO could happen, but the others would require a landslide.

[Beet]

Do you really think LA could go for Kerry? Remember that stands for Louisiana not Los Angeles.

[zachman]

I'd like to see the first poll there, but yes. The democrats there have a strong state organization. Its still pretty unlikely, but in comparison to AR and MO, I would bet it would be the closest.

[opebo]

LA will go strongly/reliably for Bush.

[Gustaf]

LA will go strongly/reliably for Bush.

That's saying too much I think...a margin of 7-10% for Bush seems likely, and I wouldn't call that strong.

[opebo]

LA will go strongly/reliably for Bush.

That's saying too much I think...a margin of 7-10% for Bush seems likely, and I wouldn't call that strong.

I guess being from bellweather Missouri a margin of 7-10% sounds strong

[Gustaf]

LA will go strongly/reliably for Bush.

That's saying too much I think...a margin of 7-10% for Bush seems likely, and I wouldn't call that strong.

I guess being from bellweather Missouri a margin of 7-10% sounds strong

Yeah.

I'd call below 5% tossup, 5-10 lean and 10+ strong, roughly. maybe the lean should go as far as 12, or there should be a 3rd category.