Crazy like a fox.
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Author Topic: Crazy like a fox.  (Read 1767 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: March 18, 2012, 07:28:25 PM »

Romney is going to romp to victory in Puerto Rico. Santorum "campaigns" there for two days. Most notable take aways from his time there: saying the island must adopt English as the official language for statehood and lounging shirtless by the pool. And he forces the frontrunner to chase him there!

It should have been obvious to us from the start. Santorum is forcing Mitt to play his game and watching the worst frontrunner is a generation have to adapt to it is priceless. Crazy like a fox...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2012, 07:30:42 PM »

Forces? Santorum didn't even have a delegate slate in PR for Pete's sake!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2012, 07:32:18 PM »

Forces? Santorum didn't even have a delegate slate in PR for Pete's sake!

...and you're proving my point. Mitt didn't have to go. You think he would have went all the way out there instead of solidifying Illinois if he thought PR was a lock?
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2012, 07:35:26 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2012, 07:37:27 PM by Torie »

Rick's most "clever" strategy kept him away from Illinois for two days - a state whose primary at this juncture at least to me, is clearly the second most important after Florida. If Romney romps in Illinois, the mathematics really gets prohibitive against forcing a negotiated convention - as opposed to this all ending in June. And this combined with Rick talking up his chances in Illinois? Rick also wasted time in that chaotic mess known as Missouri. Somebody is crazy, I agree.

Stay tuned for the PPP Illinois poll. It will be with us soon - very soon.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2012, 07:36:33 PM »

He was in and out. Though admittedly had I been Mitt's scheduler I would've penciled in Louisiana rather than PR.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2012, 07:37:22 PM »

If PPP is correct, Romney is surging in Illinois anyway. The only way it might matter is if Romney gets 49% and that extra day would have gotten him over 50%. Unless you win something as result, a subterfuge is just an exercise in futility with no purpose motivating it, having been achieved.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2012, 07:42:42 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2012, 07:44:55 PM by Torie »

If PPP is correct, Romney is surging in Illinois anyway. The only way it might matter is if Romney gets 49% and that extra day would have gotten him over 50%. Unless you win something as result, a subterfuge is just an exercise in futility with no purpose motivating it, having been achieved.

Illinois I don't think is a 50% threshold state (I would be quite surprised if Mittens broke 50% anyway). The at large delegates per Green Papers, can support whomever they want, and they are chosen by the party bosses. So it is more of a first past the post state, per CD, and maybe statewide (the party bosses might be a bit more likely not to stack the deck with Mittens supporters if he loses to Rick). What Rick really needs to show, is that he is cutting into the Mittens demographic. And if he wins Illinois, that would generate a lot of money for him, and might interfere with Mittens' money machine.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2012, 07:57:33 PM »

Santorum was dumb for going to PR and Romney even dumber for following him.

And BTW, I never thought that Santorum had much of a chance in Illinois.
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RI
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« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2012, 08:28:53 PM »

And BTW, I never thought that Santorum had much of a chance in Illinois.

Downstate candidates generally need to run up huge margins in their home turf even in Republican primaries to win against a Chicago/collar county candidate (unless vote splitting occurs, which won't happen here). Santorum simply can't do that. He shore up his CDs downstate and focus more on Louisiana and Wisconsin.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2012, 09:15:18 PM »

Santorum won't have any problem winning WI. Romney needs to focus on MD, I don't understand why the concensus is that he's favored there.
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Meeker
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2012, 09:21:34 PM »

I don't see how Santorum is favored in Wisconsin.

Keep in mind he's yet to win a primary outside of the South.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2012, 09:26:29 PM »

I don't see how Santorum is favored in Wisconsin.

Keep in mind he's yet to win a primary outside of the South.

Wisconsin isn't as urban-centric as Ohio and has a lot of similarities to Minnesota and the Michigan UP, which he did win.
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Meeker
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2012, 09:28:42 PM »

I don't see how Santorum is favored in Wisconsin.

Keep in mind he's yet to win a primary outside of the South.

Wisconsin isn't as urban-centric as Ohio and has a lot of similarities to Minnesota and the Michigan UP, which he did win.

I agree he'll do well in the area near the U.P. I suspect Milwaukee and its suburbs will be his downfall though.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2012, 09:31:16 PM »

I don't see how Santorum is favored in Wisconsin.

Keep in mind he's yet to win a primary outside of the South.

Wisconsin isn't as urban-centric as Ohio and has a lot of similarities to Minnesota and the Michigan UP, which he did win.

I agree he'll do well in the area near the U.P. I suspect Milwaukee and its suburbs will be his downfall though.

He'll certainly do poorly there, but I think they make up less of the vote than the suburban areas of Ohio or Michigan, so he should have a better shot in WI than in the aforementioned states.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2012, 09:40:39 PM »

What are you talking about?  And what is this supposed to say:

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2012, 09:53:58 PM »

What are you talking about?  And what is this supposed to say:

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What's that supposed to say? Uh...exactly what it says.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2012, 09:59:20 PM »

Guys, guys, let Phil his have his fantasy while he still can.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2012, 10:02:58 PM »

What are you talking about?  And what is this supposed to say:

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What's that supposed to say? Uh...exactly what it says.

It's not a sentence.  Is the "is" after "frontrunner" supposed to be "in"?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2012, 10:05:55 PM »

What are you talking about?  And what is this supposed to say:

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What's that supposed to say? Uh...exactly what it says.

It's not a sentence.  Is the "is" after "frontrunner" supposed to be "in"?

Ah, yes, thank you for pointing out the typo.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2012, 10:13:14 PM »

What are you talking about?  And what is this supposed to say:

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What's that supposed to say? Uh...exactly what it says.

It's not a sentence.  Is the "is" after "frontrunner" supposed to be "in"?

Ah, yes, thank you for pointing out the typo.

OK.  I figured, but the "n" and "s" aren't close, so I was just checking. Smiley
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2012, 01:02:02 AM »

Forces? Santorum didn't even have a delegate slate in PR for Pete's sake!

...and you're proving my point. Mitt didn't have to go. You think he would have went all the way out there instead of solidifying Illinois if he thought PR was a lock?

At this point, it looks like he didn't have to solidify Illinois.  When Romney beats Santorum in Illinois, that'll be the straw to break Rick's back.
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bgwah
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2012, 01:05:02 AM »

Am I the only one getting "Santorum only down 4" vibes from this thread?

I guess this race really is over. Sad
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2012, 01:15:23 AM »

Apparently Santorum doesn't even have a pollster. So there was no one to tell Rick he was wasting his time.
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Meeker
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2012, 01:18:01 AM »

Apparently Santorum doesn't even have a pollster. So there was no one to tell Rick he was wasting his time.

Clearly Romney didn't poll Puerto Rico either. If his campaign was aware he was that far ahead they would've been in Illinois all last week.
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BRTD
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2012, 01:28:45 AM »

LOL.

Re: Wisconsin, I think it's worth noting the GOP voting base there probably has unions on the brain now, making the myth that Santorum is even relatively pro-labor more potentially toxic there (buying it is beyond idiotic, but Romney has done a pretty good job getting the GOP lemmings to do so in previous states).
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