In Need of a Game Change, Santorum Plays Small Ball

[Torie]

I alluded to this puzzling strategy by Mr. Santorum, and now someone else on the nets has expanded on the theme, as the oxygen supply wanes due to media attention (aka free advertising) commencing to drift away from the Pub contretemps.

Is Rick just going through the motions now, or is he smarter than us all? 

[Likely Voter]

Rick had his chances in MI and OH for game changers. It is hard to see a place now where he can pull one off, but some possible future game changers could be:
- Win IL
- Win WI AND MD on April 3 (he isn't on ballot in DC)
- Win PA, DE and one of NY, CT, RI on April 24.
- Win every state big in May (including OR)...and real big delegate win in TX

That all leads to giving him enough momentum to stop Romney from getting to 1144 on June 5th, which means Rick needs to compete in CA and hold down Romney's delegate gain along with winning a couple of other states on that day (MT and NM for example).

Looking at that todo list, it may be that inTrade is pricing a brokered convention too high at 18%.

Right now I think the only person who could do a game change is Romney. He could either overperform (like winning every race between now and May including PA). Or he could have some colossal gaffe/revelation that gives Rick a new lease on life.

[Wisconsin+17]

Santorum whiffs at the top of the 4th with 1 out.

Media declares game over.

[J. J.]

I think that there is still a slight chance for Romney to shut the process down.

He wins IL big.  He goes into LA and gets a plurality of the delegates.  I thing at that point, it is game over for Santorum, so I don't really blame him for going to LA.

Basically, if Santorum loses both LA and WI, he is finished.  He should suspend after a symbolic victory in PA (like Simon in 1988).

[Wisconsin+17]

I think that there is still a slight chance for Romney to shut the process down.

He wins IL big.  He goes into LA and gets a plurality of the delegates.  I thing at that point, it is game over for Santorum, so I don't really blame him for going to LA.

Basically, if Santorum loses both LA and WI, he is finished.  He should suspend after a symbolic victory in PA (like Simon in 1988).

And if Santorum wins in IL, will Romney suspend?

[Eraserhead]

I think that there is still a slight chance for Romney to shut the process down.

He wins IL big.  He goes into LA and gets a plurality of the delegates.  I thing at that point, it is game over for Santorum, so I don't really blame him for going to LA.

Basically, if Santorum loses both LA and WI, he is finished.  He should suspend after a symbolic victory in PA (like Simon in 1988).

And if Santorum wins in IL, will Romney suspend?

Romney has a big delegate lead (as well as a huge lead in the popular vote).

[memphis]

Rick just needs to get up and say that the rest of America deserves a chance to make a decision. He needs to imply strongly that Romney doesn't think that voters in the later states deserve a chance to vote. Nothing appeals to conservatives like victimization.

[Wisconsin+17]

I think that there is still a slight chance for Romney to shut the process down.

He wins IL big.  He goes into LA and gets a plurality of the delegates.  I thing at that point, it is game over for Santorum, so I don't really blame him for going to LA.

Basically, if Santorum loses both LA and WI, he is finished.  He should suspend after a symbolic victory in PA (like Simon in 1988).

And if Santorum wins in IL, will Romney suspend?

Romney has a big delegate lead (as well as a huge lead in the popular vote).

So it *isn't* a gamechanger. Gotcha.