Illinois Primary Results

[Torie]

wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

The article did not imply that it had any exit poll data. It just said that if the polls are right, the exit polls will declare a winner without any votes tabulated, or not many. So essentially we "know" absolutely nothing.

[ajb]

wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

No, it doesn't...

Yes it does:

While it will make for a late night for election workers and perhaps some journalists, there probably won’t be a lot of suspense about the outcome of the race, thanks to exit polling and Mitt Romney’s significant lead over his Republican rivals in recent polls in the state.

They are not saying, "exit polls tight and we could be up all night."

It's a badly written sentence, since that "thanks to exit polling" clause could either mean "thanks to the exit polling, which we've seen, and which is favorable to Romney," OR "thanks to the exit polling, which is likely to give us conclusive results before the delayed vote counting is complete."

I suspect the latter, since it's too early in the day for exit polling to be really meaningful, especially given that we all now know that Romney's been doing better in the early exit polling than in the final exit poll numbers at the end of the night.

All that said, I think we'd all be shocked at this point if Romney didn't win IL.

[Mr. Morden]

Again, the media doesn't actually get access to the exit polls until 5pm, when Edison Media Research releases their early results to the media pool.  So any supposed numbers being reported before that are fake.  This is the way it's been in every single American election since 2006, following the 2004 exit polling fiasco.  Do we have to go over this every time?

[argentarius]

When do polls close?

[Keystone Phil]

When do polls close?

8 PM Eastern

[Keystone Phil]

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

[Alcon]

sketchy.

[Bacon King]

Just skimmed a Google News search to see what I could find about turnout. Posted it in the other thread:

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"

So turnout appears to be average only in the lower income (and fairly evangelical) counties that have turnout reports: Knox and Champaign. As you get closer to Chicago from there, turnout falls, reaching abysmal levels once you reach Cook County itself.

[Mr. Morden]

Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.

[Torie]

Just skimmed a Google News search to see what I could find about turnout. Posted it in the other thread:

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"

So turnout appears to be average only in the lower income (and fairly evangelical) counties that have turnout reports: Knox and Champaign. As you get closer to Chicago from there, turnout falls, reaching abysmal levels once you reach Cook County itself.

Champaign was an average Huckabee county (home to the U of Illinois of course), and Knox just a tad above.

[Eraserhead]

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

[Alcon]

I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

[Boris]

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.

[J. J.]

I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.

[Eraserhead]

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.

Might as well.

[Alcon]

Go for it, Boris.

Also, lol @ Bill Spetrino Polling & Investments Inc. LLC

[Bacon King]

Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.

No idea; most didn't specify, but I'm assuming that comparing past primaries (and talks of "record lows") also includes past races when only one party had a contest. Also to note for Champaign County- if their estimate holds up, that'll only be an 8% vote decrease from 2008.

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

1. Pretty much all Illinois schools are on spring break this week, so Paul's biggest voter base probably isn't even in the state
2. Paul also overperformed among early voters, per PPP's poll, and presumably those aren't counted in the exit poll

[You kip if you want to...]

Iowa - Santorum down in the polls
Colorado/Minnesota/Missouri - Santorum comes from nowhere, down in the polls
Alabama/Mississippi - Underestimated by the polls

Are we seeing a pattern yet?

[Torie]

Here is some early exit poll data that isn't what anyone is looking for, except 56% say the economy is their top issue, which voters tended to go for Mittens in the past. Other than that, 40%+ of both Romney and Santorum voters have reservations about their chosen candidate. Who knew?  

[redcommander]

Iowa - Santorum down in the polls
Colorado/Minnesota/Missouri - Santorum comes from nowhere, down in the polls
Alabama/Mississippi - Underestimated by the polls

Are we seeing a pattern yet?

He's not winning the state, and I'll eat my shoes if he does.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.

Go go go!

[muon2]

Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.

No idea; most didn't specify, but I'm assuming that comparing past primaries (and talks of "record lows") also includes past races when only one party had a contest. Also to note for Champaign County- if their estimate holds up, that'll only be an 8% vote decrease from 2008.

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

1. Pretty much all Illinois schools are on spring break this week, so Paul's biggest voter base probably isn't even in the state
2. Paul also overperformed among early voters, per PPP's poll, and presumably those aren't counted in the exit poll

Also, Paul's presence in terms of signs and volunteers at other political events is noticeably less than in 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.

But they're only going to release demographic data and such.  And stuff like "50% of left-handed dwarfs voted for Romney."  They don't release the toplines until polls close in the state.

[J. J.]

I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.

But they're only going to release demographic data and such.  And stuff like "50% of left-handed dwarfs voted for Romney."  They don't release the toplines until polls close in the state.

I don't know, but some of the link Torrie posted might be indicative.  The economy was a big issue.  Electability was the most important factor.

[Eraserhead]

Which candidate has the best shot at beating Obama?

Romney voters:

Romney 93%
Santorum 1%

Santorum voters:

Santorum 58%
Romney 28% (I think)

They put this up on MSNBC.