Illinois Primary Results
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Author Topic: Illinois Primary Results  (Read 15737 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #50 on: March 20, 2012, 05:05:43 PM »

As others have mentioned already, CNN is confirming that the turnout in Chicago and the collar counties is pretty terrible.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #51 on: March 20, 2012, 05:06:50 PM »

MR45.7% NG13.0% RP:09.4% RS31.9%
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ajb
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« Reply #52 on: March 20, 2012, 05:08:49 PM »

Which candidate has the best shot at beating Obama?

Romney voters:

Romney 93%
Santorum 1%

Santorum voters:

Santorum 58%
Romney 28% (I think)

They put this up on MSNBC.

Looking at the Alabama exit polls, Santorum got 96% of the 23% of voters who thought he had the best chance of beating Obama. So about 22% of the total number of voters were Santorum voters who thought that he had the best chance of beating Obama, which, divided by his 35% vote share, suggests that about 63% of Santorum voters in Alabama thought he had the best chance of beating Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/al

59% of AL voters thought the economy was the most important issue, and 35% thought that being able to beat Obama was the most important candidate quality.
All these numbers are useful context for what they're releasing from IL.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #53 on: March 20, 2012, 05:10:03 PM »


Where did you get that?
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Boris
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« Reply #54 on: March 20, 2012, 05:11:47 PM »

How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #55 on: March 20, 2012, 05:13:34 PM »

CNN is flashing a bunch of stuff from the exits now. Looks like a big Romney win.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #56 on: March 20, 2012, 05:14:52 PM »

Here is some early exit poll data that isn't what anyone is looking for, except 56% say the economy is their top issue, which voters tended to go for Mittens in the past. Other than that, 40%+ of both Romney and Santorum voters have reservations about their chosen candidate. Who knew?  Smiley



Thanks for the link!

Most important candidate quality:

Can defeat Obama: 37%
true conservative: 20%
strong character: 20%
right experience: 17%

"Can Defeat Obama" has lately been like like 60% Romney to 25% Santorum in exit polls
"True Conservative"; 55% Santorum to 20% Romney
"Strong Character"; 60% Santorum to 20% Romney
"Right Experience"; 60% Romney to 20% Santorum

...mathing that out, that gives a total of 43% Romney to 38% Santorum. (Note, if this ends up being accurate, it's probably more coincidence than anything else, this is very rough estimates).
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Meeker
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« Reply #57 on: March 20, 2012, 05:16:26 PM »

Looking like another night of "Why can't Mitt close the deal?" stories!
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Matthew
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« Reply #58 on: March 20, 2012, 05:21:01 PM »

Looking at the numbers I doubt Romney beats Santorum by more then 5-6 points. Santorum holds conservative, under 50,000 a year and rural(4 points). This pretty much says that Santorum will hold the 12, 15 and much of the central, southern parts of the state. Not looking like a total blow out.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #59 on: March 20, 2012, 05:22:56 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2012, 05:26:46 PM by Eraserhead »

I'm guessing it'll be something like an 8-12% Romney win based on the exits CNN are flashing. Hopefully the exits are underestimating Santorum again though.

I also doubt they'll feel comfortable enough to call it as soon as the polls close.
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Torie
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« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2012, 05:24:17 PM »

I'm guessing it'll be something like an 8-12% Romney win based on the exits CNN are flashing. Hopefully the exits are underestimating Santorum again though.

I came up with 10%  Smiley
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #61 on: March 20, 2012, 05:24:46 PM »

Looking like another night of "Why can't Mitt close the deal?" stories!

Let's just hope the southern counties report first and the Chicago+suburb counties take until late in the night to start reporting.
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Torie
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« Reply #62 on: March 20, 2012, 05:46:31 PM »

Below are some crosstabs from the PPP poll which has Mittens up 15%, to give some context to the CNN exit poll flashes of the split between very conservative voters for Rick, and moderate-liberals for Mitt. The key missing ingredient which CNN is holding back are the somewhat conservative voters. Smiley




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J. J.
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« Reply #63 on: March 20, 2012, 06:02:17 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2012, 06:04:06 PM by J. J. »

Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #64 on: March 20, 2012, 06:02:59 PM »

...........

No exit polls have been released yet. Stop saying false things.
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Matthew
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« Reply #65 on: March 20, 2012, 06:03:16 PM »

Very conservative on cnn appears to be Santorum 48% and Romney 34%=14 points. PPP shown 15 with that poll.
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J. J.
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« Reply #66 on: March 20, 2012, 06:04:40 PM »

...........

No exit polls have been released yet. Stop saying false things.

It is on CNN.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #67 on: March 20, 2012, 06:06:59 PM »

Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.

Remember when Romney was up by 7 in the MS exit poll? Or would you rather just forget about that? Smiley
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #68 on: March 20, 2012, 06:07:11 PM »

Feeling pretty good about my prediction now.
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J. J.
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« Reply #69 on: March 20, 2012, 06:11:26 PM »

Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.

Remember when Romney was up by 7 in the MS exit poll? Or would you rather just forget about that? Smiley

No, but I do remember when he was up in MS on Rasmussen and I didn't believe it.

BTW:  AP now lists Romney with 14 delegates in MS and Santorum with 13 (RNC member).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #70 on: March 20, 2012, 06:26:37 PM »

How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.

As I understand it, the actual primary is just a beauty contest. The Congressional district-level delegates are being elected separately. The statewide delegates will be selected by a party convention later on.
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muon2
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« Reply #71 on: March 20, 2012, 06:52:15 PM »

How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.

As I understand it, the actual primary is just a beauty contest. The Congressional district-level delegates are being elected separately. The statewide delegates will be selected by a party convention later on.

The statewide delegate selection is determined at a convention, but if it runs like four years ago a slate will be determined by party leaders and approved by the elected delegates.
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J. J.
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« Reply #72 on: March 20, 2012, 07:01:01 PM »

45 R 35 S 12 G 8 P early exit polls- CNN.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #73 on: March 20, 2012, 07:01:38 PM »

Exit poll is now out:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/il
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izixs
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« Reply #74 on: March 20, 2012, 07:02:15 PM »

Looking good for my prediction score. (Romney >40%)
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