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Author Topic: Illinois Primary Results  (Read 6625 times)
muon2
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« on: March 20, 2012, 11:46:03 am »
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Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2012, 11:49:40 am »
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"A long night," eh? Perfect...perfect...
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Matthew
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2012, 11:52:24 am »
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I hope Romney wins it by enough to make him more of a typical front runner. Like McCain 2008, George w Bush 2000 or Dole 1996. About time for Romney to wins it by 20 points to start winning states from here on out. Time to redirect our fire power towards Obama! We can't afford a 60 day election season against Obama!
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2012, 12:17:28 pm »
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@numbernerds: Reports of extremely low turn out in Romney strongholds in and around Chicago. #ILPrimary
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2012, 12:29:15 pm »
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Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2012, 12:49:12 pm »
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Romney should just drop out. Let the tea party have the GOP, they seem to be on the offensive anyway, so another Obama term will be good for them.

And once again, these poor showings are Romney's fault, he is simply running a terrible campaign.
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Matthew
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2012, 12:55:23 pm »
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Romney should just drop out. Let the tea party have the GOP, they seem to be on the offensive anyway, so another Obama term will be good for them.

And once again, these poor showings are Romney's fault, he is simply running a terrible campaign.

You could say that about the whole republican field: Romney, Santorum, Paul and sadly Gingrich. The party is so divided I seriously doubt we can beat Obama, but if we wait until after the convention we're really in trouble. 
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2012, 01:26:22 pm »
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Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 01:28:21 pm by Torie »Logged
argentarius
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2012, 01:36:20 pm »
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Romney seems to have all the momentum going in. Only thing that could possibly save Santorum is a surge like the one in Minnesota/Colorado when he massively increased his support just before the contests.
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2012, 01:36:47 pm »
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Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.

DuPage is one of 65 affected counties. I found this noontime statement from the DuPage Election Commission:

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   Problem confined to 23 locations out of 360. Small # of ballots at those 23 locations were too wide to be counted. New ballots are being taken to all those locations and all affected ballots will be counted under statutory procedures that judges are trained to implement.

    Entire situation expected to be completely under control by 1 p.m.

    All votes will be counted.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2012, 01:42:09 pm »
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Romney seems to have all the momentum going in. Only thing that could possibly save Santorum is a surge like the one in Minnesota/Colorado when he massively increased his support just before the contests.

If it it close party leaders should try to force Romney into dropping out.
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muon2
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2012, 01:45:38 pm »
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Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)

Romney has some prominent pols, and so does Gingrich downstate. Not so much for Santorum, who had no organization here until Cain dropped out. Most of his delegates are ones originally set for Cain.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2012, 01:56:30 pm »
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Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)

Romney has some prominent pols, and so does Gingrich downstate. Not so much for Santorum, who had no organization here until Cain dropped out. Most of his delegates are ones originally set for Cain.

I hope the Whack-a-Mole does not jump up again.
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J. J.

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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2012, 01:57:43 pm »
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re The loophole primary.  Glancing at the delegate candidate list

CD1: Romney,Paul,Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.  The Libertarian Candidate in the 2004 Senate race won by Obama is running as a Paul delegate, but that is fairly meaningless.

CD2: Romney,Paul,Gingrich and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD3:Romney,Paul,Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--Cook County Commissioner Liz Doody Gorman is running as a Romney delegate, but her conty board district is much much smaller than the 3rd CD, so it may give her a little boost because of name familiarity in media reports, but not too much.

CD4:Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 2 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD5: Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  State Rep Patricia Bellock and former Rep Walter Dudycz are running as Romney delegates, but neither has universal name recognition.

CD 6: Romney,Paul,Santorum, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD 7:Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 2 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy

CD 8: Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  State reps Dennis Reboletti and Franco Coladipietro are running as Romney delegates, but again niether has a huge amount of recognition.

CD 9 Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Roemer have 3 candidates on the ballot, while Rick Perry has 1.  The only candidate with any recognition is probably Penny Pullen running for Santorum who is well known as a pro-life candidate.

CD-10 Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are running 3 candidates each.  The only ones with any recognition--Steve Kim who lost the attorney General race in 2010 is running as a Romney delegate and Dan Sugrue who lost a legislative race is arunning for Santorum.

CD 11: Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are running 3 candidates.  The only one with any recognition is tea party darling Cedra Crenshaw who got on Fox National news over her ballot acces battle is running for Gingrich.  Other than that--nobody noteable.

CD 12: Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  The only one with any recognition is State Rep Mike Bost  running for Gingrich

CD 13: Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are running 3 candidates a piece.  State Rep Bill Mitchell is running as a Romney delegate while State Rep Wayne Rosenthal is running as a Gingrich delegate.


CD 14  Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  Dennis Hastert's son Ethan is running as a Romney delegate, and former Senate, Sec of State candidate Al Salvi is running as a Santorum delegate.

CD 15: Romney,Paul,Gingrich and Santorum are all running 4 candidates.  State Senators David Leuchtefeld and Dale Righter along with former Rep Frank Watson are running as Romney delegatesand former State Rep Bill Black is running for Gingrich.

CD 16:  Romney, Paul, gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  State Treasurer and Romney campaign chair Dan Rutherford is running as a Romney delegate.

CD 17:  Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  Congressional loser (2004/2006) andrea Lane Zinga is running as a Romney delegate

CD 18: Romney, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum are running 4 candidates each and there is one candidate for an uncommitted slot in this district.  State Reps Rich Brauer and Jill Tracy are on Romney's slate, but other than that nothing to see.

  In conclusion, the State Treasurer and several incumbent and former reps and senators on the ballot, but nobody who is going to drive a huge amount ticket splitting like Dennis Hastert did 4 years ago.  (He was elected as a delegate on the Romney slate even though McCain handily won the statewid beauty contest vote) If you really want to dig into the nittiy-gritty, then you can delve into the alternate delegate slates being voted on today as well..

Ill_Ind
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2012, 02:23:28 pm »
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http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.
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Matthew
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2012, 02:40:11 pm »
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I don't think we can beat Obama if we wait until September to have a canidate. Isn't looking good for us at all.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2012, 02:41:14 pm »
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I don't think we can beat Obama if we wait until September to have a canidate. Isn't looking good for us at all.

Agreed. Romney and Newt should really step aside as soon as possible.
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2012, 02:43:22 pm »
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Joke party.
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argentarius
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2012, 02:53:03 pm »
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What exit poll is this? If so, that's a disaster for Romney. He was up by 7 on Santorum in MS. 5 point win is weak for Mitt.
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2012, 02:55:51 pm »
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When do the polls close?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2012, 02:59:34 pm »

When do the polls close?

7pm Central / 8pm Eastern
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2012, 03:03:12 pm »
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wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak
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J. J.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2012, 03:08:02 pm »


The media doesn't get access to the exit polling until 5pm Eastern.  The comment in that story is just speculative.  Along the lines of "Romney's probably far enough ahead that they'll be able to call this on exit polling and early results....once we actually have those."
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« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2012, 03:08:19 pm »
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No, it doesn't...
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(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2012, 03:12:23 pm »
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Yes it does:

While it will make for a late night for election workers and perhaps some journalists, there probably won’t be a lot of suspense about the outcome of the race, thanks to exit polling and Mitt Romney’s significant lead over his Republican rivals in recent polls in the state.

They are not saying, "exit polls tight and we could be up all night."
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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