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Author Topic: Illinois Primary Results  (Read 6088 times)
muon2
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« Reply #125 on: March 20, 2012, 07:49:41 pm »
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Romney's delegate slates have now pulled ahead in all the Cook CDs.
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Torie
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« Reply #126 on: March 20, 2012, 07:49:56 pm »
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Rick is on track to winning Ill-15. That is about it for the moment. He still has a shot at 3 more, where he has delegates - maybe.

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J. J.
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« Reply #127 on: March 20, 2012, 07:50:27 pm »
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Santorum is cleaning up in the southern counties, like by 30 points.  Make that 40 points in Randolph.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 07:52:12 pm by J. J. »Logged
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« Reply #128 on: March 20, 2012, 07:52:57 pm »
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Intrade has a contract for Romney's margin of victory... 15% or more is trading at 45%... you guys think it will be that big? Something tells me it will end closer than that.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #129 on: March 20, 2012, 07:54:03 pm »
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Nearly everything that's in so far is from Cook County; it would be idiotic to try to extrapolate a final result from that.
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Torie
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« Reply #130 on: March 20, 2012, 07:54:49 pm »
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The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).
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Torie
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« Reply #131 on: March 20, 2012, 07:56:06 pm »
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Quote from: Reds4 on March 20, 2012, 07:52:57 pm
Intrade has a contract for Romney's margin of victory... 15% or more is trading at 45%... you guys think it will be that big? Something tells me it will end closer than that.

Putting aside the Adams thing, that percentage seems reasonable, maybe a tad high, but not by much.
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muon2
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« Reply #132 on: March 20, 2012, 07:59:21 pm »
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Quote from: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:54:49 pm
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).



Yes, but that sits in CD 18 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 08:07:55 pm by muon2 »Logged


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« Reply #133 on: March 20, 2012, 08:01:16 pm »
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This one is for Tagg Romney.
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ajb
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« Reply #134 on: March 20, 2012, 08:01:16 pm »
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I'm thinking the exit polls will hold, and this will settle down to somewhere around an 8% Romney win.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #135 on: March 20, 2012, 08:01:57 pm »
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Bunch of votes from LaSalle, very narrow Santorum lead.
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Torie
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« Reply #136 on: March 20, 2012, 08:03:14 pm »
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Quote from: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:59:21 pm
Quote from: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:54:49 pm
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).



Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 08:08:04 pm by Torie »Logged
retromike22
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« Reply #137 on: March 20, 2012, 08:05:18 pm »
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Quote from: Santorum: Change the existing delegate rules. Wah! Wah! Wah! on March 20, 2012, 08:01:16 pm
This one is for Tagg Romney.

Always. Win. Delegates.
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« Reply #138 on: March 20, 2012, 08:06:47 pm »
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Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 
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Colbert
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« Reply #139 on: March 20, 2012, 08:07:29 pm »
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If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?
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« Reply #140 on: March 20, 2012, 08:09:36 pm »
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Gloria Borger CNN

It used to be that the Romney campaign wanted Gingrich to stay in the race to split the conservative vote.  Now     they     don't     care.

With Gingrich out of the race, it will allow Romney to get to 1144 earlier.     
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #141 on: March 20, 2012, 08:09:42 pm »
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Quote from: Santorum: Change the existing delegate rules. Wah! Wah! Wah! on March 20, 2012, 08:06:47 pm
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 

Are you and JJ in some sort of spamming contest?
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Torie
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« Reply #142 on: March 20, 2012, 08:09:54 pm »
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Quote from: Santorum: Change the existing delegate rules. Wah! Wah! Wah! on March 20, 2012, 08:06:47 pm
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes.  

Are you an admirer of Borger? I find her superficial, and not very careful in separating her opinions, from how folks tend to actually vote, and why. In short, she's useless - at least for me.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 08:23:25 pm by Torie »Logged
Lief
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« Reply #143 on: March 20, 2012, 08:10:29 pm »
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Santorum has a majority in Adams county with 43% in.
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Reds4
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« Reply #144 on: March 20, 2012, 08:10:38 pm »
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Any guesses as to who finished third tonight?
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muon2
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« Reply #145 on: March 20, 2012, 08:11:16 pm »
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Quote from: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:03:14 pm
Quote from: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:59:21 pm
Quote from: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:54:49 pm
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).



Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.

BTW I meant CD 18.
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Colbert
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« Reply #146 on: March 20, 2012, 08:12:07 pm »
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Quote from: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:07:29 pm
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices
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netzero19
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« Reply #147 on: March 20, 2012, 08:14:59 pm »
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Quote from: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:12:07 pm
Quote from: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:07:29 pm
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices

If he gets 1164, he wins. You need to get above 1144 to get the nomination.
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Colbert
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« Reply #148 on: March 20, 2012, 08:15:12 pm »
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the red-dressed is the romney's wife?Huh


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!
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« Reply #149 on: March 20, 2012, 08:15:32 pm »
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Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on March 20, 2012, 08:09:42 pm
Quote from: Santorum: Change the existing delegate rules. Wah! Wah! Wah! on March 20, 2012, 08:06:47 pm
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 

Are you and JJ in some sort of spamming contest?

Just passing on interesting little statements from the "best political team on television", my friend, just passing on information for all to read.

Let them think of it what they may.
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