Illinois Primary Results

[Torie]

Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.

[Torie]

wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

The article did not imply that it had any exit poll data. It just said that if the polls are right, the exit polls will declare a winner without any votes tabulated, or not many. So essentially we "know" absolutely nothing.

[Torie]

Just skimmed a Google News search to see what I could find about turnout. Posted it in the other thread:

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"

So turnout appears to be average only in the lower income (and fairly evangelical) counties that have turnout reports: Knox and Champaign. As you get closer to Chicago from there, turnout falls, reaching abysmal levels once you reach Cook County itself.

Champaign was an average Huckabee county (home to the U of Illinois of course), and Knox just a tad above.

[Torie]

Here is some early exit poll data that isn't what anyone is looking for, except 56% say the economy is their top issue, which voters tended to go for Mittens in the past. Other than that, 40%+ of both Romney and Santorum voters have reservations about their chosen candidate. Who knew?  

[Torie]

I'm guessing it'll be something like an 8-12% Romney win based on the exits CNN are flashing. Hopefully the exits are underestimating Santorum again though.

I came up with 10% 

[Torie]

Below are some crosstabs from the PPP poll which has Mittens up 15%, to give some context to the CNN exit poll flashes of the split between very conservative voters for Rick, and moderate-liberals for Mitt. The key missing ingredient which CNN is holding back are the somewhat conservative voters.

[Torie]

One thing of note. The demographic/geographic  divide is muted - ala Mississippi and Alabama. In Chicagoland, Mittens is only winning by about 13% or something, and just down 5% with "rural" voters - only 10% of the voters are something, but where Rick runs best. So for purposes of winning CD's, Mittens' vote is well distributed. He still has a shot of winning 17 out of 18 CD's (with Mittens getting Ill-12 no matter who wins the popular vote there since Rick has no delegates filed there) with but a 10% margin with this distribution. My best guess would be 15-16 CD's go Mittens, if these exit poll numbers are right.

[Torie]

According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That must mean Rock Island, Moline and Rockford and the corn fields in-between.  But no, not 30%.  Something is wrong. But moving right along, that does put this CD in play (which is one of the 4 that were already in play):



and this one (which I also had in play), maybe.

[Torie]

WTF is John King smoking? He just said that Santorum has no chance to take Nebraska and South Dakota, while he considered himself "generous" by giving him West Virginia.

Whatever the strain, I want some.

[Torie]

@7.2 Lake R 56%, S 28%

Mitt's strongest county in the state. Of that, I am near certain. Lake is Torie country, and probably has more of my type of Pubs in some concentration than any other substantial county in the United States.

[Torie]

In Clay county deep down state the early vote is S 46, R 37. Thats less than 100 votes cast.

It is probably time to put up my silly little mappie again, which shows county names, and the Kirk colors - albeit those are with a 13% lead, rather than 10% statewide, but Mittens has lower percentage margins per the exit polls than Kirk over his combined opposition, so the county colors might be pretty good.

Clay is deep into Santorum country - very deep.

[Torie]

About 100 votes out of Peoria are also going 52 R 29 S.

That county will be quite diverse per precinct, I would think.

[Torie]

Logan @ 3.4 R 46 S. 37.  It is in the center of the state, north of Springfield.

A Kirk 50-55% county. So extrapolating, a bit better than the Kirk 13% statewide margin probably, which probably isn't happening unless the exit polls are a joke, again showing the more muted divide this time.

[Torie]

Rick is on track to winning Ill-15. That is about it for the moment. He still has a shot at 3 more, where he has delegates - maybe.

[Torie]

The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

[Torie]

Intrade has a contract for Romney's margin of victory... 15% or more is trading at 45%... you guys think it will be that big? Something tells me it will end closer than that.

Putting aside the Adams thing, that percentage seems reasonable, maybe a tad high, but not by much.

[Torie]

The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.

[Torie]

Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes.  

Are you an admirer of Borger? I find her superficial, and not very careful in separating her opinions, from how folks tend to actually vote, and why. In short, she's useless - at least for me.

[Torie]

Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.

[Torie]

Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.

other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.

Answer to my question - CD 16? Though no matter what, Romney will get at least one delegate there.

So I don't  have to look up numbers, and I know IL-13 isn't in play, Carbondale, Moline, Rockford and Quincy, whatever those numbers are.

[Torie]

Mittens is romping in Decautur (yes it is in the failure for Rick to file Ill-13), which is a blow to Rick. As Decatur and Rockford goes, so goes Moline/Rock Island?

[Torie]

I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too.

[Torie]

Off for my repast for 30 minutes. I leave it to Muon2 to project the remaining two CD's in my absence. I know he can do it!

[Torie]

I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too.

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could flip to a 1-2 split, or remotely a 3-0 split.
CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 or 4-0.

12 Rick delegates total per this, including I assume the 4 from IL-15? If so, Mittens beats my spreadsheet by 5 delegates.

Folks don't know how to transfer their votes to delegates I guess. What was the CD where Rick is missing a delegate?  I thought he had full slates in all but the four CD's, three safe Romney.

[Torie]

I wonder where Phil is..

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows.