Illinois Primary Results

[muon2]

Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

[muon2]

Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.

DuPage is one of 65 affected counties. I found this noontime statement from the DuPage Election Commission:

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[muon2]

Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)

Romney has some prominent pols, and so does Gingrich downstate. Not so much for Santorum, who had no organization here until Cain dropped out. Most of his delegates are ones originally set for Cain.

[muon2]

Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.

No idea; most didn't specify, but I'm assuming that comparing past primaries (and talks of "record lows") also includes past races when only one party had a contest. Also to note for Champaign County- if their estimate holds up, that'll only be an 8% vote decrease from 2008.

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

1. Pretty much all Illinois schools are on spring break this week, so Paul's biggest voter base probably isn't even in the state
2. Paul also overperformed among early voters, per PPP's poll, and presumably those aren't counted in the exit poll

Also, Paul's presence in terms of signs and volunteers at other political events is noticeably less than in 2008.

[muon2]

How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.

As I understand it, the actual primary is just a beauty contest. The Congressional district-level delegates are being elected separately. The statewide delegates will be selected by a party convention later on.

The statewide delegate selection is determined at a convention, but if it runs like four years ago a slate will be determined by party leaders and approved by the elected delegates.

[muon2]

Historically few counties will report before 8 pm here. The first load of votes will be early voting when it does show up (usually with 0 precincts reporting).

[muon2]

Cook county is showing about 800 votes so far. R 46%, S 31%, P 17%, G 6%.

[muon2]

CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.

[muon2]

In Clay county deep down state the early vote is S 46, R 37. Thats less than 100 votes cast.

[muon2]

CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.

7.2% of Lake County's actual precincts are included in the tally.  It's not just early votes.

I see that now. Thanks.

[muon2]

About 100 votes out of Peoria are also going 52 R 29 S.

[muon2]

Here's some delegate results:
CD 1 16% in ( 1 romney, 2 santorum )
CD 2 8% in ( 2 romney, 1 santorum)
CD 3 13% in ( 3 romney )
CD 4 23% in ( 2 romney )
CD 5 25% in (3 romney)

[muon2]

Early votes in DuPage are 55 R 27 S.

[muon2]

Romney's delegate slates have now pulled ahead in all the Cook CDs.

[muon2]

The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

Yes, but that sits in CD 18 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

[muon2]

The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.

BTW I meant CD 18.

[muon2]

Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.

other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.

[muon2]

Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.

other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.

Answer to my question - CD 16? Though no matter what, Romney will get at least one delegate there.

[muon2]

So I don't  have to look up numbers, and I know IL-13 isn't in play, Carbondale, Moline, Rockford and Quincy, whatever those numbers are.

That would be 12, 17, 16, and 18 corresponding to the cities in your list.

[muon2]

I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too.

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could flip to a 1-2 split, or remotely a 3-0 split.
CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 or 4-0.

[muon2]

Dupage only has 1 precinct in.

I see 220 precincts in in DuPage on the county website.

[muon2]

Delegate update:

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

[muon2]

Delegate update:

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

This is on a base of 34 Romney and 7 Santorum.

[muon2]

If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

[muon2]

If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How are you getting the results by CD?

I think Muon2 is looking at the raw votes for actual delegates, which none of the rest of us are. He knows the players.

Actually I rely on the Sun-Times website for statewide tabulation. I've found them to be among the most efficient. When I called 17 they were showing 80% in.