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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Big DaddyTX)
| | |-+  Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
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Question: In other words, will Santorum/Gingrich/Paul keep Romney from getting to 1144?
Absolutely!   -0 (0%)
More likely than not   -5 (12.8%)
Maybe, I can't say at this point   -6 (15.4%)
Probably won't happen   -16 (41%)
Ain't gonna happen   -12 (30.8%)
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Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?  (Read 316 times)
Fritz
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« on: March 21, 2012, 03:27:10 pm »
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Thought I'd check public opinion here.
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Senator Clarence
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2012, 03:28:07 pm »
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I don't think so- at some point momentum and inevitablity will catch on
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"I have not yet begun to fight"
Governor Scott
Scott
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2012, 03:31:04 pm »
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Option 3.
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Chareth Cutestory
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2012, 03:32:30 pm »
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I'd argue the final slide towards Romney inevitability has already begun. I don't think the anti-Romneys can survive April (though I'm almost positive they'll all stay in regardless). There's just way too much momentum to overcome after already being down by so much.
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Pirate lawyer
Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2012, 04:02:36 pm »
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Nope.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2012, 04:15:44 pm »
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Santorum has already blown 3 chances to change the dynamics of this race (MI, OH, IL). Even if he wins half the states going forward (LA, WI, PA, NC, IN, WV, NE, KY, AR, TX, SD, MT) Rommey still locks it up on June 5th.

Santorum's only chance now is an alignment of planets. He needs most (if not all) of the following to happen:
1. Holding Romney to less than 1/4 delegates in Santorum states (especially TX)
2. Winning on Romney territory (MD, DE, OR, NM)
3. Winning 1/3+ of the delegates in remaining Romney states (especially CA and NY) (with Paul and Newt picking up some too)
4. Getting AZ and FL delegates split proportionately
5. Getting Santorum and Paul Ninja delegates to steal assumed Romney delegates at caucus state conventions
6. Prevent most super delegates and other unbound from swinging to Romney

...and the chance of him pulling all that off is possible but certainly less than 10% at this point
« Last Edit: March 21, 2012, 04:23:58 pm by Etch-A-Sketch Voter »Logged

Pictor Ignotus
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2012, 04:22:38 pm »
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No- April 24 it will be obvious and June 5 it will be realized.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2012, 04:24:49 pm »

The only way I see it going all the way to the convention is if Ron Paul's ground game really does beat all expectations and there are enough Paultards "pledged" to Romney that they can actually make a difference.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2012, 05:33:32 pm »
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No - I expect to be over by May 1st.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2012, 07:12:15 pm »
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Option 3.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2012, 08:07:05 pm »
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Option 4.
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