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Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
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Question:
In other words, will Santorum/Gingrich/Paul keep Romney from getting to 1144?
Absolutely!
0 (0%)
More likely than not
5 (12.8%)
Maybe, I can't say at this point
6 (15.4%)
Probably won't happen
16 (41%)
Ain't gonna happen
12 (30.8%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 39
Author
Topic: Will the delegate battle go to the convention? (Read 316 times)
Fritz
JLD
YaBB God
Posts: 4848
Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.48
Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
on:
March 21, 2012, 03:27:10 pm »
Thought I'd check public opinion here.
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Senator Clarence
clarence
YaBB God
Posts: 4352
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #1 on:
March 21, 2012, 03:28:07 pm »
I don't think so- at some point momentum and inevitablity will catch on
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"I have not yet begun to fight"
Governor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
Posts: 11110
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.22
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #2 on:
March 21, 2012, 03:31:04 pm »
Option 3.
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Summary Of My Political Beliefs
Chareth Cutestory
fezzyfestoon
YaBB God
Posts: 8340
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #3 on:
March 21, 2012, 03:32:30 pm »
I'd argue the final slide towards Romney inevitability has already begun. I don't think the anti-Romneys can survive April (though I'm almost positive they'll all stay in regardless). There's just way too much momentum to overcome after already being down by so much.
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Pirate lawyer
Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel
Inks.LWC
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 31485
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #4 on:
March 21, 2012, 04:02:36 pm »
Nope.
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Likely Voter
YaBB God
Posts: 4016
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #5 on:
March 21, 2012, 04:15:44 pm »
Santorum has already blown 3 chances to change the dynamics of this race (MI, OH, IL). Even if he wins half the states going forward (LA, WI, PA, NC, IN, WV, NE, KY, AR, TX, SD, MT) Rommey still locks it up on June 5th.
Santorum's only chance now is an alignment of planets. He needs most (if not all) of the following to happen:
1. Holding Romney to less than 1/4 delegates in Santorum states (especially TX)
2. Winning on Romney territory (MD, DE, OR, NM)
3. Winning 1/3+ of the delegates in remaining Romney states (especially CA and NY) (with Paul and Newt picking up some too)
4. Getting AZ and FL delegates split proportionately
5. Getting Santorum and Paul Ninja delegates to steal assumed Romney delegates at caucus state conventions
6. Prevent most super delegates and other unbound from swinging to Romney
...and the chance of him pulling all that off is possible but certainly less than 10% at this point
«
Last Edit: March 21, 2012, 04:23:58 pm by Etch-A-Sketch Voter
»
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Pictor Ignotus
TCash101
YaBB God
Posts: 6452
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #6 on:
March 21, 2012, 04:22:38 pm »
No- April 24 it will be obvious and June 5 it will be realized.
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Renew our Democracy!
Bacon King
Moderator
YaBB God
Posts: 14242
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #7 on:
March 21, 2012, 04:24:49 pm »
The only way I see it going all the way to the convention is if Ron Paul's ground game really does beat all expectations and there are enough Paultards "pledged" to Romney that they can actually make a difference.
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J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 31872
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #8 on:
March 21, 2012, 05:33:32 pm »
No - I expect to be over by May 1st.
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J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
For Oklahoma
20RP12
YaBB God
Posts: 17475
Political Matrix
E: -4.45, S: -7.57
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #9 on:
March 21, 2012, 07:12:15 pm »
Option 3.
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All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
Posts: 36282
Re: Will the delegate battle go to the convention?
«
Reply #10 on:
March 21, 2012, 08:07:05 pm »
Option 4.
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