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| | |-+  mitt romney's path to victory?
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Author Topic: mitt romney's path to victory?  (Read 1235 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: March 20, 2012, 06:37:37 pm »
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discuss.
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Don't these busybody white people have anything better to do than spread their nonsense beliefs to a part of the world with far more pressing concerns?
afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2012, 06:42:02 pm »
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It involves overturning a 20 year Dem advantage in 2 key states. Given that Obama is creating an advantage in states the Dems never really had much of a chance in a few cylces back it's a distant possibility only.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2012, 06:42:16 pm »
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Mitt certainly would not win PA by that margin if he was to win.
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Nagas
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2012, 06:44:16 pm »
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Add MI and PA back to the Dems and you have Mitt's most likely victory map. 270-268. His ceiling is low.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2012, 06:44:28 pm »
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PA & MI would be very difficult, but not impossible. If Snyder and Corbett can pull off those decent wins in off years than Romney could be able to squeak by. And don't even say Santorum is better because he would appeal to the working class, GWB failed to win either state either time against liberal elites. The GOP needs someone who can appeal to upper class suburbanites.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2012, 06:45:50 pm »
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Mitt certainly would not win PA by that margin if he was to win.

that is my mistake.  this scenario should involve a narrow pa victory.
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change08
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2012, 06:50:50 pm »
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It involves overturning a 20 year Dem advantage in 2 key states.

Exactly. It's funny that nearly every path to 270 for the GOP involves states that the Republicans haven't won since 1988. How would anyone who hadn't voted to re-elect Bush Sr, hadn't voted for Dole, hadn't voted for Dubya and hadn't voted for McCain compel themself to vote for a Mitt Romney or a Rick Santorum? Really? That's the flaw in having Mitt Romney as a nominee.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2012, 06:52:00 pm »
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It involves overturning a 20 year Dem advantage in 2 key states.

Exactly. It's funny that nearly every path to 270 for the GOP involves states that the Republicans haven't won since 1988. How would anyone who hadn't voted to re-elect Bush Sr, hadn't voted for Dole, hadn't voted for Dubya and hadn't voted for McCain compel themself to vote for a Mitt Romney or a Rick Santorum? Really? That's the flaw in having Mitt Romney as a nominee.

Like Snyder is a man of the people or something. Come on.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2012, 07:48:02 pm »
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How much does anyone think Mitt's home state advantage is worth in MI?  MI has been pretty consistently more Dem at the national level than PA since the 1980s.

Another question is how much is the Mormon thing worth in NV and AZ?  It is certainly worth something, probably something akin to the black thing in 2008, but since Mormons already turn out at high rates, probably less.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2012, 08:04:25 pm »
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Another question is how much is the Mormon thing worth in NV and AZ?  It is certainly worth something, probably something akin to the black thing in 2008, but since Mormons already turn out at high rates, probably less.

I've heard that the major advantage Romney has with the Mormons is that they can be expected to volunteer en masse for his campaign - they're quite experienced in knocking on doors and evangelizing.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2012, 08:09:15 pm »
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Another question is how much is the Mormon thing worth in NV and AZ?  It is certainly worth something, probably something akin to the black thing in 2008, but since Mormons already turn out at high rates, probably less.

I've heard that the major advantage Romney has with the Mormons is that they can be expected to volunteer en masse for his campaign - they're quite experienced in knocking on doors and evangelizing.

Yes, but are they successful at conversion.  Tongue
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2012, 08:11:11 pm »
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The baseline for the Romney path is to start with McCain + IN, NC, FL, & OH. That gets him 253. On top of that his quickest path is VA and NH which gets him to 270 exactly. Other barely making it scenarios could include NV, IA, or CO. But MI and PA are likely only part of a Romney landslide
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wormyguy
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2012, 08:21:30 pm »
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Michigan probably needs 1 to 2 more cycles of Detroit losing population before it becomes genuinely competitive in Presidential elections.
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2012, 12:02:07 am »
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Shouldn't Romney try to break 300 EV with this map?
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2012, 12:26:28 am »
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Shouldn't Romney try to break 300 EV with this map?


Do you consider that Nebraska elector safe Obama?
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2012, 12:47:40 am »
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Shouldn't Romney try to break 300 EV with this map?


Do you consider that Nebraska elector safe Obama?
I forgot to change that contender to blue.
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HockeyDude
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2012, 12:57:31 am »
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Best bet for Mittens.  270 exactly.

Honestly... I really think it's his absolute best scenario.  All those states in red, I just don't see how any of them flip.  Romney has a huge problem just with the math and where Democratic strength is concentrated.   
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2012, 01:37:42 am »
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How much does anyone think Mitt's home state advantage is worth in MI?  MI has been pretty consistently more Dem at the national level than PA since the 1980s.

Another question is how much is the Mormon thing worth in NV and AZ?  It is certainly worth something, probably something akin to the black thing in 2008, but since Mormons already turn out at high rates, probably less.

MI was more Republican in the presidential elections 1984-1992. I would have expected Romney to have better chances at flipping Western states, but the polling seem to dispute this so far.
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Nagas
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« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2012, 08:16:04 am »
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Best bet for Mittens.  270 exactly.

Honestly... I really think it's his absolute best scenario.  All those states in red, I just don't see how any of them flip.  Romney has a huge problem just with the math and where Democratic strength is concentrated.   

I wouldn't call it his absolute best, but I think that map is the most likely scenario of a Romney victory. Best case, he might flip PA, 1 or 2 Western states and a Maine CD on top of that map, but the likelihood approaches zero by the day.

The electoral math favors the Democrats on the new map, incredibly.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2012, 09:11:35 am »
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Romney's path to victory is

-OH
-PA
-VA

Pick two.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2012, 09:13:42 am »
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Mitt Romney's path to victory?

Not being Mitt Romney.
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Harold Macmillan
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« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2012, 09:28:20 am »
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Not the best one, but I could see this:



A close, non-realignment election.  You can take out NV or VAat still comes out above 270.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2012, 10:16:48 am »
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Here is a tie:



Rubio is on the ticket and there are inroads with Hispanic votes, but not enough.
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J. J.

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GLPman
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2012, 11:01:47 am »
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Came up this scenario:


Obama - 262
Romney - 276
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argentarius
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2012, 11:19:28 am »
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Right now it seems Romney is way behind in the key states but I think if he can get the national popular vote to swing in his favour it will show in the swing states big time. That's a huge ask though. If he's ahead in the popular vote a lot of states are in play and the map will resemble Bush vs. Kerry 2004 and all of a sudden winning places like Wisconsin and Michigan won't seem absurd. However I don't see him leading the popular vote at all, let alone leading it long enough for it to show in the state polls.
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