Who will win the Louisiana primary?

[Keystone Phil]

Is Romney's win in Illinois enough to bring him across the finish line in LA or will his Deep South sorrow continue, resulting in a Santorum win?

[Colbert]

the good will win, but, alas, i'm afraid it's over.


(please, give me a brilliant mathematical proof showing that I am wrong )

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I can't think of a reason why events in Illinois would make Romney any more than a few points more palatable to people who vote in Republican primaries in Louisiana.

[Eraserhead]

Honestly, Gingrich should be an option here. I doubt he wins but I'd give him a 5%-10% chance.

I think Santorum will probably still win here but it's not a sure thing at all.

[RI]

Santorum will win. Gingrich will not be much of a factor.

[J. J.]

Is Romney's win in Illinois enough to bring him across the finish line in LA or will his Deep South sorrow continue, resulting in a Santorum win?

Romney's "Deep South Sorrow" resulted in his gaining 8 delegates the last time.

I'd still give the edge to Santorum, but it will be close.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Gingrich has a small chance, but after his failures in MS and AL, Santorum should be favored.

[Indy Texas]

Romney will carry Orleans Parish and the hoity-toity suburbs (Metairie, English Turn, etc) and possibly Baton Rouge.

Santorum will win pretty much everything else. Louisiana, with its ample supply of non-college-educated whites, evangelicals and old-school Catholics, fits him like a glove.

Newt will do his best in the northern part of the state, but at this point the most effect he'll have is to maybe let Romney win Shreveport with a 3_% plurality.

[Keystone Phil]

Guys, Newt was officially finished after AL and MS. He is not an option in LA.

[tmthforu94]

I'd say Romney needs a Top 2 finish. Romney has the momentum - it should be close like Mississippi, though between Romney and Santorum.

[bgwah]

1) Santorum
2) Romney
3) Gingrich

[J. J.]

Santorum will win pretty much everything else. Louisiana, with its ample supply of non-college-educated whites, evangelicals and old-school Catholics, fits him like a glove.

Actually, Romney has consistently carried the Catholic vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I can't think of a reason why events in Illinois would make Romney any more than a few points more palatable to people who vote in Republican primaries in Louisiana.

yeah, that idea is a lot less plausible than Gingrich winning here.

[Alcon]

Santorum will win pretty much everything else. Louisiana, with its ample supply of non-college-educated whites, evangelicals and old-school Catholics, fits him like a glove.

Actually, Romney has consistently carried the Catholic vote.

...slightly different Catholics down in LA...

[J. J.]

Santorum will win pretty much everything else. Louisiana, with its ample supply of non-college-educated whites, evangelicals and old-school Catholics, fits him like a glove.

Actually, Romney has consistently carried the Catholic vote.

...slightly different Catholics down in LA...

True, but very different demographics in LA than in MS and AL.

[Lincoln Republican]

Santorum wins Louisiana, a state that fits into his area of appeal.  

But this nomination race is over.

[Meeker]

Santorum will win.

Romney will win all three on 4/3 (Maryland, D.C. and Wisconsin).

Romney will also win everything on 4/24 except Pennsylvania.

Then Santorum will win West Virginia and North Carolina on 5/8 while Romney will take Indiana.

It's gotten quite predictable at this point.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Just like it was after Nevada, eh?

Keep saying that to yourself. Maybe someday Mittens will actually shake off Santorum.

[redcommander]

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Just like it was after Nevada, eh?

Keep saying that to yourself. Maybe someday Mittens will actually shake off Santorum.

Tell me how you reasonably expect Santorum to win a majority of the delegates?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Show me how you expect Mittens doing the same, when he finishes third in every Southern state, and loses in the midwest.

[redcommander]

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Show me how you expect Mittens doing the same, when he finishes third in every Southern state, and loses in the midwest.

Look at CNN's delegate calculator. Romney still would have clinched the nomination even if Santorum had won Illinois tonight. In fact now we likely won't have to wait until California or Utah votes for him to be the official nominee now, and instead only until late April or early May. Santorum would have to win West Virginia, California, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin assuming he wins every Southern and Plains state remaining. Even then, it would only be a hung convention. He's not winning California, and Wisconsin is likely going to start moving in Romney's direction now so the race is done. Plus even if Romney doesn't win in the South, he still picks up a sizable delegate share there from PR rules.

[Matthew]

 I'm expecting Santorum may win 12-14 delegates out of 20 of La delegates on the 24th...April he "most" likely win Wis, Pa, but those states aren't winner take all either. Mississippi, Ok like!  

Even when I give Santorum 60 delegates out of Pa,
Wins: Ny(50), Wis(30), In(30), Wv, nc(30), montana, New mexico, slight win in Oregon(14-15), Texas (100-120), Misr(40+), Minn(30)
 Near total Blow outs in ark, kentucky...I only manage to bring Santorum into the 900-970 delegate range.

Santorum would have to utterly slaughter Romney throughout the rest of the midwest, plains and south within the rest of those states based on the way the delegates break down. Slaughtering Romney like he did in Kansas each time with 2/3rds of the delegates within Pa followed by a win out of New york and delware as Romney is out spending you at least 10 to 1. Santorum would have to win Califorina!

To even have a chance at winning over the super delegates to win it! This is assuming that no large portion of the republican party wakes up tomarrow with a charged mind about Mitt romney! Even if only 5 percent of the anti-mitts cross over within the next month it's OVER. Some are already getting tired of the fight an not everyone HATES romney's guts. This is why LA could be a good amount closer after last night...May stink, but you march to war with the army you got. THIS IS a major reason why Texas and Califorina being so late within the primary season sucks so badly! They most likely will not play any part besides sealing the deal for the front runner.

[Bacon King]

Louisiana is proportional but it's entirely conceivable that Santorum wins all twenty delegates that are awarded on Saturday (and the rest aren't decided until the end of the caucus process, on June 2nd, so who knows what the final result there will be?); these 20 delegates are decided proportionally, but there's a 25% cutoff. In the last poll from LA, Gingrich had 21% and Romney had 24%, so it's within the realm of possibility for a Santorum sweep (though Romney will probably end up winning delegates from CD 2, and maybe 1 and 6 [assuming they aren't stolen by Paul's ninja's, that is]).

I'm expecting Santorum may win 12-14 delegates out of 20 of La delegates on the 24th...April he "most" likely win Wis, Pa, but those states aren't winner take all either. Mississippi, Ok like!   

Even when I give Santorum 60 delegates out of Pa,
Wins: Ny(50), Wis(30), In(30), Wv, nc(30), montana, New mexico, slight win in Oregon(14-15), Texas (100-120), Misr(40+), Minn(30)
 Near total Blow outs in ark, kentucky...I only manage to bring Santorum into the 900-970 delegate range.

Santorum would have to utterly slaughter Romney throughout the rest of the midwest, plains and south within the rest of those states based on the way the delegates break down. Slaughtering Romney like he did in Kansas each time with 2/3rds of the delegates within Pa followed by a win out of New york and delware as Romney is out spending you at least 10 to 1. Santorum would have to win Califorina!

To even have a chance at winning over the super delegates to win it! This is assuming that no large portion of the republican party wakes up tomarrow with a charged mind about Mitt romney! Even if only 5 percent of the anti-mitts cross over within the next month it's OVER. Some are already getting tired of the fight an not everyone HATES romney's guts. This is why LA could be a good amount closer after last night...May stink, but you march to war with the army you got. THIS IS a major reason why Texas and Califorina being so late within the primary season sucks so badly! They most likely will not play any part besides sealing the deal for the front runner.

I'm pretty sure Santorum isn't even playing for a pure delegate win; he's playing to keep Romney from a majority while being in a close second place on the first ballot, because that's his only chance now. Yeah, Romney will probably win, but remember that Santorum's people are banking on some perfectly executed caucus-fu in states like IA and WA to gain more delegates from Romney, and are also trying really hard to force AZ and FL to become proportional. I don't know how realistic their assumptions are but theoretically there's still opportunities for Santorum to gain on Romney by stuff like that in contests that have already occurred.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The pandering opportunist, and it will help him as much as MS & AL did.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Then show me the math. I don't see it.

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Agree with all three, but he doesn't need CA. He does need WI though.

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Isn't that the goal here?

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As does Santorum, for that matter.

As for Wisconsin, wishful thinking.