According to realclearpolitics' delegate count,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.htmlafter counting in Illinois:
Romney has 554 delegates, and needs 590 more delegates to get to the magic nomination number of 1,144. I added up the remaining contests, and there are 1197 delegates remaining to be allocated. 590/1187... 49.7%.
So Romney needs 49.7% of the remaining delegates to become the nominee.Of the delegates awarded so far, (1008) Romney has 554, and so 554/1008... 54.9%. If he keeps at that percentage, he'll win the nomination. But it's really close to the 49.7% he needs. But look at the map, and look at the grey blank spaces, and then let's look at the calendar.
Imagine a line on the Utah-Colorado border, extending to both Mexico and Canada. Now imagine another line from Cleveland to Washington D.C. Everything within these two lines, that remain, is NOT ROMNEY COUNTRY. In addition, outside these lines is the home state of Rick Santorum. Sure Romney won Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Illinois, but look at the county results. It was only because of the large urban areas which gave him the win. Some of the strongest Santorum counties border Indiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Arkansas.
So let's go through the calendar:
3/24:
LA Strong Santorum (or Gingrich lol)
4/3
DC Strong Romney
MD Strong Romney
WI Strong Santorum
4/21 The stupid 3rd event of MO's delegates, god I hate caucuses.
MO: Strong Santorum
4/24 Super Big Northeast Romney win but Santorum gets his home state.
CT Strong Romney
DE Lean Romney
NY Strong Romney
PA Strong Santorum
RI Strong Romney
5/8 Super Anti Romney Tuesday:
IN: Strong Santorum
NC: Strong Santorum or Gingrich
WV: Strong Santorum
5/15:
NE: Strong Santorum
OR: Strong Romney
5/22:
AR: Strong Santorum
KY: Strong Santorum
5/29: Romney's uh oh Primary:
TX: Strong Santorum or Gingrich
6/5: The Last Super Tuesday:
CA: Lean Romney (CA GOP is more conservative than you think)
MT: Toss-up
NJ: Lean Romney
NM: Toss-up
SD: Strong Santorum
6/26: The Mormon Lifeline:
UT: Toss-up....jk. Strong Romney.
Grouped out, they look like this:
Strong Romney: DC, MD, CT, NY, RI, OR, UT: 266 Delegates
Lean Romney: CA, DE, NJ: 239 Delegates
Toss-up: MT, NM: 49 Delegates.
Lean Santorum or Gingrich: 0
Strong Santorum or Gingrich: AR, KY, LA, NE, WI, MO, PA, IN, NC, WV, TX, SD: 643 Delegates.
Yes I know the categories might be off, and I know they're not winner take all.
But my point is, is that there is more 643/1197 (53.7%) delegates in NOT ROMNEY country than there are in Romney country.There's no way Santorum or Gingrich will win the majority of delegates left, let alone catch up.
But for Romney to win the majority of delegates, that's still very much a toss-up. Remember he's won 54.9% of the delegates so far, now he needs to win the remaining 49.7%, most of which are in states and counties that are not favorable to him. It's close.
