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« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2012, 11:43:47 pm »
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Considering how disproportionately Episcopalians and Congregationalists are clustered in New England I don't see how it's remotely possible they are a Republican-voting bloc today.

Hell just look at Connecticut where Obama won white Protestants by about 2:1. Yes, larger than the state number, (McCain actually won white Catholics, but this isn't too surprising when you consider there Catholics are probably "ethnic" whites living in areas with more racial tensions, and most Catholics in Connecticut live in the traditionally Republican areas.)

OK checking the exit polls it looks like I was a bit off, Obama "only" won white Protestants 55-42 in Connecticut, he won Protestants in general 2:1 (blacks no doubt accounting for the rest of that). But McCain also won white Catholics 56-40, a fairly wide margin and greater than his national numbers with white Catholics.
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« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2012, 11:45:34 pm »
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Fun fact: I sat down once and worked out that every single New England state has a higher proportion of Episcopalians than any non-New England state other than for some bizarre reason Wyoming, which has more than Massachusetts but not by much.
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« Reply #27 on: March 22, 2012, 01:30:05 am »
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A point that someone else has made on here prior that I think is worth noting is that the rhetoric Republicans use can often bring up some uncomfortable connotations, even if entirely unintentional. Think of Sarah Palin talking about "Real America" or whatever, and thus implying that there are people who are "less American" than others...

One also should just note even though it's kind of boring that Jews disproportionately live in urban or at least inner suburban areas.
but it's Orthodox, Russians, Iranian, Sefeardi (non Orthodox), Jews are the ones who are the most likely jews to live there and are the most Conservative.

here's the true reason (short answer is secular this is the longer answer)
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150186.0
(for some strange reason when I introduced this topic it was met with a different reaction)
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« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2012, 01:34:41 am »
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You seriously live in a bubble dude. Seriously, look at where Jews live in states like California, Florida, Illinois and Maryland. Where I live there's probably more Jews in my district and St. Paul's than the rest of the state combined despite those being only 1/4th of the state.

Oh and there is obviously no shortage of liberal Jews in NYC.
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« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2012, 01:38:26 am »
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It's a cultural thing. Just like why are most Congregationalists and Episcopalians Republican? The answer is that they historically stuck to the GOP back in the days when that party represented moderate-to-liberal New England upper crust WASPism.

Nowadays, however, that's changed, as those are among the denominations whose polities are becoming more associated with the political left.

The members of those churches, most likely, are far more right-wing than the clergy and doctrine espoused by both though, so it's hard to say how Democratic religious WASPs really are at this point.

That really isn't the case. I'm not positive about Congregationalism but the divisions of the Episcopal Church telegraph pretty closely at most levels of its structure, by nature of its polity. Right-wing parishes and dioceses aren't going to be choosing these people as their rectors and bishops. There's a definitive progressive, often left-leaning-Anglo-Catholic or 'emergent' depending on the parish majority, and a sizable conservative, often Evangelical-leaning minority, in the House of Deputies as well as the House of Bishops.

I've just noticed that that's the case for mainline Protestantism in general. Active members of PCUSA and ELCA congregations are right-leaning, even though the clergy of both voted strongly for Gore. The PCUSA, in particular, has a democratic structure and at the General Assembly, it was decided that gays can become pastors, that Arizona was to be boycotted because of their immigration policy etc.

Yet look at these figures:
Quote
   Almost half of members and elders identify themselves as Republicans, as compared to one quarter of pastors and 13 percent of other ministers.
    Two-thirds of other ministers and half of pastors are Democrats, as compared to 30 percent of members and elders.
    About 20 percent of Presbyterians in each group identify as Independents.

Note to BRTD: I'm speaking of how Democratic active Episcopalian and Congregationalist members are today. I think it would be difficult to pinpoint how Democratic they are because as a demographic, active church goers of mainline protestant congregations tend to be much older and slightly more conservative than younger members that casually affiliate with them (I'm partially speaking from my own experience, although data backs me up here). I doubt that they're a Republican constituency but I could see them being swingy group that's in the political middle.
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« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2012, 01:39:14 am »
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You seriously live in a bubble dude. Seriously, look at where Jews live in states like California, Florida, Illinois and Maryland. Where I live there's probably more Jews in my district and St. Paul's than the rest of the state combined despite those being only 1/4th of the state.

Oh and there is obviously no shortage of liberal Jews in NYC.
I didn't say there wasn't I said Jews in big cities and it's suburbs are more likely to vote Republican than a jew in a rural or semi rural area.
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« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2012, 01:40:54 am »
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I've noticed that in the PCUSA too, but if it's a phenomenon that's present in the ECUSA it's considerably less stark and I haven't noticed it in years of being a practicing, every-week Episcopalian. As I said, ECUSA demographics are among other things overwhelmingly Northeastern.
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« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2012, 01:52:34 am »
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I've noticed that in the PCUSA too, but if it's a phenomenon that's present in the ECUSA it's considerably less stark and I haven't noticed it in years of being a practicing, every-week Episcopalian. As I said, ECUSA demographics are among other things overwhelmingly Northeastern.

I found this short blurb on the ECUSA in the American Spectator:
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Among Episcopal and Evangelical Lutheran (ELCA) clergy, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 3:1. Yet Episcopal and ELCA members are divided almost down the middle.

Pew confirms my suspicions about the divide between casual and active mainline Protestants:


I'll try and dig up more information from Pew.
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« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2012, 02:00:38 am »
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That is within the general bailiwick of what I would guess, something like ~57-60 Obama for the whole church (which, it must be remembered, is one of the more liberal mainline Protestant ones). It's the clergy being that overwhelmingly Democratic that's surprising to me, considering how many roughly 60-40 votes (percentagewise, since there are 110 bishops) on contentious issues go down in the House of Bishops. (The episcopate might be more conservative than the priesthood. This is the case in England. It's often hard to notice what views a parish priest might or might not register.)

There are admittedly some residual Yankee Republicans among Episcopalians in the Northeast, I would venture to guess more so than with many other denominations in this area, but you can still hardly call Episcopalians as a group conservative or Republican-leaning, especially if we're being compared within mainline Protestantism. I would also take the American Spectator's statistics, unless they're specifically sourced, with a grain of salt.

I wasn't disputing rough parity among mainline Protestants in general whatsoever. I've been to some fairly conservative Episcopal parishes, though not nearly as many as conservative Presbyterian or Methodist ones. By all means do see what you can find on Pew. This is interesting to me.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 02:09:47 am by Nathan »Logged

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« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2012, 02:01:28 am »
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I've noticed that in the PCUSA too, but if it's a phenomenon that's present in the ECUSA it's considerably less stark and I haven't noticed it in years of being a practicing, every-week Episcopalian. As I said, ECUSA demographics are among other things overwhelmingly Northeastern.

Though let's be honest dude, you live in Amherst. If I based my estimates entirely on my experience in Minneapolis I'd conclude that a majority of evangelicals are Democrats and evangelical clergy are more likely than not to oppose anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives.

Since I suppose that lots of mainline churches especially in rural areas are mostly full of olds it wouldn't surprise me that they'd be more conservative/Republican, I'm sure plenty others also have a lot of upper middle class families who go more for societal benefits than actual beliefs and vote Republican on economics as well. But while this might be true for ELCA and PCUSA in some areas (though Obama obviously won ELCA members in Minnesota, and by a pretty wide margin at that), I can't see it being the case for Congregationalists and Episcopalians due to their clustering in New England.

Olds stubbornly refusing to leave their mainline churches despite them now being far more liberal than them and there being hordes of more conservative churches reminded me of kind of a funny story my grandmother told me shortly after I was baptized about her friend that was baptized about 5 years earlier. She had been a lifelong Lutheran for 60+ years and was an organist at her church, but got in some sort of dispute with the church over that so she quit it and joined the local Baptist church instead, and then got baptized. She joined the Baptist church out of lack of options, there's a total of four churches in that town, two ELCA, one Baptist and one Catholic (I didn't ask why she just didn't go to the other ELCA, though I'm going to assume it was probably another petty trivial reason.) So yeah that's what it'll take for an old to leave their church, not anything to do with politics or theology, lol.
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« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2012, 02:14:54 am »
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I've noticed that in the PCUSA too, but if it's a phenomenon that's present in the ECUSA it's considerably less stark and I haven't noticed it in years of being a practicing, every-week Episcopalian. As I said, ECUSA demographics are among other things overwhelmingly Northeastern.

Though let's be honest dude, you live in Amherst. If I based my estimates entirely on my experience in Minneapolis I'd conclude that a majority of evangelicals are Democrats and evangelical clergy are more likely than not to oppose anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives.

...True. Ah, Amherst, the cultural context within which I am a 'Christian conservative'.

Quote
Since I suppose that lots of mainline churches especially in rural areas are mostly full of olds it wouldn't surprise me that they'd be more conservative/Republican, I'm sure plenty others also have a lot of upper middle class families who go more for societal benefits than actual beliefs and vote Republican on economics as well. But while this might be true for ELCA and PCUSA in some areas (though Obama obviously won ELCA members in Minnesota, and by a pretty wide margin at that), I can't see it being the case for Congregationalists and Episcopalians due to their clustering in New England.

Yeah. We should also remember that ECUSA is one of the smaller 'classical' mainline churches, much smaller than UMC and ELCA and smaller than PCUSA. General statistics for mainline Protestants have much more UMC, ELCA, and PCUSA in their samples than ECUSA or UCC.

Quote
Olds stubbornly refusing to leave their mainline churches despite them now being far more liberal than them and there being hordes of more conservative churches reminded me of kind of a funny story my grandmother told me shortly after I was baptized about her friend that was baptized about 5 years earlier. She had been a lifelong Lutheran for 60+ years and was an organist at her church, but got in some sort of dispute with the church over that so she quit it and joined the local Baptist church instead, and then got baptized. She joined the Baptist church out of lack of options, there's a total of four churches in that town, two ELCA, one Baptist and one Catholic (I didn't ask why she just didn't go to the other ELCA, though I'm going to assume it was probably another petty trivial reason.) So yeah that's what it'll take for an old to leave their church, not anything to do with politics or theology, lol.

I am given to understand that Howard Dean went from the ECUSA to the UCC over a dispute involving diocesan use of a bike path, so yeah, not surprising in the slightest.
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« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2012, 02:16:04 am »
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You seriously live in a bubble dude. Seriously, look at where Jews live in states like California, Florida, Illinois and Maryland. Where I live there's probably more Jews in my district and St. Paul's than the rest of the state combined despite those being only 1/4th of the state.

Oh and there is obviously no shortage of liberal Jews in NYC.
I didn't say there wasn't I said Jews in big cities and it's suburbs are more likely to vote Republican than a jew in a rural or semi rural area.

Where are the heavily Jewish rural areas? The few Jews who did live in rural areas probably moved there and came from a more urban and liberal background and probably brought their voting habits with them. I have a feeling though that Jews who lives in exurbs are significantly more Republican than Jews in general since they would move to the exurbs for the same reasons non-Jewish whites do (caring more about owning a big house than having a sane commute to work or good culture and amenities around, and fear of minorities.)
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« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2012, 02:21:09 am »
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You seriously live in a bubble dude. Seriously, look at where Jews live in states like California, Florida, Illinois and Maryland. Where I live there's probably more Jews in my district and St. Paul's than the rest of the state combined despite those being only 1/4th of the state.

Oh and there is obviously no shortage of liberal Jews in NYC.
I didn't say there wasn't I said Jews in big cities and it's suburbs are more likely to vote Republican than a jew in a rural or semi rural area.

Where are the heavily Jewish rural areas? The few Jews who did live in rural areas probably moved there and came from a more urban and liberal background and probably brought their voting habits with them. I have a feeling though that Jews who lives in exurbs are significantly more Republican than Jews in general since they would move to the exurbs for the same reasons non-Jewish whites do (caring more about owning a big house than having a sane commute to work or good culture and amenities around, and fear of minorities.)
prove that.  The fact is that Orthodox Jews vote overwhelmingly Republican and are more likely to live in the big cities then their liberal Jewish counterparts increasing drastically their numbers.  Ditto with Russian Jews and other sub Jewish demographics that vote republican.
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« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2012, 02:21:51 am »
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You seriously live in a bubble dude. Seriously, look at where Jews live in states like California, Florida, Illinois and Maryland. Where I live there's probably more Jews in my district and St. Paul's than the rest of the state combined despite those being only 1/4th of the state.

Oh and there is obviously no shortage of liberal Jews in NYC.
I didn't say there wasn't I said Jews in big cities and it's suburbs are more likely to vote Republican than a jew in a rural or semi rural area.

Where are the heavily Jewish rural areas? The few Jews who did live in rural areas probably moved there and came from a more urban and liberal background and probably brought their voting habits with them. I have a feeling though that Jews who lives in exurbs are significantly more Republican than Jews in general since they would move to the exurbs for the same reasons non-Jewish whites do (caring more about owning a big house than having a sane commute to work or good culture and amenities around, and fear of minorities.)

California actually tracks "Jewish" as an ethnicity for voter registration reasons, and your intuitions are correct.  Granted, California hardly has tons of hyper-ethnic Jews, but Jews in heavily Republican areas tend to lean Republican -- less so, but the heavily Dem tilt of Jews would be significant reduced were their distributions reflective of the urban/suburban/exurban/rural make-up of the U.S. as a whole.

I'm not sure whether the orthodox Jews really compensate for this nationwide effect.  I'm also not sure how the hell to characterize the places they live on the urban/suburban scale...
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« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2012, 02:23:25 am »
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Something that came to me a few days ago while walking downtown was that fear of progressive taxation or "class warfare" is not necessarily the primary reason upper middle class Republicans vote that way because someone who makes $250k a year isn't going to see their lifestyle significantly threatened by having their taxes go up 3% or so (not saying it's not a factor for some people obviously.) But they might vote Republican if they feel their job and industry is threatened by Democratic policies. Industries like entertainment, fashion, tech and even banking don't feel threatened by Democrats. Industries like oil, health insurance, anything related to the military-industrial complex and industry/manufacturing in general with high unionization (since we're thinking of the management voting here) will feel threatened and thus tend to be more Republican.

Wealthy Jews are far more represented in the former categories than the latter.
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« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2012, 02:26:09 am »
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What percentage of Jews are Orthodox? I was under the impression that they form a very small portion.
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« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2012, 02:27:59 am »
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I'm not sure whether the orthodox Jews really compensate for this nationwide effect.  I'm also not sure how the hell to characterize the places they live on the urban/suburban scale...

Eh well his point is valid if you look at the parts of NYC he's talking about, but this is similar to someone in a Cuban part of Miami arguing that urban Hispanics aren't likely to be Democrats. He doesn't seem to realize that Jews outside of NYC exist (and by this we're even including the rest of New York State, since places like Monsey and Kiryas Joel are obviously not urban.)

And of course this all ignores the fact that the Orthodox are a very very small percentage of the national Jewish population if you disregard his No True Scotsman argument.
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« Reply #42 on: March 22, 2012, 03:05:23 am »
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Because they're educated and live in urban areas where the effectiveness and necessity of government is easier to see.
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« Reply #43 on: March 22, 2012, 03:29:55 am »
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I'm not sure whether the orthodox Jews really compensate for this nationwide effect.  I'm also not sure how the hell to characterize the places they live on the urban/suburban scale...

Eh well his point is valid if you look at the parts of NYC he's talking about, but this is similar to someone in a Cuban part of Miami arguing that urban Hispanics aren't likely to be Democrats. He doesn't seem to realize that Jews outside of NYC exist (and by this we're even including the rest of New York State, since places like Monsey and Kiryas Joel are obviously not urban.)

And of course this all ignores the fact that the Orthodox are a very very small percentage of the national Jewish population if you disregard his No True Scotsman argument.
it's not just NY (maybe the "park" makes it rural)
Baltimore McCain won Park Heights.
Chicago McCain won West Rogers Park
you can also spot Orthodox presence on a Obama McCain map in Greater Miami, Greater Los Angeles, and Greater Cleveland.

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« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2012, 04:00:02 am »
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What percentage of Jews are Orthodox? I was under the impression that they form a very small portion.

Apparently, about 13 percent of Jews in the United States are Orthodox, including 23 percent of Jewish children.

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While Orthodox Jews comprise 10% of Jewish adults, that proportion more than doubles, to 23%, among Jewish children, less than the proportion of Jewish children who are Reform (30%) but nearly the same proportion of Jewish children who are Conservative (24%).
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« Reply #45 on: March 22, 2012, 04:16:23 am »
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What percentage of Jews are Orthodox? I was under the impression that they form a very small portion.

Apparently, about 13 percent of Jews in the United States are Orthodox, including 23 percent of Jewish children.

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While Orthodox Jews comprise 10% of Jewish adults, that proportion more than doubles, to 23%, among Jewish children, less than the proportion of Jewish children who are Reform (30%) but nearly the same proportion of Jewish children who are Conservative (24%).
that is 10 years old I'm sure if accurate it changed at least 1 % point and children wise a quite a few.  (Orthodox children are clearly over 50% of the NY metro now)
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« Reply #46 on: March 22, 2012, 08:11:25 am »
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I'm not sure whether the orthodox Jews really compensate for this nationwide effect.  I'm also not sure how the hell to characterize the places they live on the urban/suburban scale...

Eh well his point is valid if you look at the parts of NYC he's talking about, but this is similar to someone in a Cuban part of Miami arguing that urban Hispanics aren't likely to be Democrats. He doesn't seem to realize that Jews outside of NYC exist (and by this we're even including the rest of New York State, since places like Monsey and Kiryas Joel are obviously not urban.)

And of course this all ignores the fact that the Orthodox are a very very small percentage of the national Jewish population if you disregard his No True Scotsman argument.
it's not just NY (maybe the "park" makes it rural)
Baltimore McCain won Park Heights.
Chicago McCain won West Rogers Park
you can also spot Orthodox presence on a Obama McCain map in Greater Miami, Greater Los Angeles, and Greater Cleveland.

Where in Greater Los Angeles?
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« Reply #47 on: March 22, 2012, 08:32:43 am »
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The single most salient reason these days is that Jews are more secular than the general population.

This pretty much.

Which explains why we haven't seen the shift in voting habits that we have in other traditionally Democratic immigrant groups (namely Catholics).
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« Reply #48 on: March 22, 2012, 08:48:04 am »
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The single most salient reason these days is that Jews are more secular than the general population.

This pretty much.

Which explains why we haven't seen the shift in voting habits that we have in other traditionally Democratic immigrant groups (namely Catholics).

While taken at face value it is correct, I don't really like that answer because it ignores the  historical background.  It would be similar to saying that Cuban Americans are more likely to vote for Republicans because they live in Florida.  Many Jewish immigrants had a strong influence in socialist and labor movement stretching back to the continent.  Their roots as a persecuted minority and their location in the urban cores all had and continue to have a strong influence on their mores and voting patterns.   The strength of the Nativist element, KKK and Bircher movements during periods of the GOP's history did not help matters either.  Voting patterns for some groups are not as changeable as many think. Therefore, the current GOP would be wise to pump the brakes on a lot of their anti-immigration rhetoric.
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« Reply #49 on: March 22, 2012, 08:54:21 am »
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prove that.  The fact is that Orthodox Jews vote overwhelmingly Republican and are more likely to live in the big cities then their liberal Jewish counterparts increasing drastically their numbers.  Ditto with Russian Jews and other sub Jewish demographics that vote republican.

Russian Jews are settling heavily in suburbs, too, particularly in NJ. They're just following the traditional immigrant pattern.
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