PPP Poll out and up somewhere now or soon - per tweet Mittens up 15% in Illinois

[Torie]

Rick per this poll would be held maybe to 1-2 CD's, not 5.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If they are right, this will be a massacre.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

At least put the state in the thread title!

[Torie]

At least put the state in the thread title!

All I have been talking about - obsessively, is the Land of Lincoln for the past two days. What the F else could it be?

Thanks. Fixed.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Cautiously optimistic, apparently PPP don't poll IL that often, or at least that's what I took from them saying they weren't getting paid to do it. Either way, Romney is pretty much guaranteed victory, which means that more important than any delagates he gets the headline 'Romney wins Illinois'.

[J. J.]

If it holds, a smashing victory for Mittens.

I'm now wondering about a hat trick with LA; that could shut things down.

[GLPman]

Maybe Mittens can finally seal the deal.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

If these numbers come through, Mitt is headed to a big win on Tuesday.

After this, I simply do not see how Santorum or his campaign can say with a straight face they are going to win the nomination.

               

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1720120318108

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I guess this will be Rick's Florida. This thing is over.

[greenforest32]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IL_318.pdf

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Chicago?

Favorable........................................................ 27%
Unfavorable.................................................... 65%
Not sure ..........................................................  8%

Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a
Muslim, or are you not sure?

Christian .......................................................... 24%
Muslim............................................................ 39%
Not sure ......................................................... 37%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States, or not?

He was............................................................ 36%
He was not......................................................36%
Not sure ......................................................... 28% 

Do you believe in evolution, or not?

Believe in evolution ......................................... 41%
Do not ............................................................. 43%
Not sure ........................................................16%

Do you think that interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 75%
Illegal .............................................................. 16%
Not sure ..........................................................  9%

[Meeker]

Santorum will do a little better than this but yeah, this is over. But we've known that since Michigan voted.

[Lіef]

Santorum never had a chance here. 2/3 or so of the votes are going to come from Cook County and its suburbs. This is a solid Romney state, always has been.

[Torie]

Santorum never had a chance here. 2/3 or so of the votes are going to come from Cook County and its suburbs This is a solid Romney state, always has been.

53% of Pub voters actually, say the gurus. With your number, the lead would be 20%.

[Bacon King]

I love PPP for releasing their full polls to the public.

Big things to take from this:

• Of the 9% who voted early, Romney has an 18-point lead over Santorum; this will provide him a bit of a cushion where he'll still win the state even if there's somehow a massive swing and election day voters. Santorum would need to be like 3 points above Romney on election night to actually win.
• Romney landslides among urban and suburban voters, obviously, but even has a two point lead among rural voters
• Santorum's getting slaughtered among the nonevangelicals which make up 64% of the electorate; they only have him 10 points ahead of Paul and Gingrich

Fun things to take from this:

• Old people really hate Chicago
  
• notable correlation between supporting the Tea Party and the White Sox
• Also, Evangelicals supporting the Cardinals (living in the south of the state, rooting for the closest team, I guess?)

[big bad fab]

I guess this will be Rick's Florida. This thing is over.

It was over from the beginning (from 2008) in a way.
But Rick will keep on fighting.
Remember when Huck left the race ? When it was absolutely sure than, numerically, The Mac would gain more than 50% of delegates. Whereas McCain won on Super Tuesday and Huck wouldn't be able to outnumber him, he stayed in the race for many, many weeks.

As Louisiana is on Saturday, Rick will have some favourable media buzz just 4 days later. Why not stay in the race ?