The fact that states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa are experiencing the brunt of our recent economic downturn, I think that Romney will play well to white, working class (traditionally unionized) voters who are not fans of Obama's economic policies.
You're right that these people have been hit hardest by the recession and dislike Obama (often intensely), but Romney is pretty much the worst possible candidate to appeal to them. He won't be able to connect with them unless he can stop making rich guy gaffes.
However, Romney can do this while using his moderate record to social issues to appeal to young professionals and suburbanites.
That conflicts with what you just said about working class white voters, who are generally socially conservative and non-professional, and who've historically voted Democratic on economic issues. Romney's biggest problems so far have really come from trying to talk out of both sides of his mouth. You do realize that when he does that, he's writing Obama's attack ads for him, right?
If Romney plays his cards right, he will win the election in a walk--with big wins in the South, a massive swing towards Republicans in the Industrial Midwest and to a lesser extent the Northeast while his Mormon religion helps him out west in states like Colorado and Nevada.
Colorado is less that 3% Mormon. Nevada is about 11%, but most of them are Republicans anyway. Latinos are a much bigger group in both states, and Romney looks likely to lose them by an even bigger margin than McCain did.
For someone with such a (relatively) high approval rating, President Obama is one of the weakest incumbents in over 30 years. His record on the economy and energy are in conflict, to say the very least, and he has failed to seize the opportunity to redefine American foreign policy goals in a post-Iraq world.
Then why are bin Laden and Gaddafi dead?
Between Romney's moderate record, his chameleon abilities, his deep warchest and the undoubted support he will receive from Wall Street and other Super PACs 2012 is Romney's to lose.
In American politics, "chameleon abilities" are a weakness, not a strength. Just ask John Kerry.
