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Author Topic: Coup d'etat in Mali  (Read 5063 times)
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« on: March 22, 2012, 01:51:51 am »
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Looks like an old school coup has happened in Mali. The "Comité National pour le Redressement de la Démocratie et la Restauration de l'Etat" has taken over the TV station, attacked the presidential palace, and occupied Bamako. A group of men in uniforms have spoken on TV, accusing the government of not providing enough help to fight the Tuareg revolt. The butterflies from the Tunisian fruit vendor's suicide are spreading far and wide.
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2012, 04:38:15 am »
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Gosh...

Is the current "president" a dictator himself anyways ?
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2012, 07:24:47 am »
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Gosh...

Is the current "president" a dictator himself anyways ?

Mali has been blessed by pretty decent, democratic but imperfect and somewhat corrupt/useless leaders who are excellent by West African standards since 1992. It has a 'free' rating from Freedom House (2 political liberties, 3 civil liberties) and a 'flawed democracy' (6.36) index from the Economist (which is a ranking superior to that of Ghana, Ukraine, the Philippines or Venezuela).

I doubt anything good can come out of this.
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2012, 09:27:03 am »
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Gosh...

Is the current "president" a dictator himself anyways ?

Mali has been blessed by pretty decent, democratic but imperfect and somewhat corrupt/useless leaders who are excellent by West African standards since 1992. It has a 'free' rating from Freedom House (2 political liberties, 3 civil liberties) and a 'flawed democracy' (6.36) index from the Economist (which is a ranking superior to that of Ghana, Ukraine, the Philippines or Venezuela).

I doubt anything good can come out of this.

Yeah, from what I've heard Mali is supposed to be one of the freest and most democratic nations in Africa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amadou_Toumani_Tour%C3%A9
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2012, 12:13:55 pm »
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Oh, well, then that's worrisome indeed.
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2012, 08:35:54 pm »
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What happened to the President? Is he locked up the the guy from Niger or his he resisting.
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2012, 08:46:25 pm »
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A consequence of the fall of Qaddafi in Libya. Tuareg's who where serving as mercenaries in Libya returning to resume their rebellion against the Blacks and the military not liking the Presidents "soft" approach to fighting them. So expect lots of massacres on Tuareg's, torture, mass rape, killing of livestock etc. now and Tuareg retaliation on "black" villages. Tragic.
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2012, 10:51:50 pm »
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Yeah Samake still has a better chance of becoming the first Mormon head of state then Mitt Romney.
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2012, 12:20:29 pm »
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A consequence of the fall of Qaddafi in Libya. Tuareg's who where serving as mercenaries in Libya returning to resume their rebellion against the Blacks and the military not liking the Presidents "soft" approach to fighting them. So expect lots of massacres on Tuareg's, torture, mass rape, killing of livestock etc. now and Tuareg retaliation on "black" villages. Tragic.
Indeed. I have a feeling that a lot of ex Qadaffi era military leaders will come down from Libya and arm the Tuaregs as well.
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2012, 03:52:25 pm »
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Yeah Samake still has a better chance of becoming the first Mormon head of state then Mitt Romney.

Okay, I had to look this up, and per Wikipedia:

Samake and his family are the only members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) in Mali.

Haha, oh wow.
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2012, 06:32:07 pm »
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There are reports that Malian army forces are fleeing en masse in the face of renewed Tuareg advances, taking advantage of the political chaos in the country. Also, the elite parachute regiment loyal to the legit President and believed to be hiding him are rumored to be moving into a position for a counter-coup.
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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2012, 06:43:58 pm »
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Yeah Samake still has a better chance of becoming the first Mormon head of state then Mitt Romney.

Okay, I had to look this up, and per Wikipedia:

Samake and his family are the only members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) in Mali.

Haha, oh wow.

This. Is. Priceless.
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2012, 01:01:15 pm »
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Heh, as a Mormon, Yeah Samake's possible victory in Mali (once this coup business is sorted out) makes me laugh every single time. Nope, the white, uncharismatic, businessman, conservative Mormon in the United States won't be leader of a country, but the black, raised in poverty, Peace Corp, innovative Mormon in Mali will be leader of a country. It's just so unexpected.

I'm curious about how the possible first Mormon president of a country will combat the Tuaregs; will he use the same kind of political/rhetorical/military tactics as his predecessor, or will he do something completely out of the box and interesting?

Regarding the actual rebellion; it looks like the Tuaregs might be more justified in leaving Mali than the justification of the Malians for keeping them in the nation. Northern Mali seems to be underdeveloped and neglected, so if the Tuaregs want to split off and create their own nation, I think that's okay.
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2012, 09:39:17 am »
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Doesn't really look like our new Military Junta actually has anything under control. Quite junior officers, too, I understand.
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2012, 10:53:57 am »
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Heh, as a Mormon, Yeah Samake's possible victory in Mali (once this coup business is sorted out) makes me laugh every single time. Nope, the white, uncharismatic, businessman, conservative Mormon in the United States won't be leader of a country, but the black, raised in poverty, Peace Corp, innovative Mormon in Mali will be leader of a country. It's just so unexpected.

I'm curious about how the possible first Mormon president of a country will combat the Tuaregs; will he use the same kind of political/rhetorical/military tactics as his predecessor, or will he do something completely out of the box and interesting?

Regarding the actual rebellion; it looks like the Tuaregs might be more justified in leaving Mali than the justification of the Malians for keeping them in the nation. Northern Mali seems to be underdeveloped and neglected, so if the Tuaregs want to split off and create their own nation, I think that's okay.

I think this map of population density explain why the north is less developed.

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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2012, 06:17:39 am »
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Al Jazeera is reporting that all major cities in the north have now fallen to the rebels, with Timbuktu having been captured today.
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2012, 06:29:41 am »
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Nice video.
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« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2012, 10:44:27 am »
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Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2012, 02:34:31 pm »
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Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.

Yes and no.  The troops were tired of being treated like expendables used to keep the Azawad part of Mali.  I hope folks haven't yet gone out ad bought new maps with South Sudan on it.  While the coup leaders have said they are restoring the constitution, they (or a restored civilian government) may decide to give the the rebels their independence rather than fight a war to retake what has been lost.
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2012, 03:37:23 pm »
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Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.

Yes and no.  The troops were tired of being treated like expendables used to keep the Azawad part of Mali.  I hope folks haven't yet gone out ad bought new maps with South Sudan on it.  While the coup leaders have said they are restoring the constitution, they (or a restored civilian government) may decide to give the the rebels their independence rather than fight a war to retake what has been lost.

I guess that would be the best solution, but considering the tendency of rulers to systematically take the wrong decision when it comes to a region asking for independence, I wouldn't bet on that.
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« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2012, 03:53:43 pm »
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Also, another new country so soon after South Sudan? That would confirm all the fears of African heads of states and the West about redrawing African boundaries being a pandora's box best left unopened.
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« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2012, 03:55:48 pm »
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Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.

Yes and no.  The troops were tired of being treated like expendables used to keep the Azawad part of Mali.  I hope folks haven't yet gone out ad bought new maps with South Sudan on it.  While the coup leaders have said they are restoring the constitution, they (or a restored civilian government) may decide to give the the rebels their independence rather than fight a war to retake what has been lost.
Timbuktu and Gao aren't likely to be close to majority Tuareg these days. So unless the rebel movement is more pan regional rather than ethnic. I don't see how independence is going to work out well.
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« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2012, 04:33:55 pm »
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Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.

Yes and no.  The troops were tired of being treated like expendables used to keep the Azawad part of Mali.  I hope folks haven't yet gone out ad bought new maps with South Sudan on it.  While the coup leaders have said they are restoring the constitution, they (or a restored civilian government) may decide to give the the rebels their independence rather than fight a war to retake what has been lost.
Timbuktu and Gao aren't likely to be close to majority Tuareg these days. So unless the rebel movement is more pan regional rather than ethnic. I don't see how independence is going to work out well.

According to this long but well-researched and excellent article, it seems the Azawadis have thought of that, and the younger generation are trying to rebrand the independence movement as a pan-ethnic regional movement. The article mentions Arabs and Black Africans joining the rebel army as well.

So I think they're looking at ethnic problems and trying to beat them before independence.
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« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2012, 05:40:04 pm »
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Quote
Through December and early January, the tone of the exchanges on various Tuareg chat forums was expectant, frustrated, even desultory at times.

LOL. How many Tuaregs have internet access, really (and of those that do, what is their geographical distribution like)? Serious question btw.
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« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2012, 05:45:09 pm »
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Quote
Through December and early January, the tone of the exchanges on various Tuareg chat forums was expectant, frustrated, even desultory at times.

LOL. How many Tuaregs have internet access, really (and of those that do, what is their geographical distribution like)? Serious question btw.

How representative would they be of Tuaregs in general is what I would like to know. Then again, I think more people are on the internet than one would expect.
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