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Author Topic: Coup d'etat in Mali  (Read 9500 times)
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« Reply #50 on: April 06, 2012, 12:55:54 am »
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The rebels have declared independence as a sovereign state:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17635437
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« Reply #51 on: April 06, 2012, 04:47:21 am »
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A short dictator (wannabe)! Long live ancient stereotypes! (Yeah, the small guy with the beret is the junta chief Amadou Sanogo.)
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« Reply #52 on: April 06, 2012, 11:38:54 am »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?
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« Reply #53 on: April 06, 2012, 11:50:28 am »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?

It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
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« Reply #54 on: April 06, 2012, 01:50:36 pm »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?
It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
Thats the most likely IMO.
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« Reply #55 on: April 06, 2012, 03:18:35 pm »
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Why am I always confusing Mali with Malawi? :/
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« Reply #56 on: April 06, 2012, 03:18:53 pm »
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Maybe we need another thread, keeping this one to describe the fate of the Sanogo regime and another one to discuss the putative state of Azawad?

...At the very least the Mali/Azawad divorce would create decent-looking countries on the map.
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« Reply #57 on: April 06, 2012, 05:41:49 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
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« Reply #58 on: April 06, 2012, 05:52:16 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
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« Reply #59 on: April 06, 2012, 08:10:21 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuaregs qualify as FF.
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« Reply #60 on: April 06, 2012, 09:03:11 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuaregs qualify as FF.

Does knowing that the South Sudanese Liberation Army used child soldiers just like Kony's group dampen your opinion of them at all?
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« Reply #61 on: April 06, 2012, 09:57:59 pm »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?

It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276
Looks to be the case assuming he doesn't renege on the deal.
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« Reply #62 on: April 07, 2012, 04:16:39 am »
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Touareg fighting against Mali proper adopting Islamism when their opponents have always been the more orthodox Muslims is about the best proof there could be of the following premise:
That groups or people with a grievance will adopt some ideology, and usually one that happens to be en vogue at the moment (and it helps if there's funds or allies available for people with that ideology), and trying to explain events with the ideology rather than the other way round is a fool's errand. As viz. South East Asian Communism in the 50s etc pp.

EDIT: Though the Government of Mali has never been Islamist, of course. I guess for a perfect example, you'd want that component thrown in as well. Grin
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 04:21:16 am by Catmuslim »Logged

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« Reply #63 on: April 07, 2012, 07:21:26 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuareg's qualify as FF.

Does knowing that the South Sudanese Liberation Army used child soldiers just like Kony's group dampen your opinion of them at all?
Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

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« Reply #64 on: April 07, 2012, 08:16:02 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?

Because the South Sudanese are Christian. The media also conveniently forgot to mention that South Sudan is an authoritarian single-party state while they got mass erections out of South Sudan's independence.
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« Reply #65 on: April 07, 2012, 11:05:13 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?

Because the South Sudanese are Christian. The media also conveniently forgot to mention that South Sudan is an authoritarian single-party state while they got mass erections out of South Sudan's independence.
Still not as bad as the genocidal military regime of Omar Al Bashir in Khartoum.
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« Reply #66 on: April 07, 2012, 02:00:04 pm »
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Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

This is a very dangerous black and white view of the world. The Taliban also fought against oppression of their people and "for freedom". The CIA is now sponsoring perhaps dozens of armed groups in Iran, many of which make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. And besides, South Africa was only a success because Mandela broke with the ANC's violent past and preached reconciliation. We can easily imagine an alternate ending where the ANC becomes like ZANU-PF where a Freedom Fighter gradually becomes an oppressive dictator.
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« Reply #67 on: April 07, 2012, 04:02:11 pm »
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Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

This is a very dangerous black and white view of the world. The Taliban also fought against oppression of their people and "for freedom". The CIA is now sponsoring perhaps dozens of armed groups in Iran, many of which make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. And besides, South Africa was only a success because Mandela broke with the ANC's violent past and preached reconciliation. We can easily imagine an alternate ending where the ANC becomes like ZANU-PF where a Freedom Fighter gradually becomes an oppressive dictator.
Yes. ANC could have been another dictatorial one-party (and there is still a small risk they could go that way). But you cant deny that their cause was just - making them FF.
The Taliban didn't fight for freedom. They fought to uphold gender apartheid and religious intolerance. I could never view that as "freedom", even if they believed that themselves.
The people of South Sudan has been oppressed in such an extreme way, that some sort of independence is the only way forward and the Tuaregs have a very good claim to independence from the alien culture in the South.
Both worthy causes.

I don't believe that any group claiming to fight for freedom or against oppression is FFs. An example:

ETA 2000: Clearly not FF since the Basques were not oppressed by the modern Spanish state, which is a democracy and has given them autonomy which protects their language and culture. They could (de facto) obtain independence by getting a majority for it in their parliament and holding a referendum. And a majority of the Basques had accepted autonomy in a referendum.

ETA 1970: Fighting the fascists. Clearly FF - even if they used terror.

So even though ETA had the same self perception, goals, methods and ideology in 1970 and 2000. They changed from FFs to terrorists IMO. But as I said FF is a highly subjective term. "One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter".
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« Reply #68 on: April 07, 2012, 05:38:00 pm »
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On ETA subject, didn't they abandonned terror and armed struggle last year?
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« Reply #69 on: April 07, 2012, 08:15:11 pm »
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Why does everyone have to be "clearly FF" or "clearly not FF"?
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« Reply #70 on: April 08, 2012, 02:22:19 am »
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Yes. ANC could have been another dictatorial one-party (and there is still a small risk they could go that way). But you cant deny that their cause was just - making them FF.
The Taliban didn't fight for freedom. They fought to uphold gender apartheid and religious intolerance. I could never view that as "freedom", even if they believed that themselves.
The people of South Sudan has been oppressed in such an extreme way, that some sort of independence is the only way forward and the Tuaregs have a very good claim to independence from the alien culture in the South.
Both worthy causes.
According to that definition, a group can only be called "Freedom Fighters" in retrospect. The American Revolutionaries rebelled against a government which was generally governed by law and was (for its time) very democratic, and committed horrors against loyalists. Someone in 1975 would have seen the ANC and ZANU-PF as equally deserving to be called Freedom Fighters. When the People's Liberation Army marched through China in the late 1940s, they were almost universally welcomed by the peasants as liberators from oppressive and corrupt landlords, and in fact Mao depended hugely on peasants volunteering in droves. And let's not forget a whole slew of right-wing Republicans are hailing MEK as "Freedom Fighters" when they make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. "Freedom Fighters" is 95% propaganda.

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I don't believe that any group claiming to fight for freedom or against oppression is FFs. An example:

ETA 2000: Clearly not FF since the Basques were not oppressed by the modern Spanish state, which is a democracy and has given them autonomy which protects their language and culture. They could (de facto) obtain independence by getting a majority for it in their parliament and holding a referendum. And a majority of the Basques had accepted autonomy in a referendum.

ETA 1970: Fighting the fascists. Clearly FF - even if they used terror.

So even though ETA had the same self perception, goals, methods and ideology in 1970 and 2000. They changed from FFs to terrorists IMO. But as I said FF is a highly subjective term. "One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter".
But doesn't this make descriptions change in retrospect? It's very dangerous to reduce the world to simple black and white.
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« Reply #71 on: April 08, 2012, 02:58:57 am »
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"Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
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« Reply #72 on: April 08, 2012, 06:37:36 am »
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I cannot find regional results for the 2007 presidential elections anywhere, and for the parliamentary election, only lists of winners by constituency.
That is in sharp contrast to 2002, where results by region are available. And that presidential election has some, uh, interesting results.
The national first round tally was Amadou Toumani Touré 28.0%, Soumaila Cissé 22.7%, Ibrahim Keita 20.7%, with Tiébilé Dramé leading the long list of others at 3.9%.
Keita cried foul over his third place - and we'll see how it came to be in a sec - and the Constitutional Court ended up "solving" the issue by annulling the votes of everywhere with reports of irregularities - which had the advantage of getting Keita very close to Cissé but not ahead of him, 28.7 to 21.3 to 21.0 (to 4.0 Dramé). Keita then endorsed Touré for the runoff and he won in a landslide, with 64.4% of the vote, though on a reduced turnout.



Here be the regional results... including the later annulled votes (don't have the breakdown without them)...

first, core Mali as it were...
Kayes, 39% turnout, Cissé 24%, Keita 21%, Touré 17%, Dramé 12% (I am listing the top four and anybody over 5%). Runoff, turnout 30%, Touré 61%
Koulikoro, 33% turnout. Keita 26%, Touré 25%, Cissé 18%, Dramé 5%. Runoff, turnout 26%, Touré 66%
the capital city of Bamako, 33% turnout, Keita 37%, Touré 33%, Cissé just 10%, Mountaga Tall 6%. Runoff, turnout 24%, Touré a whopping 79%
Sikasso, turnout 41%, Touré 23%, Keita 18% despite being from the region, Cissé 16%, Mamadou Sangaré 8%, Moussa Coulibaly 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 67%
Ségou, turnout 38%, Touré 24%, Cissé 23%, Keita 21%, Tall 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 64%

Malians abroad, turnout 22% (that's almost 5% of the total vote cast!), Touré 39%, Keita 24%, Cissé 18%, Choguel Maďga 3%

Mopti. Touré's home region. Eastern end claimed (and at least partially held) by Azawad insurgents. Turnout 45%, Touré 46%, Cissé 23%,  Keita 11%, Coulibaly 2%

And in Azawad...
Tombouctou, turnout 54%, Cissé 46%, Touré 25%, Keita 12%, Dramé 2%. Runoff, turnout 49%, Cissé 54%.
Gao, turnout 46%, Cissé 43%, Touré 22%, Keita 19%, Maďga 3%. Runoff, turnout 44%, Cissé 54%.
And the wholly Touareg, and very low population, Kidal: turnout 51%, Cissé 43%, Keita 22%, Tall 13%, Dramé 8%, Touré 7%. Runoff, turnout 59%, Cissé 72%. Ahem.

Cissé is a northerner, of course; a Songhai I suppose? Touré's military background presumably did not help him any in the north.
Touré's first two prime ministers were also northerners... that changed right after his 2007 reelection. In which Cissé was supporting him, Keita being the main challenger, the official result being 72-19 on a turnout comparable to 2002's, with massive allegations of fraud that settled down, apparently because the opposition knew that Touré would have won a fair vote, just by a smaller margin; and from what little I can find on the issue, the capital of Bamako had become Keita's stronghold.
Hmmm. All I can really say is, ag is right, term limits are a good idea in countries like that.
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« Reply #73 on: April 08, 2012, 08:44:12 am »
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Why does everyone have to be "clearly FF" or "clearly not FF"?
They don't. There is an element of FF in most rebel movements, as well as an element of oppression.
You can be a FF in one respect and an oppressor in another. Often FFs become the new oppressors themselves. Like Mao or Mugabe.
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« Reply #74 on: April 08, 2012, 05:52:25 pm »
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Cissé is a northerner, of course; a Songhai I suppose?

I searched and while I didn't find anything definitive on his ethnicity, what I did find indicates that Cissé is a surname in use among the Mande peoples.  Possibly it is more widely used, but if not then he couldn't be Songhai.

In any case, given Cissé's politics, he will not be in favor of a separate Azawad.
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