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Author Topic: Coup d'etat in Mali  (Read 6531 times)
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« Reply #50 on: April 05, 2012, 05:43:47 pm »
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Tuaregs are linguistically very near to the Berbers in Morocco and Algeria. In West Africa the different groups are very mixed with each other, but is clear that the whole are between Senegal and Northern Nigeria is a complex chunk languages. In contrast the easiest new nations should be achieved in countries like Zimbabwe, Angola and Zambia.

At this point, I think that mass secessions anywhere in Africa would cause far more problems than it solves....though I do think the secession of South Sudan was to the greater good (except possibly for oppressive North Sudanese Islamists and 'Arab' supremacists, whose 'good' I just don't care about).
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« Reply #51 on: April 05, 2012, 10:28:55 pm »
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Found an article in French (remember, French is one of the major languages in West Africa) that should clear things up: http://afrique.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/04/05/les-rebelles-touareg-en-guerre-contre-al-qaida-au-maghreb-islamique/

Here's the GoogleTranslated translation:

Quote

Tuareg rebels in the war against al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb?

The situation is still evolving as fast in northern Mali, but this time there is no question of lightning advances toward Bamako. He would rather the turn of the war, with Tuareg rebels who would fight AQIM (Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb). Just when the Tuareg movement announced (Wednesday night) the "end of military operations"? In reality, this unilateral decision by the MNLA concerns only the advance southward, and then suspends the attacks towards loyalist areas. The lock, from this point of view, would have been Mopti. Precisely, the MNLA has not taken Mopti (except shift), and their troops, having driven or seen fleeing the loyalist troops across Northern Mali (Azawad), are now turning to domestic problems. This is where the problem arises with AQIM, and the forces of another rebel leader, Iyad ag Ghali, who seems opposed to the MNLA and closer to AQIM.

The problem is particularly acute in Timbuktu, where all these forces are nested inside each other for two days, but also in the rest of Azawad, this Northern Mali that could eventually become a territory in search of its autonomy. Gao, for example, elements of AQIM close (probably MUJOA group), participated according to the MNLA hostage during the consulate of Algeria. Two people with explosive belts would be right now with the hostages, and a source within the MNLA says his group "is reluctant to storm!" We see how the situation produces surprising effects.

But back to Timbuktu. The MNLA, controlled locally by its chief of staff, Mohamed Ag Najim was the first to come into town for the weekend, almost without a struggle, is materialized before another group, Ansar Dine, ordered by Iyag ag Ghali, and some AQIM katibas. Evidenced by various sources, including those contacted by telephone in the city.

Between the MNLA and AQIM, divorce is vital

In fact impossible to go to Timbuktu, and it must be based on several sources, but without personal verification and direct, to understand what is taking place.

But what is happening could be of paramount importance. In essence, the MNLA plans to address this to AQIM, why not with the help of Western countries and the region (West Africa). This is ag Sid'Ahmed Hama, External Relations and spokesperson for the Executive Office of the MNLA, which explains at midday Thursday.

Between the MNLA and AQIM, divorce is vital for Tuareg rebels who fear "amalgam" and have in mind the fate of their Azawad. To support his point of view, Hama dates back to ag Sid'Ahmed taking Timbuktu: The MNLA had negotiated entry into the city with some militias "Arab", but these militias are of several types. The first group, the most numerous, let him in without a fight in the MNLA Timbuktu, which had been abandoned by the regular troops (rather from the south of the country). The others are either relatives of Ansar Dine or members of pro-AQIM networks they are usually used for refueling. (More katibas because, over the years, had a habit of coming to shop in the cities, never raise ration of the Malian authorities).

Peaceful coexistence could be shattered soon

According to Hama ag Sid'Ahmed AQIM, it is the latter group would have raced to the abandoned camp to be used in military equipment. "The small group of Arabs who are the network of AQIM in Timbuktu long took up arms and ammunition in the camp. Everyone was doing and was using. It was one of the objectives of AQIM in Timbuktu. "
Since then, a sort of calm has been established in Timbuktu. forces MNLA, up to Thursday afternoon, were concentrated at the airport, but also went to the center, or hospital, run by a mixture of AQIM forces, local militias and fighters of Ansar Dine. A form of peaceful coexistence, probably short life expectancy.
Who should be shattered soon as the MNLA, according to his spokesman of the executive, would give an ultimatum until Friday to AQIM and Iyad ag Ghali troops to leave Timbuktu, otherwise the fighting begin . The same source, men can be classified as members of AQIM would be 146 on the extent of the city. The MNLA even claims to block the road AQIM South!

The MNLA goes even further: in a second step, this would all positions of AQIM in Mali that could be attacked, mainly in the north east, towards the Adora N'Fughas, area where normally Abu Zeid, one of the hardest emirs of AQIM, which still holds four French hostages.

In considering this war against AQIM, the MNLA offers to cooperate with countries in the region, which are now gathered in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, to advance on the definition of an African force could be deployed between North and South Mali. For such a hypothesis took shape, and a force still hypothetical eventually there should be a serious international support, probably a UN resolution, and an almost complete logistical support for this force. The MNLA proposes to Western countries "like France for example" (but also the U.S.) to participate in this operation Anti-AQIM. Waiting to see if this hypothesis is taking shape.

Meanwhile, pressure continues on the captain Sanogo, the junta leader in Bamako, to convince him to leave office. If he took this decision, perhaps soon, the path would be easier for an anti-AQIM. And the overthrow of Amadou Toumani Toure would have led to this ....

Since I don't speak French, this is the best I can give you.
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« Reply #52 on: April 06, 2012, 12:55:54 am »
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The rebels have declared independence as a sovereign state:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17635437
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« Reply #53 on: April 06, 2012, 04:47:21 am »
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A short dictator (wannabe)! Long live ancient stereotypes! (Yeah, the small guy with the beret is the junta chief Amadou Sanogo.)
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« Reply #54 on: April 06, 2012, 11:38:54 am »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?
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« Reply #55 on: April 06, 2012, 11:50:28 am »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?

It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
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« Reply #56 on: April 06, 2012, 01:50:36 pm »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?
It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
Thats the most likely IMO.
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« Reply #57 on: April 06, 2012, 03:18:35 pm »
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Why am I always confusing Mali with Malawi? :/
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« Reply #58 on: April 06, 2012, 03:18:53 pm »
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Maybe we need another thread, keeping this one to describe the fate of the Sanogo regime and another one to discuss the putative state of Azawad?

...At the very least the Mali/Azawad divorce would create decent-looking countries on the map.
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« Reply #59 on: April 06, 2012, 05:41:49 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
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« Reply #60 on: April 06, 2012, 05:52:16 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
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« Reply #61 on: April 06, 2012, 08:10:21 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuaregs qualify as FF.
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« Reply #62 on: April 06, 2012, 09:03:11 pm »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuaregs qualify as FF.

Does knowing that the South Sudanese Liberation Army used child soldiers just like Kony's group dampen your opinion of them at all?
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« Reply #63 on: April 06, 2012, 09:57:59 pm »
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You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?

It's possible he'll just bow down, as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276
Looks to be the case assuming he doesn't renege on the deal.
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« Reply #64 on: April 07, 2012, 04:16:39 am »
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Touareg fighting against Mali proper adopting Islamism when their opponents have always been the more orthodox Muslims is about the best proof there could be of the following premise:
That groups or people with a grievance will adopt some ideology, and usually one that happens to be en vogue at the moment (and it helps if there's funds or allies available for people with that ideology), and trying to explain events with the ideology rather than the other way round is a fool's errand. As viz. South East Asian Communism in the 50s etc pp.

EDIT: Though the Government of Mali has never been Islamist, of course. I guess for a perfect example, you'd want that component thrown in as well. Grin
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« Reply #65 on: April 07, 2012, 07:21:26 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?
The media relies on the Mali for most of their opinion, and that is the line coming out of the south.  What you have here is a case of shoddy journalism.
I think that the South Sudanese being partly Christian and fighting a Moslem government, that has imposed Sharia law, automatically gives them more sympathy in the West.
Both parties are (or in the case of SoSuds were) obviously rebels. FF is always a subjective label, IMO both SoSud and Tuareg's qualify as FF.

Does knowing that the South Sudanese Liberation Army used child soldiers just like Kony's group dampen your opinion of them at all?
Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

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« Reply #66 on: April 07, 2012, 08:16:02 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?

Because the South Sudanese are Christian. The media also conveniently forgot to mention that South Sudan is an authoritarian single-party state while they got mass erections out of South Sudan's independence.
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« Reply #67 on: April 07, 2012, 11:05:13 am »
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Why are the South Sudanese separatists called Freedom Fighters, when the Azawad separatists are called rebels and (without any proof) al-Qaida supporters?

Because the South Sudanese are Christian. The media also conveniently forgot to mention that South Sudan is an authoritarian single-party state while they got mass erections out of South Sudan's independence.
Still not as bad as the genocidal military regime of Omar Al Bashir in Khartoum.
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« Reply #68 on: April 07, 2012, 02:00:04 pm »
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Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

This is a very dangerous black and white view of the world. The Taliban also fought against oppression of their people and "for freedom". The CIA is now sponsoring perhaps dozens of armed groups in Iran, many of which make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. And besides, South Africa was only a success because Mandela broke with the ANC's violent past and preached reconciliation. We can easily imagine an alternate ending where the ANC becomes like ZANU-PF where a Freedom Fighter gradually becomes an oppressive dictator.
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« Reply #69 on: April 07, 2012, 04:02:11 pm »
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Of course. I don't sympathize with their methods. But their cause is still just. If you fight for freedom and against the oppression of your people you are a freedomfighter in my book - no matter what methods you use.
ANC used child soldiers and tortured perceived traitors in their camps. But they obviously were FF.

This is a very dangerous black and white view of the world. The Taliban also fought against oppression of their people and "for freedom". The CIA is now sponsoring perhaps dozens of armed groups in Iran, many of which make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. And besides, South Africa was only a success because Mandela broke with the ANC's violent past and preached reconciliation. We can easily imagine an alternate ending where the ANC becomes like ZANU-PF where a Freedom Fighter gradually becomes an oppressive dictator.
Yes. ANC could have been another dictatorial one-party (and there is still a small risk they could go that way). But you cant deny that their cause was just - making them FF.
The Taliban didn't fight for freedom. They fought to uphold gender apartheid and religious intolerance. I could never view that as "freedom", even if they believed that themselves.
The people of South Sudan has been oppressed in such an extreme way, that some sort of independence is the only way forward and the Tuaregs have a very good claim to independence from the alien culture in the South.
Both worthy causes.

I don't believe that any group claiming to fight for freedom or against oppression is FFs. An example:

ETA 2000: Clearly not FF since the Basques were not oppressed by the modern Spanish state, which is a democracy and has given them autonomy which protects their language and culture. They could (de facto) obtain independence by getting a majority for it in their parliament and holding a referendum. And a majority of the Basques had accepted autonomy in a referendum.

ETA 1970: Fighting the fascists. Clearly FF - even if they used terror.

So even though ETA had the same self perception, goals, methods and ideology in 1970 and 2000. They changed from FFs to terrorists IMO. But as I said FF is a highly subjective term. "One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter".
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« Reply #70 on: April 07, 2012, 05:38:00 pm »
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On ETA subject, didn't they abandonned terror and armed struggle last year?
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« Reply #71 on: April 07, 2012, 08:15:11 pm »
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Why does everyone have to be "clearly FF" or "clearly not FF"?
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« Reply #72 on: April 08, 2012, 02:22:19 am »
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Yes. ANC could have been another dictatorial one-party (and there is still a small risk they could go that way). But you cant deny that their cause was just - making them FF.
The Taliban didn't fight for freedom. They fought to uphold gender apartheid and religious intolerance. I could never view that as "freedom", even if they believed that themselves.
The people of South Sudan has been oppressed in such an extreme way, that some sort of independence is the only way forward and the Tuaregs have a very good claim to independence from the alien culture in the South.
Both worthy causes.
According to that definition, a group can only be called "Freedom Fighters" in retrospect. The American Revolutionaries rebelled against a government which was generally governed by law and was (for its time) very democratic, and committed horrors against loyalists. Someone in 1975 would have seen the ANC and ZANU-PF as equally deserving to be called Freedom Fighters. When the People's Liberation Army marched through China in the late 1940s, they were almost universally welcomed by the peasants as liberators from oppressive and corrupt landlords, and in fact Mao depended hugely on peasants volunteering in droves. And let's not forget a whole slew of right-wing Republicans are hailing MEK as "Freedom Fighters" when they make the Ayatollahs look like Confucian sages in comparison. "Freedom Fighters" is 95% propaganda.

Quote
I don't believe that any group claiming to fight for freedom or against oppression is FFs. An example:

ETA 2000: Clearly not FF since the Basques were not oppressed by the modern Spanish state, which is a democracy and has given them autonomy which protects their language and culture. They could (de facto) obtain independence by getting a majority for it in their parliament and holding a referendum. And a majority of the Basques had accepted autonomy in a referendum.

ETA 1970: Fighting the fascists. Clearly FF - even if they used terror.

So even though ETA had the same self perception, goals, methods and ideology in 1970 and 2000. They changed from FFs to terrorists IMO. But as I said FF is a highly subjective term. "One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter".
But doesn't this make descriptions change in retrospect? It's very dangerous to reduce the world to simple black and white.
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« Reply #73 on: April 08, 2012, 02:58:57 am »
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"Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
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« Reply #74 on: April 08, 2012, 06:37:36 am »
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I cannot find regional results for the 2007 presidential elections anywhere, and for the parliamentary election, only lists of winners by constituency.
That is in sharp contrast to 2002, where results by region are available. And that presidential election has some, uh, interesting results.
The national first round tally was Amadou Toumani Touré 28.0%, Soumaila Cissé 22.7%, Ibrahim Keita 20.7%, with Tiébilé Dramé leading the long list of others at 3.9%.
Keita cried foul over his third place - and we'll see how it came to be in a sec - and the Constitutional Court ended up "solving" the issue by annulling the votes of everywhere with reports of irregularities - which had the advantage of getting Keita very close to Cissé but not ahead of him, 28.7 to 21.3 to 21.0 (to 4.0 Dramé). Keita then endorsed Touré for the runoff and he won in a landslide, with 64.4% of the vote, though on a reduced turnout.



Here be the regional results... including the later annulled votes (don't have the breakdown without them)...

first, core Mali as it were...
Kayes, 39% turnout, Cissé 24%, Keita 21%, Touré 17%, Dramé 12% (I am listing the top four and anybody over 5%). Runoff, turnout 30%, Touré 61%
Koulikoro, 33% turnout. Keita 26%, Touré 25%, Cissé 18%, Dramé 5%. Runoff, turnout 26%, Touré 66%
the capital city of Bamako, 33% turnout, Keita 37%, Touré 33%, Cissé just 10%, Mountaga Tall 6%. Runoff, turnout 24%, Touré a whopping 79%
Sikasso, turnout 41%, Touré 23%, Keita 18% despite being from the region, Cissé 16%, Mamadou Sangaré 8%, Moussa Coulibaly 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 67%
Ségou, turnout 38%, Touré 24%, Cissé 23%, Keita 21%, Tall 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 64%

Malians abroad, turnout 22% (that's almost 5% of the total vote cast!), Touré 39%, Keita 24%, Cissé 18%, Choguel Maïga 3%

Mopti. Touré's home region. Eastern end claimed (and at least partially held) by Azawad insurgents. Turnout 45%, Touré 46%, Cissé 23%,  Keita 11%, Coulibaly 2%

And in Azawad...
Tombouctou, turnout 54%, Cissé 46%, Touré 25%, Keita 12%, Dramé 2%. Runoff, turnout 49%, Cissé 54%.
Gao, turnout 46%, Cissé 43%, Touré 22%, Keita 19%, Maïga 3%. Runoff, turnout 44%, Cissé 54%.
And the wholly Touareg, and very low population, Kidal: turnout 51%, Cissé 43%, Keita 22%, Tall 13%, Dramé 8%, Touré 7%. Runoff, turnout 59%, Cissé 72%. Ahem.

Cissé is a northerner, of course; a Songhai I suppose? Touré's military background presumably did not help him any in the north.
Touré's first two prime ministers were also northerners... that changed right after his 2007 reelection. In which Cissé was supporting him, Keita being the main challenger, the official result being 72-19 on a turnout comparable to 2002's, with massive allegations of fraud that settled down, apparently because the opposition knew that Touré would have won a fair vote, just by a smaller margin; and from what little I can find on the issue, the capital of Bamako had become Keita's stronghold.
Hmmm. All I can really say is, ag is right, term limits are a good idea in countries like that.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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