Coup d'etat in Mali

[minionofmidas]

Nice video.

[minionofmidas]

Also, another new country so soon after South Sudan? That would confirm all the fears of African heads of states and the West about redrawing African boundaries being a pandora's box best left unopened.

[minionofmidas]

Well, Sudan is really just the historical name of what later came to be known as the Sahel - the zone of somewhat marginal agriculture between the desert and the forest, with closer links across the desert than across the forest, and Muslim as a result. The real divide-bridging monstrosities are Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, not Mali, Tchad and Niger.

[minionofmidas]

Obviously the other divide exists as well, and obviously the forest belt has much diminished and had roads and settlement corridors carved through at European orders a century ago, but disagreeing with me is, in this case, simply identical to admitting you don't know the first thing about the history of the area.

[minionofmidas]

The Touareg aren't Arabic in the slightest...

[minionofmidas]

They are a people of the south side of the desert. Yes, they moved south at some point - a millennium ago. Are the Toubou "Arabic"?

[minionofmidas]

A short dictator (wannabe)! Long live ancient stereotypes! (Yeah, the small guy with the beret is the junta chief Amadou Sanogo.)

[minionofmidas]

Touareg fighting against Mali proper adopting Islamism when their opponents have always been the more orthodox Muslims is about the best proof there could be of the following premise:
That groups or people with a grievance will adopt some ideology, and usually one that happens to be en vogue at the moment (and it helps if there's funds or allies available for people with that ideology), and trying to explain events with the ideology rather than the other way round is a fool's errand. As viz. South East Asian Communism in the 50s etc pp.

EDIT: Though the Government of Mali has never been Islamist, of course. I guess for a perfect example, you'd want that component thrown in as well.

[minionofmidas]

I cannot find regional results for the 2007 presidential elections anywhere, and for the parliamentary election, only lists of winners by constituency.
That is in sharp contrast to 2002, where results by region are available. And that presidential election has some, uh, interesting results.
The national first round tally was Amadou Toumani Touré 28.0%, Soumaila Cissé 22.7%, Ibrahim Keita 20.7%, with Tiébilé Dramé leading the long list of others at 3.9%.
Keita cried foul over his third place - and we'll see how it came to be in a sec - and the Constitutional Court ended up "solving" the issue by annulling the votes of everywhere with reports of irregularities - which had the advantage of getting Keita very close to Cissé but not ahead of him, 28.7 to 21.3 to 21.0 (to 4.0 Dramé). Keita then endorsed Touré for the runoff and he won in a landslide, with 64.4% of the vote, though on a reduced turnout.



Here be the regional results... including the later annulled votes (don't have the breakdown without them)...

first, core Mali as it were...
Kayes, 39% turnout, Cissé 24%, Keita 21%, Touré 17%, Dramé 12% (I am listing the top four and anybody over 5%). Runoff, turnout 30%, Touré 61%
Koulikoro, 33% turnout. Keita 26%, Touré 25%, Cissé 18%, Dramé 5%. Runoff, turnout 26%, Touré 66%
the capital city of Bamako, 33% turnout, Keita 37%, Touré 33%, Cissé just 10%, Mountaga Tall 6%. Runoff, turnout 24%, Touré a whopping 79%
Sikasso, turnout 41%, Touré 23%, Keita 18% despite being from the region, Cissé 16%, Mamadou Sangaré 8%, Moussa Coulibaly 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 67%
Ségou, turnout 38%, Touré 24%, Cissé 23%, Keita 21%, Tall 7%. Runoff, turnout 27%, Touré 64%

Malians abroad, turnout 22% (that's almost 5% of the total vote cast!), Touré 39%, Keita 24%, Cissé 18%, Choguel Maïga 3%

Mopti. Touré's home region. Eastern end claimed (and at least partially held) by Azawad insurgents. Turnout 45%, Touré 46%, Cissé 23%,  Keita 11%, Coulibaly 2%

And in Azawad...
Tombouctou, turnout 54%, Cissé 46%, Touré 25%, Keita 12%, Dramé 2%. Runoff, turnout 49%, Cissé 54%.
Gao, turnout 46%, Cissé 43%, Touré 22%, Keita 19%, Maïga 3%. Runoff, turnout 44%, Cissé 54%.
And the wholly Touareg, and very low population, Kidal: turnout 51%, Cissé 43%, Keita 22%, Tall 13%, Dramé 8%, Touré 7%. Runoff, turnout 59%, Cissé 72%. Ahem.

Cissé is a northerner, of course; a Songhai I suppose? Touré's military background presumably did not help him any in the north.
Touré's first two prime ministers were also northerners... that changed right after his 2007 reelection. In which Cissé was supporting him, Keita being the main challenger, the official result being 72-19 on a turnout comparable to 2002's, with massive allegations of fraud that settled down, apparently because the opposition knew that Touré would have won a fair vote, just by a smaller margin; and from what little I can find on the issue, the capital of Bamako had become Keita's stronghold.
Hmmm. All I can really say is, ag is right, term limits are a good idea in countries like that.

[minionofmidas]

Cissé is a northerner, of course; a Songhai I suppose?

I searched and while I didn't find anything definitive on his ethnicity, what I did find indicates that Cissé is a surname in use among the Mande peoples.

Certainly not exclusively. A quick search found Fula and Wolof people by the name. Of course, West African languages/peoples are not actually endogamous groups or anything, which is a large part of the reason why such info isn't widely available for townsfolk - their ethnicity is frequently not clearly defined (and countries certainly aren't encouraging ethnic definition, what with the threat to "national" unity and all).

In any case, given Cissé's politics, he will not be in favor of a separate Azawad.

No, of course not.
There was peace or near-peace in the north for the first twenty years of democracy though - as long as Touareg had some hope that democracy might lead to a fairer treatment of their grievances. here (second half) is a current interview with him on the issue, bearing in mind that he's running for President again.

[minionofmidas]

Ansar Dine captures Tombouctou.

Um.

[minionofmidas]

They wouldn't be able to hold it long if they tried. Djenné feels kinda strongly about the place.