Coup d'etat in Mali

[Zioneer]

Heh, as a Mormon, Yeah Samake's possible victory in Mali (once this coup business is sorted out) makes me laugh every single time. Nope, the white, uncharismatic, businessman, conservative Mormon in the United States won't be leader of a country, but the black, raised in poverty, Peace Corp, innovative Mormon in Mali will be leader of a country. It's just so unexpected.

I'm curious about how the possible first Mormon president of a country will combat the Tuaregs; will he use the same kind of political/rhetorical/military tactics as his predecessor, or will he do something completely out of the box and interesting?

Regarding the actual rebellion; it looks like the Tuaregs might be more justified in leaving Mali than the justification of the Malians for keeping them in the nation. Northern Mali seems to be underdeveloped and neglected, so if the Tuaregs want to split off and create their own nation, I think that's okay.

[Zioneer]

Considering the fact that the coup was supposedly to better fight the rebels, it seems like a pretty big failure so far.

Yes and no.  The troops were tired of being treated like expendables used to keep the Azawad part of Mali.  I hope folks haven't yet gone out ad bought new maps with South Sudan on it.  While the coup leaders have said they are restoring the constitution, they (or a restored civilian government) may decide to give the the rebels their independence rather than fight a war to retake what has been lost.

Timbuktu and Gao aren't likely to be close to majority Tuareg these days. So unless the rebel movement is more pan regional rather than ethnic. I don't see how independence is going to work out well.

According to this long but well-researched and excellent article, it seems the Azawadis have thought of that, and the younger generation are trying to rebrand the independence movement as a pan-ethnic regional movement. The article mentions Arabs and Black Africans joining the rebel army as well.

So I think they're looking at ethnic problems and trying to beat them before independence.

[Zioneer]

What the heck?  I got death points and a censorship just for mentioning that George Lucas based a fictional alien people on the Tuareg? I don't understand?  How is this offensive?  How is it 'trolling'?  Its a simple fact, and a prominent appearance of the Tuareg in Western culture. Why on earth would anyone receive death points for something like that? 

Seems a bit over the top. I suppose it was trolling, but the semi-relevant kind.

Bad news: Tuareg leaders are meeting Al Quaeda bosses in Timbuktu and they are about to impose Sharia law in the areas they control.

Link? The MNLA has been mostly secular throughout this entire rebellion, so I'd have to see some evidence before I believe that. And if it's from a Malian state news source, I wouldn't trust it.

[Zioneer]

At least some Touareg leaders seem to be genuinely unhappy about the sudden presence of 'out-of-region' islamists on their general side of this conflict, to say the least.

From what I can tell, the leader of the Tuareg Islamists got kicked out of the main group for being too fanatical. And the Ansar Dine fringe rebels seem to be weak compared to the larger MNLA. It's only the incompetence of the coup leaders that's letting them invade Southern Mali.

[Zioneer]

Found an article in French (remember, French is one of the major languages in West Africa) that should clear things up: http://afrique.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/04/05/les-rebelles-touareg-en-guerre-contre-al-qaida-au-maghreb-islamique/

Here's the GoogleTranslated translation:

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Since I don't speak French, this is the best I can give you.

[Zioneer]

You know, I get the feeling that Sanogo won't last the month. He's going to get overthrown or killed before April ends. Anyone else think so?