Is Pennsylvania "in play"..?

[12th Doctor]

This doesn't suprise me in the least.  It's what I've been saying for the past two weeks.  I thought Kerry would win in PA, I know longer believe that.  I now think that Bush could acctually lose Ohio and win in PA.

[12th Doctor]

Something I would like to mention about a number of these polls is that most polls will go off of "Likely voters".  May I remind you that those voters who have registered since 9/11 as show in this chart are not being counted by many polls because they haven't voted yet.  The polls will shift soon when ALL states finish their primaries and new voters are counted.  I think that this shift will be desidedly GOP.

[12th Doctor]

Although the Republicans have increased registration, keep in mind that unaffiliated voters should turn Democratic by a margin varying from 3:2 for Kerry to 3:1, my estimate for NH. Pennsylvania should be at a little less than 3:2, but it should still be enough for Kerry.

Also, a lot of these new Republican registers may have been the type to be bought over by the line "You voted Republican. Why don't you register Republican?" In other words conservative "Reagan" or Oklahoma-type Democrats that voted for Reagan, voted Republican for Congress starting in '94, and only after 9/11 bothered to officially abandon the Democrats. In that case, changes in voter registration shouldn't have THAT huge of an impact on electoral results... although conservatives as a whole will be a majority in government, they already are.

Not so.  i read that the Republicans are picking up with young voters.

[12th Doctor]

Although the Republicans have increased registration, keep in mind that unaffiliated voters should turn Democratic by a margin varying from 3:2 for Kerry to 3:1, my estimate for NH. Pennsylvania should be at a little less than 3:2, but it should still be enough for Kerry.

Also, a lot of these new Republican registers may have been the type to be bought over by the line "You voted Republican. Why don't you register Republican?" In other words conservative "Reagan" or Oklahoma-type Democrats that voted for Reagan, voted Republican for Congress starting in '94, and only after 9/11 bothered to officially abandon the Democrats. In that case, changes in voter registration shouldn't have THAT huge of an impact on electoral results... although conservatives as a whole will be a majority in government, they already are.

Not so.  i read that the Republicans are picking up with young voters.

Thats not good news for Republicans either because young people generally they don't vote, they're one of the most marginalized demographics in politics.

But New Deal voters are dying off in huge numbers.  They are the strongest Dem bloc.

[12th Doctor]

Nice CT.  You've managed now not only to insult those of us from the South, but now you've insulted those who are on this board from other countries.  Gustaf, Realpolitik, and others have more knowledge of American politics in their little finger than you have in that arrogant little brain of yours.

Oh please, while I agree the foreign liberlas are far more intelligent than trash such as you, they aren't that educated, at least not yet.  

Why is it that every single day you say that "this is my last post" and then you come back?