What are the chances of this map coming true?

[vern1988]

This would end up with a tie.

[Thomas D]

20%. Iowa is looking good for the President. But he won't win NE-2 again

[Vasall des Midas]

20%.

Uh... what? An exact scenario at 20%? And one that requires quite the swing towards Romney?
Someone needs to retake Probabilities 101.

[True Federalist]

Zero chance.  It's impossible for Obama to take NE-2 while losing both Iowa and Wisconsin.

This is probably the most likely tied EV map:


This is another plausible one, but not as likely as the first I gave:

[Big Wiggly Style]

Pretty decent chance, though not extremely likely. The best scenario for a tie, in my opinion, would be this:

[cavalcade]

Kerry + OH + NM is also a tie.

[True Federalist]

Pretty decent chance, though not extremely likely. The best scenario for a tie, in my opinion, would be this:

Possible, but its chances have gone down the last few weeks as the Wisconsin bump from picking Ryan has faded.

Kerry + OH + NM is also a tie.

Possible by not likely.  It looks like if Obama only gets one of Ohio and Virginia he's far likelier to get Virginia instead of Ohio.

[5280/East California]

This would end up with a tie.

Take out Nevada from Romney, and you have yourself a good map.

[opebo]

Take out Nevada from Romney, and you have yourself a good map.

I would be happy with that. 



Though I see no reason to expect it.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

Take out Nevada from Romney, and you have yourself a good map.

I would be happy with that. 

(20th post, need 1 more, can't include map)
Though I see no reason to expect it.

It has a better probability than the originals though, I think maybe 3-4% chance that it will tie in general

[Californian Tony]

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.2%

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.2%

Alittle higher, atleast 1%