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Author Topic: Will Obama break 65% in California?  (Read 3547 times)
Хahar
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« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2012, 09:41:31 pm »
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The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote

What are you seeing with the Silicon Valley vote? I can't find any reason voters here would turn against Obama in large numbers; Obama seems to me to be almost the perfect Democrat to win by enormous margins in the Bay Area. Certainly the economy isn't especially bad, at least when compared to a decade ago.
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« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2012, 09:49:16 pm »
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No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

Ok, we have known for awhile that Winny the Fool was a troll but this is the icing on the cake. Then he has the nerve to call someone else a hack! A true masterpiece.

When it comes to being a hack, I can't hold a candle to you Rick, er, I mean Phil.

Winny the Fool, that's very clever.  Did you pick that up from the little 6 year old down the street? 
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Хahar
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« Reply #27 on: March 22, 2012, 09:50:02 pm »
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OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

That's really not true at all:



That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.
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Torie
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« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2012, 10:30:11 pm »
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The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote

What are you seeing with the Silicon Valley vote? I can't find any reason voters here would turn against Obama in large numbers; Obama seems to me to be almost the perfect Democrat to win by enormous margins in the Bay Area. Certainly the economy isn't especially bad, at least when compared to a decade ago.

It if it existed, would be because they think Obama is bad in general for economic growth, and anti-business, and wants to tax them too much. Again, it would be more with the white vote up there, if at all.
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« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2012, 10:35:20 pm »
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OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

That's really not true at all:



That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

The bulk of this within the same demographic is regionalism. Campbell was the hometown boy in the Bay area, and well known. He was invisible down south. But I did my bit. I gave him the max contribution. In addition, he was a college classmate of mine. We exchanged a couple of emails during his campaign. He's a truly nice guy - and of course, smart as a whip, except when it comes to getting out the whip on his opposition.
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« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2012, 10:41:48 pm »
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OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.


That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

Reps Royce (R-40) and Campbell III (R-48) are moderate Republicans (at least, compared to the rest of the national party).

Northern OC is far-right, the further south you go the more moderate it gets. Torie's precinct breakdown for Prop 8 highlighted it pretty clearly.
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« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2012, 01:14:21 pm »
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no it wont happen.

but it is more likely to happen than mitt winning the state.
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« Reply #32 on: March 23, 2012, 02:46:44 pm »
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No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

....you and my father are the only people in the world who believe this...
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« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2012, 03:07:47 pm »
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No. I don't expect Obama to do as well in 2008 though. He'll win with somewhere between 55-60% of the vote.
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« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2012, 09:34:23 pm »
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These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  Wink
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« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2012, 09:35:52 pm »
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No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

....you and my father are the only people in the world who believe this...

Your father is a wise man.
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House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2012, 09:37:50 pm »
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No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

....you and my father are the only people in the world who believe this...

Your father is a wise man.

That post is still a gem.
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Meeker
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« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2012, 09:41:25 pm »
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We're back on the "Republicans might win California" thing? What is this, 1996?
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« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2012, 09:44:43 pm »
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OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.


That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

Reps Royce (R-40) and Campbell III (R-48) are moderate Republicans (at least, compared to the rest of the national party).

Northern OC is far-right, the further south you go the more moderate it gets. Torie's precinct breakdown for Prop 8 highlighted it pretty clearly.

Royce and Campbell are anything but moderate.  Royce has a lifetime ACU rating of 98 and Campbell's lifetime rating is 92. I would, however, say that they aren't nearly as bad as some of the past OC congressman (Dannemeyer, Utt, Schmitz etc).
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« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2012, 09:46:25 pm »
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These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  Wink

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?
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« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2012, 09:57:19 pm »
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These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  Wink

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.
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President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2012, 10:06:55 pm »
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No, and this thread is trolling.
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« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2012, 11:05:16 pm »
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We're back on the "Republicans might win California" thing? What is this, 1996?

In 2000, Bush outspent Gore $11 million to $0 in California. It's called arrogant Republicans.
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They call me PR
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« Reply #43 on: April 14, 2012, 11:15:06 pm »
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OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.


That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

Reps Royce (R-40) and Campbell III (R-48) are moderate Republicans (at least, compared to the rest of the national party).

Northern OC is far-right, the further south you go the more moderate it gets. Torie's precinct breakdown for Prop 8 highlighted it pretty clearly.

OC in the past, though, was the capital of the American far right.
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« Reply #44 on: April 14, 2012, 11:17:15 pm »
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Romney's message of economic freedom is certainly going to appeal to more than 35% of the California electorate. I expect him to do much better with white collar voters than McCain.
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« Reply #45 on: April 14, 2012, 11:21:17 pm »
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Romney's message of economic freedom is certainly going to appeal to more than 35% of the California electorate. I expect him to do much better with white collar voters than McCain.


Oh white collar CA voters are among Obama's biggest fans.
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« Reply #46 on: April 14, 2012, 11:32:33 pm »
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He wont break 65% in California if there were limited voting ballots with Obama on them.
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« Reply #47 on: April 15, 2012, 01:43:22 pm »
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These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  Wink

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.

Certain areas of Orange County maybe she would be fine. Simi Valley and Santa Clarita too. But you are wrong about Thousand Oaks and way off on Westlake and Agoura. She is the reason why they swung so hard against the Republicans. Well, her and Bush, but they come off similarly don't they as ignorant rural bumpkins. That's not going to play well in affluent suburbs. Come on now. On the whole Sarah Palin won't really really help anywhere in California except maybe the Central Valley.
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« Reply #48 on: April 16, 2012, 12:43:40 am »
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No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

I got bored and decided to see what 2008 would've been like if CA was around that margin.

This is what I got.

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Torie
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« Reply #49 on: April 16, 2012, 10:14:56 am »
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These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  Wink

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.

Certain areas of Orange County maybe she would be fine. Simi Valley and Santa Clarita too. But you are wrong about Thousand Oaks and way off on Westlake and Agoura. She is the reason why they swung so hard against the Republicans. Well, her and Bush, but they come off similarly don't they as ignorant rural bumpkins. That's not going to play well in affluent suburbs. Come on now. On the whole Sarah Palin won't really really help anywhere in California except maybe the Central Valley.

Yes, in my neck of the woods, Palin is toxic. If Mittens doesn't want my vote, the quickest way to achieve that would be to put Palin on the ticket.  Tongue

If Palin is going to be let out of the closet at all, her wanderings should be limited to the fossil fuel belt. She can say "drill baby drill," in about 25 different ways, wrapped up in the American flag, patriotism, and freeing the shining city on the hill from all of those horrible folks abroad who have oil, most of which need be defunded, particularly all those nasty folks who hate Israel. Russia sucks too.  So in CA, she can go to Bakersfield, and maybe drive down to beautiful downtown Taft. Then she should get the F out, and head to western North Dakota, and then go to West Virginia, and maybe the fiighting 9th CD in Virginia, and then fly back to Wasila. I assume she won't be needed in TX and OK. Smiley

Oh, here is the view one can savor in Taft, a place untainted by "bad" people, who hate everything America stands for:




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