Will Obama break 65% in California?

[Хahar 🤔]

My first inclination would be to say that that would be ridiculous, but four years ago I didn't think that he could break 60%. 65% would require a 4.06% swing from 2008. For reference, here's what the 2008 election would look like with a 4.06% uniform national swing:

[Хahar 🤔]

The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote

What are you seeing with the Silicon Valley vote? I can't find any reason voters here would turn against Obama in large numbers; Obama seems to me to be almost the perfect Democrat to win by enormous margins in the Bay Area. Certainly the economy isn't especially bad, at least when compared to a decade ago.

[Хahar 🤔]

OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

That's really not true at all:



That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.