Will Obama break 65% in California?

[Sbane]

No, he will not. I think California will be about 16-17 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Even getting to 65% of the two party vote (with third parties it gets even harder to hit 65% and California tends to vote in higher numbers for third parties) would imply a 13-14 point Obama win. And if Obama does win that big, the biggest trends towards him will not be in California, but in other parts of the country.

With a roaring economy and a Santorum candidacy, it might be possible. Gingrich could probably achieve it though.

[Sbane]

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

[Sbane]

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time. 

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.

Certain areas of Orange County maybe she would be fine. Simi Valley and Santa Clarita too. But you are wrong about Thousand Oaks and way off on Westlake and Agoura. She is the reason why they swung so hard against the Republicans. Well, her and Bush, but they come off similarly don't they as ignorant rural bumpkins. That's not going to play well in affluent suburbs. Come on now. On the whole Sarah Palin won't really really help anywhere in California except maybe the Central Valley.

[Sbane]

No, the demographics that swung towards Obama in CA in 2008 will stabilize or reverse. Around 60% again is a possibility, though of course both are more likely than Romney carrying Calif.

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link?

Trust us. The beaches are much more socially liberal than north OC, which consists of Mexicans and people who hate Mexicans.