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Author Topic: Texas 1973 - one of the most underrated gerrymanders?  (Read 818 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: April 30, 2012, 07:17:07 pm »
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The 1970s congressional map was a pure genius map in my opinion. Let me explain what was done.

Wright Patman was a populist democrat representing a northeastern TX district. Tyler and Longview, both noveau riche oil towns, were kept out of his district and put in the 4th.

Dallas County voted 56% for Ford in 1976 but only one of the districts actually voted for him. The most ultraconservative precincts in north dallas were placed in with southwestern Collin County and southeastern Denton County. The collin county precincts made sure that they could do no damage in Ray Roberts' (TX-04) district. While Roberts district did have the archconservative oil towns of Tyler and Longview, it helped that he didn't have the Plano area and had some rural democrat territory. The rest of Dallas County was in the 5th, 6th, and 24th districts

Tarrant County also narrowly voted for Ford in 1976. The most democratic parts of the county were put into a single district (the 12th), which was Jim Wright's district. The more republican areas of the county (like Arlington) were glued to some of the most straight ticket democrat precincts of South Dallas. The 5th district also took in some working class eastern suburbs of Dallas as well as some black precincts. The 6th district took in some republican areas of SW Tarrant County and republican Brazos County, but also took in some black areas and rural yellow dog areas to balance it out.

Population growth necessitated that a new district was going to be made in the Houston area. A new district was created in the downtown region that leaned heavily democrat. It was worried that the creation of the district would hurt Bob Eckhardt, in an adjacent district. To compensate, a few amount of black precincts were left in Eckhardt's district to help him out. Also, the most GOP areas of NE Harris County (Kingwood) was left out and put in the 9th. Jack Brooks was a fairly liberal democrat by Texas standards, but the labor-heavy areas like Jefferson County and Galveston County (which was heavily democrat back then) could more then outvote it.

The gerrymander is reflected on the fact that the Democrats had a 22-2 delegation in the 95th congress and how the districts voted for president in 1976 (Carter won the state 51-48)

CD 18 75-24 Carter
CD 20 73-26 Carter
CD 15 65-34 Carter
CD 8 63-36 Carter
CD 1 60-40 Carter
CD 23 59-40 Carter
CD 9 59-41 Carter
CD 14 58-41 Carter
CD 2 58-42 Carter
CD 17 57-42 Carter
CD 11 57-43 Carter
CD 12 55-44 Carter
CD 24 55-44 Carter

CD 10 53-46 Carter
CD 5 53-47 Carter
CD 4 51-49 Carter
CD 6 51-49 Carter
CD 16 50-49 Ford
CD 13 50-49 Ford
CD 22 50-49 Ford
CD 19 57-42 Ford
CD 21 59-40 Ford
CD 3 72-27 Ford
CD 7 73-26 Ford

The bolded district is the median district. It seems that back then, voting was strictly an economic things. The wealthy districts in West Houston and North Dallas were the most republican; while the poorer districts such as in South Texas or inner city San Antonio were the most democrat. When it was time to redraw the lines again in 1981, there was talk of creating a 47% black congressional district in Dallas County which would have jeopardized the careers of Frost and Mattox. But the idea was nixed at the last minute.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2012, 07:19:45 pm by Don Edwards Revivalist »Logged
Miles
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 03:36:49 pm »
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Good analysis.

Here's the map you're referring to.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 05:00:43 pm »
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Also, the most GOP areas of NE Harris County (Kingwood) was left out and put in the 9th.
Kingwood barely existed then, and it didn't exist at all at the time of the census.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 07:30:08 pm »
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Wright Patman was a populist democrat representing a northeastern TX district. Tyler and Longview, both noveau riche oil towns, were kept out of his district and put in the 4th.
Patman and House Speaker Sam Rayburn were from adjacent districts along the Red River.

If you read the footnotes in Wesberry v Sanders, you will see that the most populous congressional district in the country was Dallas County, with just short of 1 million people (in 1960).  Joe Pool received more votes in losing that district, than Rayburn and Patman combined received.   Pool was the only losing Democrat in Texas.

Following the 1960 census, rather than creating new districts in the more populous areas, or equalizing the population, the legislature kept the old districts and made the added representatives at large.

During the 2000 redistricting hearings, Martin Frost's henchman Gerald Hebert bragged on how the legislature had made Joe Pool run at large in order to preserve the seats of long term House leaders like Rayburn and Patman (who was chairman of the Banking Committee).  In fact, it was done to deny creating additional districts in urban areas which might vote Republican, and was a blatant violation of OMOV.

It was only an accident of timing that Wesberry v Sanders was not Bush v Martin, which had already been won at the district court level, and was summarily affirmed by the US Supreme Court.   Bush, is George HW Bush, who was state GOP chairman at the time.

Rayburn died in 1961, so by the time the legislature finally redistricted they were more concerned about Patman.

If you compare the maps pre- and post-OMOV

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1958_1964.pdf

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1966.pdf

You will see that 1,3, and 4 in NE Texas were merged into 1 and 4, and 3 was moved to Dallas.   What they really did was pair the incumbents of 3 and 4 in the primary.   When you take Tyler, Gregg, Upshur, and Van Zandt you're grabbing the core of 3.  The 1972 map simply added a couple of more counties (Fannin and Henderson) to 1.  If they had added Gregg, they would have had to shift some counties the other way.

The 1974 court map split a few counties for better population equality.

Patman was knocked out of his chairmanship by the northern Democrat hegemonists, and died in 1975.

The 1966 map combined 2 and 7 in SE Texas, and moved 7 to Harris County, where Bush was elected.  It also moved 9, and 14 eastward along the coast (14 started out north of San Antonio and has now migrated to SE Texas).

The 1966 map also created TX-23 (from the at large representative).  Every redistricting since it has been tipped one way or the other, first as battle for control between Laredo and San Antonio, and later between Republicans and Democrats.

Tarrant County also narrowly voted for Ford in 1976. The most democratic parts of the county were put into a single district (the 12th), which was Jim Wright's district. The more republican areas of the county (like Arlington) were glued to some of the most straight ticket democrat precincts of South Dallas. The 5th district also took in some working class eastern suburbs of Dallas as well as some black precincts. The 6th district took in some republican areas of SW Tarrant County and republican Brazos County, but also took in some black areas and rural yellow dog areas to balance it out.
Olin Teague and Phill Gramm were both from College Station.  Putting Arlington into 24 ensured that Gramm could be elected as a Democrat in 1978, when Teague retired.

The gerrymander is reflected on the fact that the Democrats had a 22-2 delegation in the 95th congress and how the districts voted for president in 1976 (Carter won the state 51-48)
The 93rd Congress was the first after redistricting.   Republicans picked up TX-5 Alan Steelman, and Bob Price held TX-13 (he had been elected from TX-18 in the Panhandle.  TX-13 and TX-18 were merged, which is where the Amarillo-Wichita Falls linkage started.

Price lost in Watergate 1974, and Steelman was beatern in 1976.  But by the end of the decade Republicans had picked up 3 seats that had to be converted into Republican sinks (TX-22 when Ron Paul replaced the retiring Bob Casey, TX-21 where Tom Loeffler replaced Bob Krueger who lost in a run for the Senate, and TX-8 where Jack Fields defeated Eckhardt.

And in 1983 Gramm was elected as a Republican in TX-6.

so overall, the number of Republicans increased from 3 to 6 over the decade.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2012, 09:36:38 pm »
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Quote from:  link=topic=152854.msg3280050#msg3280050 date=1335831427



Quote from:  link=topic=152854.msg3280050#msg3280050 date=1335831427



The gerrymander is reflected on the fact that the Democrats had a 22-2 delegation in the 95th congress and how the districts voted for president in 1976 (Carter won the state 51-48)
The 93rd Congress was the first after redistricting.   Republicans picked up TX-5 Alan Steelman, and Bob Price held TX-13 (he had been elected from TX-18 in the Panhandle.  TX-13 and TX-18 were merged, which is where the Amarillo-Wichita Falls linkage started.

Price lost in Watergate 1974, and Steelman was beatern in 1976.  But by the end of the decade Republicans had picked up 3 seats that had to be converted into Republican sinks (TX-22 when Ron Paul replaced the retiring Bob Casey, TX-21 where Tom Loeffler replaced Bob Krueger who lost in a run for the Senate, and TX-8 where Jack Fields defeated Eckhardt.

And in 1983 Gramm was elected as a Republican in TX-6.

so overall, the number of Republicans increased from 3 to 6 over the decade.


well the lines were actually redrawn for the 1974 elections. The changes were pretty minimal except for in the DFW area. The 5th district lost the park cities which made it more dem leaning. The 24th district also lost Denton County. The 3rd district not only gained the park cities but also gained parts of Collin County and SE Denton County, where there was a lot of new subdivisions and presumably a place where republicans were moving into. So the 3rd was a mega-pack.

 They wanted to keep those areas out of Ray Roberts district to prevent him losing down the road. Had Plano been kept in CD 4, it likely would have gone republican in 1980, when Roberts retired and Hall won by only a 52-48 margin. Also, Gramm didn't switch parties until after the 1980 census map came out. Another thing is that Steelman didn't lose re-election. He was the closest thing in Texas to a moderate republican and he gave his seat up in 1976 to run against Bentsen.
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FBF
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2012, 11:43:06 pm »
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And here is the the 1976 presidential results by congressional district map, just for reference:



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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2012, 05:06:16 pm »
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And here is the the 1976 presidential results by congressional district map, just for reference:





So which were the 2 districts that had Republicans in the 95th Congress? I'm guessing they were the dark blue CDs in northern DFW and western Houston.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2012, 05:36:51 pm »
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And here is the the 1976 presidential results by congressional district map, just for reference:





So which were the 2 districts that had Republicans in the 95th Congress? I'm guessing they were the dark blue CDs in northern DFW and western Houston.

Correct.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2012, 07:54:17 am »
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And here is the the 1976 presidential results by congressional district map, just for reference:





So which were the 2 districts that had Republicans in the 95th Congress? I'm guessing they were the dark blue CDs in northern DFW and western Houston.
Ron Paul had won a special election in 1976 for the TX-22 (Houston+South), lost the general election in 1976, and was elected in 1978.

Tom Loeffler won in 1978 for TX-21 (San Antonio and points north)

Jack Fields won in 1980 in TX-8 (Houston north and east).
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