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Author Topic: Final Louisiana Predictions  (Read 847 times)
Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel
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« on: March 23, 2012, 03:37:40 pm »
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As I'll be gone through tomorrow:

Santorum - 45%
Romney - 31%
Gingrich - 17%
Paul - 6%
Others - 1%
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shua
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E: 1.16, S: -4.00

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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2012, 03:52:55 pm »
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41 Santorum
28 Romney
19 Gingrich
7 Paul
4 Roemer
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"Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard. . . But freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order."
- Justice Robert Jackson WV SBE v Barnette

http://tinyurl.com/bx359q5
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2012, 04:22:08 pm »
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40 Santorum
27 Romney
21 Gingrich
9 Paul
3 Roemer
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2012, 04:59:46 pm »
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45 Santorum
30 Romney
15 Gingrich
8 Paul
2 Others

Delegates:

Santorum 12
Romney  8
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2012, 05:08:58 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 04:59:46 pm

45 Santorum
30 Romney
15 Gingrich
8 Paul
2 Others

Delegates:

Santorum 12
Romney  8



Louisiana is a little odd in how the apportion delegates. A good synopsis is here

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

If your percentage predictions come true Santorum would get 9 delegates, Romney 6 and 5 would be uncommitted.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2012, 05:22:31 pm »
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Quote from: Minnesota Mike on March 23, 2012, 05:08:58 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 04:59:46 pm

45 Santorum
30 Romney
15 Gingrich
8 Paul
2 Others

Delegates:

Santorum 12
Romney  8



Louisiana is a little odd in how the apportion delegates. A good synopsis is here

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

If your percentage predictions come true Santorum would get 9 delegates, Romney 6 and 5 would be uncommitted.

Thanks.  That system is completely bizarre.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2012, 06:43:20 pm »
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Santorum - 45%
Romney - 31%
Gingrich - 16%
Paul - 7%
Other - 1%
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Matthew
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2012, 07:29:54 pm »
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Santorum 38%
Romney 32%
Gingrich 21%
Paul 9%
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Chris B
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2012, 10:17:03 pm »
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Santorum- 42%
Romney- 29%
Gingrich- 19%
Paul- 8%
Roemer- 2%
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All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2012, 11:52:09 pm »
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Santorum 44%
Romney 34%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 5%
Others 2%
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2012, 02:47:17 am »
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Santorum 48
Romney 27
Newt 16
Paul 7
Other 2
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RBH
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2012, 03:40:12 am »
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44% Santorum
28% Romney
18% Gingrich
  7% Paul
  2% Roemer
  1% Others
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2012, 10:02:12 am »
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Santorum - 43%
Romney - 32%
Gingrich - 17%
Paul - 6%
Others - 2%
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Torie's secret highway
LINCOLN REPUBLICAN
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2012, 11:34:23 am »
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If Mitt comes out with around 6- 8 delegates, that will be a success.
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2012, 02:01:58 pm »
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Santorum- 45%
Romney- 29%
Gingrich- 19%
Paul- 7%
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JulioMadrid
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E: -8.26, S: -8.35

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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2012, 02:16:55 pm »
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Santorum 46%
Romney 27%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 7%
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My evolution:
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09
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« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2012, 04:08:13 pm »
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I personally think Romney might overperform, but my model doubts it:

Rick Santorum 44.2%
Mitt Romney 30.1%
Newt Gingrich 19.9%
Ron Paul 5.8%
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Quote from: pbrower2a on March 31, 2013, 11:56:27 am
Sometimes, reality has a corporatist-traditionalist bias. Sometimes it has a liberal bias.
Quote from: Vosem on January 12, 2013, 05:05:23 pm
Economic score: +4.84
Social score: -6.52

At this rate, I'll lean left economically within a year or so Tongue
Bacon King
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« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2012, 04:51:15 pm »
S: 43
R: 29
G: 15
P: 10
other: 3

I haven't looked at any polls so this is more intuition than anything.
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Frodo
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2012, 05:00:17 pm »
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Savor this triumph, Keystone Phil, because this primary may very well be the last that Rick Santorum will ever win. 
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Summary of My Political Beliefs
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2012, 02:04:36 am »
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Quote from: Severe Frodo on March 24, 2012, 05:00:17 pm
Savor this triumph, Keystone Phil, because this primary may very well be the last that Rick Santorum will ever win. 

That's doubtful.
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Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2012, 02:10:45 am »
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Let me be the first to congratulate RBH...every single candidate within 1%.  Nice!
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