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Author Topic: Louisiana primary chat  (Read 4025 times)
Torie
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« on: March 24, 2012, 01:57:48 pm »
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Well since no one else has done it that I can see, I guess I will so that we can all savor Rick's triumph in Louisiana together.

Actually, I am starting it, because this dude seems to be leaking the exit poll, or pulling numbers from his butt, or something. I really have no idea, nor do I know who he is. Anyway, it seemed to me that this kind of spam or whatever, should be put in the chat thread. Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2012, 02:00:34 pm »
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Santorum's numbers seem low, and Mitten's numbers seem high.
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J. J.

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2012, 02:02:57 pm »
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It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.
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« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2012, 02:06:33 pm »
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Exit polling six hours before the end of actual voting?
Ok.
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« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2012, 02:08:05 pm »
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It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
realisticidealist
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« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2012, 02:09:06 pm »
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It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

If they are exit polls, that's good news for Santorum as he does his worst in the earliest exit polls.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2012, 02:12:34 pm »
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Exit polling six hours before the end of actual voting?
Ok.

Hey px, to keep yourself out of trouble for a few minutes, why don't you read the guy's "open letter" letter to Rick?  I mean, if you think the Mittbots around here are insufferable ... Tongue

Here's a lagniappe for you just to wet your appetite:

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Like Obama you are both lawyers who couldn’t make it actually practicing law, so you turned to politics , where flip flopping and spewing nonsense is not only accepted but its encouraged.
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Matthew
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2012, 02:18:35 pm »
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Louisiana will be a protest vote of the conservative base. Nothing more or less...Likely will give Santorum 3-5 more delegates then Romney.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2012, 02:23:17 pm »
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It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

If they are exit polls, that's good news for Santorum as he does his worst in the earliest exit polls.

Yeah, that is very true. I wonder why that is...olds? If Santorum is leading by 9 early, he should win by close to 15 I would think.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2012, 02:24:34 pm »
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Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2012, 02:26:45 pm »
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Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

I'll wait for real exit polls, thanks. Tongue
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2012, 02:28:51 pm »
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Does anyone know what time the polls close?
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2012, 02:35:17 pm »
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Does anyone know what time the polls close?

8pm cdt
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2012, 02:38:05 pm »
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Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

I'll wait for real exit polls, thanks. Tongue

Reading his text give me the impression that he is running his own exit poll. I think maybe he might need to switch his medications. You know, they try one, and if it doesn't work, they switch to another, and when they find the one that works - voila you can then, and only then, diagnose just what subspecies of psychosis someone has. And I am not making this up - that is actually how the skrinks diagnose mental illness.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2012, 02:41:47 pm »
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I posted a link to this guy's poll during IL. He got it wrong.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2012, 03:12:36 pm »
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Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

Indeed.  Brings tears to my eyes.
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QUINNIPIAC POLL: SAYS OBAMA WORST PRESIDENT SINCE WORLD WAR II


QUINNIPIAC POLL: 45% SAY COUNTRY WOULD BE BETTER OFF WITH ROMNEY AS PRESIDENT, ONLY 38% SAY COUNTRY IS BETTER OFF WITH OBAMA AS PRESIDENT
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« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2012, 04:33:22 pm »
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We'll still be in #atlasforum tonight; LA is boring so don't come for that, come for la communidad!
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2012, 05:04:27 pm »
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Etch a sketch is no big deal to LA primary voters. No surprise really.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2012, 05:14:10 pm »

Guys, as we've been over countless times, the media itself doesn't get the exit polls until 5pm Eastern, so any supposed leaks before that are certainly fake.

I'm off to see if there are any stories yet on the real exit polls...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2012, 05:16:58 pm »

News story on the actual exit polls:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/exit-poll-of-la-gop-presidential-voters-say-few-consider-etch-a-sketch-flap-important/2012/03/24/gIQANZyQYS_story.html

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Few voters in Louisiana’s Republican presidential primary say they were influenced by a comment by a Mitt Romney aide likening his campaign’s tactics to an Etch A Sketch toy, even though it was one of the week’s big political stories.

Early results of exit poll of voters show only about 1 in 5 of them saying the remarks played an important role in choosing a candidate.
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The exit poll shows more Louisiana GOP voters think the former Massachusets governor would be a stronger candidate than Rick Santorum this fall, but more say Santorum understands average people better than Romney.

The survey also illustrated the state’s conservative tilt.

More than 4 in voters say they are very conservative, exceeding the average of about 1 in 3 in states where GOP primary and caucus voters have been surveyed. Just over half said they are white born again or evangelical Christians, close to the previous average.

Just over half of Louisiana voters said the economy is the issue they most care about, a bit more than voters have typically said in other states.

Around 4 in 10 said the characteristic they most want in a candidate is one who can oust President Barack Obama in November.
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« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2012, 05:19:33 pm »

More exits:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/

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One of the highest concentrations to date of very conservative voters marks the Louisiana Republican primary, with a potentially record number of strong supporters of the Tea Party political movement going to the polls – two groups on which Rick Santorum has focused his insurgent campaign.

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that very conservative voters are turning out at about 10 percentage points higher than their usual share of GOP primary voters so far this year. And nearly half of Louisiana primary voters identify themselves as strong Tea Party supporters, roughly 15 points more than average in previous primary and caucus states where exit polls have been conducted this year.

At fewer than six in 10 voters, evangelicals, another strong Santorum group, are less dominant than in most other Southern states to have voted so far.  But religiously inspired voting is running high nonetheless: Nearly two-thirds of Louisiana Republican primary voters say they go to church at least weekly, and more than that say it’s important to them to support a candidate who shares their religious beliefs, including more than a third who say that’s very important – about 15 points more than said so in Illinois earlier this week.

In another change from Illinois, Louisiana voters pick Santorum over Romney as the candidate whom they think best understands the problems of average Americans – a measure on which Romney prevailed last Tuesday. And while more than four in 10 in preliminary results from Louisiana pick Romney as best able to beat Barack Obama in November, that’s fewer than the number who’ve seen him as more electable in previous races – 51 percent, rising to 60 percent in Illinois.

Better for Romney is that defeating Obama is the most important attribute to a plurality of Louisiana voters, about four in 10 – roughly the same as in previous GOP contests combined.

With evangelicals in shorter supply compared with many other Southern states, Catholics are making up a greater share of the Louisiana GOP electorate – nearly four in 10 voters in preliminary exit poll results, compared with 27 percent in previous primaries. Helpfully to Santorum, these also are particularly religious Catholics, like himself. In Illinois last week, 52 percent of Catholic voters reported going to church at least once a week. In Louisiana, it’s more than six in 10.
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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2012, 05:37:23 pm »
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Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2012, 05:42:38 pm »
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Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

Have you heard of the Cajuns?
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Alcon
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« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2012, 05:43:47 pm »
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Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).  A 60% evangelical electorate is not unexpected news, and doesn't challenge the primary polls we've seen so far.
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« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2012, 05:44:30 pm »
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Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

Read about why types of Roman Catholics are turning out. Evangelicals might not make up as much of the vote because of the amount of Catholics and it's religious Catholics turning out.

Also, I doubt Tea Partiers are as conservative in IL as they are in LA.

By the way, way to ignore how the amount of people saying they're "very conservative" might be record breaking. Not good for Mitt.
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