Louisiana primary chat
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Author Topic: Louisiana primary chat  (Read 8971 times)
Torie
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« on: March 24, 2012, 01:57:48 PM »

Well since no one else has done it that I can see, I guess I will so that we can all savor Rick's triumph in Louisiana together.

Actually, I am starting it, because this dude seems to be leaking the exit poll, or pulling numbers from his butt, or something. I really have no idea, nor do I know who he is. Anyway, it seemed to me that this kind of spam or whatever, should be put in the chat thread. Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2012, 02:00:34 PM »

Santorum's numbers seem low, and Mitten's numbers seem high.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2012, 02:02:57 PM »

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2012, 02:06:33 PM »

Exit polling six hours before the end of actual voting?
Ok.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2012, 02:08:05 PM »

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2012, 02:09:06 PM »

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

If they are exit polls, that's good news for Santorum as he does his worst in the earliest exit polls.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2012, 02:12:34 PM »

Exit polling six hours before the end of actual voting?
Ok.

Hey px, to keep yourself out of trouble for a few minutes, why don't you read the guy's "open letter" letter to Rick?  I mean, if you think the Mittbots around here are insufferable ... Tongue

Here's a lagniappe for you just to wet your appetite:

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Matthew
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2012, 02:18:35 PM »

Louisiana will be a protest vote of the conservative base. Nothing more or less...Likely will give Santorum 3-5 more delegates then Romney.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2012, 02:23:17 PM »

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

If they are exit polls, that's good news for Santorum as he does his worst in the earliest exit polls.

Yeah, that is very true. I wonder why that is...olds? If Santorum is leading by 9 early, he should win by close to 15 I would think.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2012, 02:24:34 PM »

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2012, 02:26:45 PM »

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

I'll wait for real exit polls, thanks. Tongue
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2012, 02:28:51 PM »

Does anyone know what time the polls close?
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Matthew
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2012, 02:35:17 PM »

Does anyone know what time the polls close?

8pm cdt
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2012, 02:38:05 PM »

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

I'll wait for real exit polls, thanks. Tongue

Reading his text give me the impression that he is running his own exit poll. I think maybe he might need to switch his medications. You know, they try one, and if it doesn't work, they switch to another, and when they find the one that works - voila you can then, and only then, diagnose just what subspecies of psychosis someone has. And I am not making this up - that is actually how the skrinks diagnose mental illness.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2012, 02:41:47 PM »

I posted a link to this guy's poll during IL. He got it wrong.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2012, 03:12:36 PM »

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  Tongue

Indeed.  Brings tears to my eyes.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2012, 04:33:22 PM »

We'll still be in #atlasforum tonight; LA is boring so don't come for that, come for la communidad!
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2012, 05:04:27 PM »

Etch a sketch is no big deal to LA primary voters. No surprise really.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2012, 05:14:10 PM »

Guys, as we've been over countless times, the media itself doesn't get the exit polls until 5pm Eastern, so any supposed leaks before that are certainly fake.

I'm off to see if there are any stories yet on the real exit polls...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2012, 05:16:58 PM »

News story on the actual exit polls:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/exit-poll-of-la-gop-presidential-voters-say-few-consider-etch-a-sketch-flap-important/2012/03/24/gIQANZyQYS_story.html

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2012, 05:19:33 PM »

More exits:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/

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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2012, 05:37:23 PM »

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2012, 05:42:38 PM »

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

Have you heard of the Cajuns?
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Alcon
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« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2012, 05:43:47 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2012, 05:45:33 PM by Alcon »

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).  A 60% evangelical electorate is not unexpected news, and doesn't challenge the primary polls we've seen so far.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2012, 05:44:30 PM »

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

Read about why types of Roman Catholics are turning out. Evangelicals might not make up as much of the vote because of the amount of Catholics and it's religious Catholics turning out.

Also, I doubt Tea Partiers are as conservative in IL as they are in LA.

By the way, way to ignore how the amount of people saying they're "very conservative" might be record breaking. Not good for Mitt.
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