Louisiana primary chat

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's up with Ron Paul at St. Bernard? He gets 15% there, almost three times his state numbers.

Area was totally leveled by the hurricane, for what that's worth. Not sure what's happened since.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  

That guy had a real scoop, no kidding!

[Alcon]

Orleans finally starts to come in. Romney up there 47%-24%, but not a ton of votes.

Way too few to be early votes plus 18% of the actual precincts, I think.  Watch second-wave ballots closely here.  Granted, it'd have to be an unusually big swing for Santorum to win the parish.

[RI]

CNN has Santorum at 50% now.

[cinyc]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

[RI]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

[Colbert]

WTF ON CNN? It's 3 hour past midnight and  tv show elecions is just began! :/

[Sam Spade]

Given past history, I am really surprised that anyone thought Mitt would get over 30%.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wow, St. Martin Parish is actually noncontiguous.

From wiki:

The parish is split into two noncontiguous parts because of a surveying error dating to 1868, when Iberia Parish was created by the Louisiana Legislature. St. Martin has the highest percentage of French-speaking residents of any county or parish in the United States.

[cinyc]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

The precinct level results in La Salle are... somewhat expected.  Obama won one precinct 41-1.  He received zero votes in a whole bunch of other precincts.

[RI]

Santorum now up by 17% in Caddo Parish. lolswing.

[Sam Spade]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

The precinct level results in La Salle are... somewhat expected.  Obama won one precinct 41-1.  He received zero votes in a whole bunch of other precincts.

In the South, especially the rural South, there are black precincts and there are white precincts.  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Orleans finally starts to come in. Romney up there 47%-24%, but not a ton of votes.

Way too few to be early votes plus 18% of the actual precincts, I think.  Watch second-wave ballots closely here.  Granted, it'd have to be an unusually big swing for Santorum to win the parish.

Most of what's reported in Orleans so far are the heavily-black precincts. It's no surprise that there are few Republican primary voters.

[argentarius]

I like one of the CNN exit poll numbers, it has the same numbers as results, vote by age 18-29:8% (like Paul and that's his age group), 30-44 17% (like Newt), 45-64 49% (Santorum), 26% 65+ (like Mitt, and that's where he does well.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

The precinct level results in La Salle are... somewhat expected.  Obama won one precinct 41-1.  He received zero votes in a whole bunch of other precincts.

In the South, especially the rural South, there are black precincts and there are white precincts.  

True enough but aren't African-Americans more scattered across Louisiana relative to the rest of the Deep South?

[Alcon]

Romney is now under 30% in Caddo Parish (Shreveport), which he won solidly in early votes.

Still nothing from Jefferson and only early votes from the GOP parts of Orleans.

[Alcon]

41% of Orleans now in.  No swing toward Santorum to speak of.  Safe Romney.

[ilikeverin]

What's up with Ron Paul at St. Bernard? He gets 15% there, almost three times his state numbers.

Area was totally leveled by the hurricane, for what that's worth. Not sure what's happened since.

Depressing, that.  About 1,000 votes in the completely noncompetitive 2000 primaries.  Now what?  Shy of 700?  Yikes.

41% of Orleans now in.  No swing toward Santorum to speak of.  Safe Romney.

I don't see any way Romney will get less than 25% of the statewide vote.

[Alcon]

Romney would have to do poorly in Jefferson Parish to fall under 25% at this point, although even with his Orleans landslide half-in, he's still at 26%.

[Indy Texas]

And on the Dem side, Obama is doing spectacularly bad in northern LA. He lost LaSalle Parish and has won  others with 30-40% of the vote.

[Sam Spade]

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

The precinct level results in La Salle are... somewhat expected.  Obama won one precinct 41-1.  He received zero votes in a whole bunch of other precincts.

In the South, especially the rural South, there are black precincts and there are white precincts.  

True enough but aren't African-Americans more scattered across Louisiana relative to the rest of the Deep South?

The blacks in LaSalle are packed into two precincts in Ward 10.  There may be a few blacks in other places in LaSalle, maybe like 10 or so, and they may well still be slaves, or at best sharecroppers, for all I know.

[RI]

Finally have some votes in from Jefferson Parish. Santorum up 48-29.

[Alcon]

Jefferson is 48%-29% Santorum with 11% in.  Terrible performance for Romney, especially if he falls in later ballots.  It's no longer a near-sure thing he'll break 25%, although it's quite probable.

Santorum hovering around 50% again.

Edit: Bacon King would like to remind everyone that East Bank and West Bank Jefferson Parish are very different places, so hang tight for new ballots.

[RI]

One thing is for sure: Gingrich is completely dead. And buried. And rotting.

[adrac]

C'mon Santorum.
You can break 50%.
I've got one point riding on this.