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Author Topic: Louisiana primary chat  (Read 4269 times)
Indy Texas
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« Reply #150 on: March 24, 2012, 09:42:37 pm »
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The blacks in LaSalle are packed into two precincts in Ward 10.  There may be a few blacks in other places in LaSalle, maybe like 10 or so, and they may well still be slaves, or at best sharecroppers, for all I know.

They prefer the term "interns" in order to comply with state labor laws.
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« Reply #151 on: March 24, 2012, 09:45:34 pm »
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BaconKing reports that Jefferson Parish precincts are disproportionately favorable to Santorum, and the end result should be significantly closer.

Now 81% reporting, with Jefferson at 11% and Orleans at 41%.  Santorum leads 50%-26%.

Hard to see Romney falling below 25% or Santorum breaking 50%.  Effectively impossible if BK is right about the precincts, which I'm sure he is.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #152 on: March 24, 2012, 09:46:52 pm »
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Jefferson is 48%-29% Santorum with 11% in.  Terrible performance for Romney, especially if he falls in later ballots.  It's no longer a near-sure thing he'll break 25%, although it's quite probable.

Keep in mind, though, Romney just needs to do better than 25% to keep his head above water.  It would take an epic fail for him to be doing worse than that in the Jefferson/Orleans that's left.  An entertainingly epic fail, but an epic fail nonetheless.
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« Reply #153 on: March 24, 2012, 09:48:03 pm »
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Delegates are going to be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 10. Really unlikely that that changes at this point.
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« Reply #154 on: March 24, 2012, 09:50:21 pm »
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Sign of how irrelevant this win probably is:  Pretty much every media outlet mentions Romney's high delegate lead in their headline captions.
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J. J.
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« Reply #155 on: March 24, 2012, 09:55:34 pm »
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Protestant (57%): Santorum +23%
Catholic (37%): Santorum +11%

Santorum is cleaning up in the north.  It's closer in the Cajun areas, but he's still winning.

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J. J.

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« Reply #156 on: March 24, 2012, 09:56:24 pm »
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Santorum is winning???
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« Reply #157 on: March 24, 2012, 09:58:03 pm »
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22% more of Jefferson in (to 33%) and Santorum actually did slightly better in these new ballots.  It's possible that's just the remainders of Santorum's stronghold areas coming in, though.

Also up to 67% reporting in Orleans.  A slightly better batch for Santorum this time, but Romney still won it by about 10 points.
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« Reply #158 on: March 24, 2012, 10:00:01 pm »
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Sign of how irrelevant this win probably is:  Pretty much every media outlet mentions Romney's high delegate lead in their headline captions.

Ultimately I also think it is irrelevant but you don't think this will be a big topic on the various Sunday junkets?  I envision all the round tables questioning Romney's strength and base of support. etc.  
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« Reply #159 on: March 24, 2012, 10:00:41 pm »
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Jefferson up to 48% reported and the new batch was better for Romney; the parish tightens to 46%-30% Santorum.

Santorum falls just a bit below 49.5% statewide.

Edit: And then a small Jefferson bump for Santorum.

88% reporting.
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J. J.
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« Reply #160 on: March 24, 2012, 10:01:31 pm »
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Santorum is winning???

Yes, for the first time, in six weeks, Santorum has a day where he gains delegates over Romney.
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J. J.

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"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
realisticidealist
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« Reply #161 on: March 24, 2012, 10:03:20 pm »
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Santorum finished at 50.5% in Caddo Parish.
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« Reply #162 on: March 24, 2012, 10:04:40 pm »
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Congratulations to Santorum - an expected victory but impressive. Too bad for him that it hardly awards any actual delegates.

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« Reply #163 on: March 24, 2012, 10:06:07 pm »
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Jefferson is 89% reporting, tightening to Santorum 45%-32% as he "only" wins new ballots by 11 points.

Romney isn't going to fall under 25%.  Santorum is very unlikely to hit 50%.

94% reporting.

Edit: And then 97% reporting, with not much change.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #164 on: March 24, 2012, 10:07:45 pm »
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I expected Gingrich to perform better upstate. He hasn't been able to push Santorum below 40% anywhere.
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« Reply #165 on: March 24, 2012, 10:32:41 pm »
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Santorum is winning???

Yes, for the first time, in six weeks, Santorum has a day where he gains delegates over Romney.


wathever happen, romney will not beat obama. All this money for nothing...
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« Reply #166 on: March 24, 2012, 10:35:57 pm »
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Louisiana county parish Tongue map:

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Colbert
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« Reply #167 on: March 24, 2012, 10:36:54 pm »
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What is an "unplegged RNC" Huh
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #168 on: March 24, 2012, 10:40:49 pm »
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Wolfe beat Obama in 3 parishes.
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« Reply #169 on: March 24, 2012, 10:52:50 pm »
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Wolfe beat Obama in 3 parishes.

map?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #170 on: March 24, 2012, 11:00:11 pm »
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Wolfe won La Salle, Grant, and Cameron.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #171 on: March 24, 2012, 11:03:24 pm »
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LOL, the most racist counties.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #172 on: March 24, 2012, 11:03:38 pm »
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Here is the Democratic race so far:

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Sibboleth
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« Reply #173 on: March 24, 2012, 11:04:57 pm »
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The heart of David Duke country and that place that voted for Landrieu while giving Obama 16%. Though perhaps its interesting that they're still voting in Democratic primaries.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #174 on: March 24, 2012, 11:10:58 pm »
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The heart of David Duke country and that place that voted for Landrieu while giving Obama 16%. Though perhaps its interesting that they're still voting in Democratic primaries.

Well, LA is a closed primary and they did vote for Edwards in 2008 even though he had already dropped out.
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