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Author Topic: Louisiana primary chat  (Read 5581 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #175 on: March 24, 2012, 11:37:14 pm »
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Obama got more votes than Santorum, in LOUISIANA, and being uncontested ?

WTF ?
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RBH
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« Reply #176 on: March 24, 2012, 11:46:40 pm »
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Obama got more votes than Santorum, in LOUISIANA, and being uncontested ?

WTF ?

Closed primary. Louisiana has 1.4M registered Dems and 775K registered Republicans.

And the 3 parishes Obama lost all went for McCain with over 80% in 2008
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« Reply #177 on: March 24, 2012, 11:48:29 pm »
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LA Dixiecrats haven't changed their registration like in other states, because of the jungle primary.
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« Reply #178 on: March 25, 2012, 12:27:24 am »
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What is an "unplegged RNC" Huh
Some of high ranking members of the Republican National Committee in some states get to choose who they want to support, not based on the vote of their state.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2012, 01:13:04 am by shua, gm »Logged
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« Reply #179 on: March 25, 2012, 12:47:46 am »
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What a slaughter. I'm a little surprised by the margin. Late deciders came in huge for Santorum.

Also, it's cool that John Wolfe did so well. He seems like a solid dude. Of course, it's a shame that most of the people who voted for him were probably anything but left-wing (like he very much is)...
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« Reply #180 on: March 25, 2012, 01:05:09 am »
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lol Louisiana
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« Reply #181 on: March 25, 2012, 01:49:03 am »
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Final margin is 22 points, Santorum did 8% better than the polling average predicted.
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« Reply #182 on: March 25, 2012, 01:51:19 am »
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Here is the Democratic race so far:



Nice!
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« Reply #183 on: March 25, 2012, 01:59:52 am »
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three additions

solid 90+ for Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio. If other unopposed primaries are included
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« Reply #184 on: March 25, 2012, 02:49:24 am »
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If my precinct allocation is correct, Obama placed fourth in the City of Jena, receiving just over 10% of the vote:

Wolfe 13
Ely 4
Richardson 4
Obama 3

In the National Armory precinct, the black area just went of Jena, Obama received 41 of 42 votes, or 98% of the vote.  Excluding this black precinct, Obama also placed last in LaSalle Parish, with Wolfe receiving 81 votes, Ely 43, Richardson 27, and Obama 21, or 12% of the Democratic vote.

Two-thirds of Obama's vote in Lasalle County came from the National Armory precinct, compared to less than 1% of the votes for the other candidates.  The National Armory precinct cast 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary overall, and cast only 2% of votes in the Republican primary.

Deep South precinct results are a thing of horror.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2012, 03:00:32 am by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #185 on: March 25, 2012, 08:20:19 am »
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Here is the Democratic race so far:



Does Obama lose many additional counties or parishes when his vote is compared to the combined totals of all non-Obama candidates?
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« Reply #186 on: March 25, 2012, 08:33:59 am »
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Here is the Democratic race so far:



Nice!

Yeah, thanks!  The shading is what I was curious about.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #187 on: March 25, 2012, 09:10:52 am »
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Obama got more votes than Santorum, in LOUISIANA, and being uncontested ?

WTF ?

Closed primary. Louisiana has 1.4M registered Dems and 775K registered Republicans.

And the 3 parishes Obama lost all went for McCain with over 80% in 2008

There were also elections for party officials on the ballot, so it wasn't completely pointless for Democrats to go vote.
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J. J.
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« Reply #188 on: March 25, 2012, 09:43:50 am »
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What a slaughter. I'm a little surprised by the margin. Late deciders came in huge for Santorum.

Also, it's cool that John Wolfe did so well. He seems like a solid dude. Of course, it's a shame that most of the people who voted for him were probably anything but left-wing (like he very much is)...

I was predicting a 15 point win, and I was on high side of predictions.

It is being spun, even in PA, as meaningless, however.  The local news ran the story at 11:12 PM, and noted the lead Romney had in delegates.  The story ran after the the teaser weather segment.
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Torie
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« Reply #189 on: March 25, 2012, 09:54:58 am »
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Mittens did get drubbed. He ran about 5% below what the Sean Trende demographic regression analysis predicted. If replicated for the balance of the campaign, the odds suddenly shoot up to maybe 50-50 that the race will not be decided until the convention. That to me is the big story of this otherwise near irrelevant primary. Delegate wise, Mittens dodged a bullet by getting two points over the 25% threshold to get any delegates, so his vote falloff cost him a grand total of one delegate (7 delegates out of 20 rather than eight).

So what is the problem?  One problem might be that the regression analysis could not handle Cajun white Catholics because they just are not like white Catholics in some concentration elsewhere, and the education factor just was not enough to pick up the difference. If that is the problem, Mittens does not need to worry much. Or was it etch a sketch? Late deciders did vote about 4 points more for Santorum, and about 20% of the voters claimed it was an important factor in their vote, and 39% a factor. Whether that was an excuse for why one voted the way they did, or not as much a factor as folks said, one doesn't know. But it could have been.

Here is an interesting graphic from the CNN poll:



60% of the Newt voters say Romney is their second choice. Yes, Newt got the percentage the polls predicted, but maybe some of the Romney vote peeled off to Newt over etch a sketch. Maybe. In any event, it may well not be in Santorum's interest for Newt to drop out now, if this break in Newt's support is in any way representative of his remaining support elsewhere.

Anyway, I hope Sean Trende writes an article on all of this. I would be interested in his take of course. I mean he knows the coefficients of his equation, and I don't.

Finally, despite that rather cruel vignette I put up making fun of some Pub voters in Shreveport, the Pub Louisiana voters are a remarkably educated group, with only 17% not having gone to college, and 20% having had post graduate study.  It seems that Louisiana is remarkably similar to Cambridge, Massachusetts or something. Smiley

Or maybe their memories are faulty. It is a reminder that maybe folks are not totally forthcoming about either themselves, or the actual reasons they voted for someone, and just pick a reason from the list they are given that seems most "acceptable" or politically correct.



« Last Edit: March 25, 2012, 10:10:12 am by Torie »Logged

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