Louisiana primary chat

[J. J.]

Santorum's numbers seem low, and Mitten's numbers seem high.

[J. J.]

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

[J. J.]

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

[J. J.]

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).

I think we discussed the different demographics.  That might end up making this race closer.

[J. J.]

By the way, way to ignore how the amount of people saying they're "very conservative" might be record breaking. Not good for Mitt.

No, I'm saying that Santorum's strongest support is from Evangelicals.  There are not as many as in other southern states, so that was a weakness Santorum.

Romney has done reasonably well with "very conservative" voters, at least better than with Evangelicals.  Nobody is talking about a Romney upset, but possibly a closer race than we thought.

[J. J.]

Yes, the Cajun aspect may not a be a demographic that is picked up very well by the Sean Trende model perhaps, and it will be interesting to see how much they vote like Evangelicals versus white Catholics that are in some concentration elsewhere. The best guess I would think is somewhere in-between. The Trende model would give Mittens about 33%-34% of the vote in LA, and Mittens if the model is right won't get much higher than that with Newt pulling 15% of the vote or so, and if Cajuns are labeled "non-Evangelical," it might be a tad lower, although I suspect not much, since I would guess their educational level is rather low and that would be picked up in the model.

Moreover, outside the urban zones, the Cajun vote in the rural areas is just not that large of the share of the pie anyway, and in LA the Cajun area urban zones go their own way. LA is a very class oriented state under the surface.

Anyway, this is what I was musing about when I came up with my prediction guess, when I ended up at 32% for Mittens.

I gave it 30% Mitten, 45% Rick, in my prediction.  I'm still expecting double digits, but it might be lower.

[J. J.]

LOL, I like how J.J. ignores the numerous demographic numbers in that post that are good news for Santorum and focuses on the one that would be good news for Romney if you know absolutely nothing about Louisiana.

We've been talking about the demographic difference for a while.  This one might be closer than we thought.

[J. J.]

J. J., are you arguing anything besides "Louisiana might be closer because the demographics are different than the rest of the South"?  I'm fine with that argument, with two caveats:

1. There's no reason to believe that the polls were expecting the wrong demographics.

2. The exit polls show demographics that are just fine for Santorum, relative to expectations.  The exit polls give us no reason to believe the polls had the wrong demographics, and the polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout.

In the second case, I think you are making an assumption that LA Catholics behave more like Evangelicals.  I am not sure that is correct.

[J. J.]

Exits look good for Santorum, about 46/28

[J. J.]

Protestant (57%): Santorum +23%
Catholic (37%): Santorum +11%

Santorum is cleaning up in the north.  It's closer in the Cajun areas, but he's still winning.

[J. J.]

Santorum is winning???

Yes, for the first time, in six weeks, Santorum has a day where he gains delegates over Romney.

[J. J.]

What a slaughter. I'm a little surprised by the margin. Late deciders came in huge for Santorum.

Also, it's cool that John Wolfe did so well. He seems like a solid dude. Of course, it's a shame that most of the people who voted for him were probably anything but left-wing (like he very much is)...

I was predicting a 15 point win, and I was on high side of predictions.

It is being spun, even in PA, as meaningless, however.  The local news ran the story at 11:12 PM, and noted the lead Romney had in delegates.  The story ran after the the teaser weather segment.