Louisiana primary chat

[Alcon]

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).  A 60% evangelical electorate is not unexpected news, and doesn't challenge the primary polls we've seen so far.

[Alcon]

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).

I think we discussed the different demographics.  That might end up making this race closer.

...?

[Alcon]

It's not like the Louisiana polling has been assuming a vastly more evangelical electorate or something.

[Alcon]

J. J., are you arguing anything besides "Louisiana might be closer because the demographics are different than the rest of the South"?  I'm fine with that argument, with two caveats:

1. There's no reason to believe that the polls were expecting the wrong demographics.

2. The exit polls show demographics that are just fine for Santorum, relative to expectations.  The exit polls give us no reason to believe the polls had the wrong demographics, and the polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout.

So, if you're willing to make those two concessions, we're on the same page.  Of course, this same argument could apply to most every state with wonky demographics in most every election, and doesn't appear any likelier than it did before we saw the exit polls.

It could be closer than we thought, sure...but is there reason to believe, from the exit polls, it's any likelier to be?  Nope...

[Alcon]

J. J., are you arguing anything besides "Louisiana might be closer because the demographics are different than the rest of the South"?  I'm fine with that argument, with two caveats:

1. There's no reason to believe that the polls were expecting the wrong demographics.

2. The exit polls show demographics that are just fine for Santorum, relative to expectations.  The exit polls give us no reason to believe the polls had the wrong demographics, and the polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout.

In the second case, I think you are making an assumption that LA Catholics behave more like Evangelicals.  I am not sure that is correct.

No, I'm not making that assumption.  I explicitly said that "polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout."  That would include Romney performing better among Catholics, which you seem to be suggesting is more probable than assumed, based on Catholics in other states.  There is nothing to suggest the electorate is atypical, so there is nothing to suggest that the polls have systemically messed up, or sampled the wrong sort of Catholic, or something.  Is it possible?  Yes.  Do we have any indications that this is happening?  No.  Did the exit polls give us any reason to assume it's true?  No.

[Alcon]

Exit poll is Santorum +19 (Santorum 47%, Romney 28%, Gingrich 16%)

edit: damn lief

[Alcon]

Protestant (57%): Santorum +23%
Catholic (37%): Santorum +11%

Born-again (55%): Santorum +33%
Not born-again (45%): Romney +1%

Two-way race:
Santorum 59%
Romney 36%
Wouldn't have voted 4%

Amusingly, a handful of voters would have changed their Romney/Santorum preferences if Gingrich wasn't on the ballot.

[Alcon]

It looks like our first returns will be early voting totals.  So far, Romney leads Iberville Parish and Santorum leads a handful of others.  Even in early voting, Gingrich doesn't appear to be much of a factor.

[Alcon]

I'm starting to see signs of meaningful, although very variable, swings toward Santorum in second-wave ballots -- everything from no swing to massive, 45-point swings.

[Alcon]

Caddo was a 23-point swing from early votes.

[Alcon]

So far, among counties that have reported second-wave ballots, the overall swing is Santorum +13.3%, Romney -7.5%, with Gingrich also significantly down.

[Alcon]

With 28% reporting, Caddo flips to strong Santorum.  Early Caddo ballots were 40%-32% Romney.  New Caddo ballots are 48%-31% Santorum.

Romney's lead in Bienville is almost certainly toast.  Nothing from Jefferson or Orleans.

[Alcon]

Although urban areas are now significantly underreported, Romney is teetering dangerously close to 25%.

[Alcon]

Orleans finally starts to come in. Romney up there 47%-24%, but not a ton of votes.

Way too few to be early votes plus 18% of the actual precincts, I think.  Watch second-wave ballots closely here.  Granted, it'd have to be an unusually big swing for Santorum to win the parish.

[Alcon]

Romney is now under 30% in Caddo Parish (Shreveport), which he won solidly in early votes.

Still nothing from Jefferson and only early votes from the GOP parts of Orleans.

[Alcon]

41% of Orleans now in.  No swing toward Santorum to speak of.  Safe Romney.

[Alcon]

Romney would have to do poorly in Jefferson Parish to fall under 25% at this point, although even with his Orleans landslide half-in, he's still at 26%.

[Alcon]

Jefferson is 48%-29% Santorum with 11% in.  Terrible performance for Romney, especially if he falls in later ballots.  It's no longer a near-sure thing he'll break 25%, although it's quite probable.

Santorum hovering around 50% again.

Edit: Bacon King would like to remind everyone that East Bank and West Bank Jefferson Parish are very different places, so hang tight for new ballots.

[Alcon]

BaconKing reports that Jefferson Parish precincts are disproportionately favorable to Santorum, and the end result should be significantly closer.

Now 81% reporting, with Jefferson at 11% and Orleans at 41%.  Santorum leads 50%-26%.

Hard to see Romney falling below 25% or Santorum breaking 50%.  Effectively impossible if BK is right about the precincts, which I'm sure he is.

[Alcon]

Sign of how irrelevant this win probably is:  Pretty much every media outlet mentions Romney's high delegate lead in their headline captions.

[Alcon]

22% more of Jefferson in (to 33%) and Santorum actually did slightly better in these new ballots.  It's possible that's just the remainders of Santorum's stronghold areas coming in, though.

Also up to 67% reporting in Orleans.  A slightly better batch for Santorum this time, but Romney still won it by about 10 points.

[Alcon]

Jefferson up to 48% reported and the new batch was better for Romney; the parish tightens to 46%-30% Santorum.

Santorum falls just a bit below 49.5% statewide.

Edit: And then a small Jefferson bump for Santorum.

88% reporting.

[Alcon]

Jefferson is 89% reporting, tightening to Santorum 45%-32% as he "only" wins new ballots by 11 points.

Romney isn't going to fall under 25%.  Santorum is very unlikely to hit 50%.

94% reporting.

Edit: And then 97% reporting, with not much change.

[Alcon]

Louisiana county parish map:

[Alcon]

If my precinct allocation is correct, Obama placed fourth in the City of Jena, receiving just over 10% of the vote:

Wolfe 13
Ely 4
Richardson 4
Obama 3

In the National Armory precinct, the black area just went of Jena, Obama received 41 of 42 votes, or 98% of the vote.  Excluding this black precinct, Obama also placed last in LaSalle Parish, with Wolfe receiving 81 votes, Ely 43, Richardson 27, and Obama 21, or 12% of the Democratic vote.

Two-thirds of Obama's vote in Lasalle County came from the National Armory precinct, compared to less than 1% of the votes for the other candidates.  The National Armory precinct cast 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary overall, and cast only 2% of votes in the Republican primary.

Deep South precinct results are a thing of horror.