Will Obama win Virginia? If he doesn't, he will lose re-election

[ucscgaldamez]

The popular vote will likely be +/- 2 million difference between Obama and Romney.

I feel that it is likely for Obama to win narrowly the states of Iowa, Nevada, NM, CO, WI, and PA.

However, I think he will lose New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, NC and Indiana.

The race will come down to Virginia. We may see an election in which Romney wins by 270-268. If Obama wins re-election with a Virginia win, it will be 281-257.

Will 2012 be a 270-268 Romney win or a 281-257 Obama win?

I really do believe it will be this close.

[ucscgaldamez]

For Obama to win, black turnout has to above 20%?

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I feel that it is likely for Obama to win narrowly the states of Iowa, Nevada, NM, CO, WI, and PA.

However, I think he will lose New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, NC and Indiana.

I really do believe it will be this close.

Wait, what? Narrowly winning NM and PA and losing NH?

[SmugDealer]

Obama will probably win Virginia, because he will probably win the popular vote, and he will probably stay President.

However, even without Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida he can still win by  maintaining the rest of his '08 states.

The following map comes out to an Obama win of 273-265

Though I really doubt he'll even do this poorly. If there's anyone who could help Obama keep the south, it's Mitt Romney.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

I think Obama will win Virginia (51%-48% give or take a point). NOVA has become to powerful for repubs to overcome...


I do think Mittens will win NC, FL, NH, OH and IA. Still not enough to beat Obama.

[The Mikado]

Obama needs to win one of: FL, OH, VA.  It's pretty much impossible for him to win without one of those three, but on the other hand, if he carries any one of those three, Romney's electoral math starts looking pretty dire.  This has been the case this whole election, both Obama and Romney know this.

[5280/East California]

He could lose CO, and still win with VA. If Romney wins VA, then Obama loses.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Given that Romney's style appeals slightly more to white-collar Virginia than blue-collar Ohio, I'd say that Obama will do slightly better in the Buckeye State unless he makes a second "guns and religion" gaffe (that probably cost him SW PA in 2008). A default Romney victory is probably an exact copy of the 2000 map, with Obama winning Colorado, then Ohio, then Nevada, then Virginia.

[Nagas]

272-266.

Obama doesn't even need Virginia.

[Senator Snowstalker]

If it's Romney, he'll flip New Hampshire before any other state except IN (maybe NC/FL). Obama does probably need at least one of the Big 3 swing states to win.

[Nagas]

If it's Romney, he'll flip New Hampshire before any other state except IN (maybe NC/FL). Obama does probably need at least one of the Big 3 swing states to win.

Obama is polling ahead in New Hampshire.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I'm not saying Romney will win NH, I'm saying that if he does, he'll win it before OH or VA.

[Senator Ben]

I expect Obama to win Virginia, again.

[Torie]

I'm not saying Romney will win NH, I'm saying that if he does, he'll win it before OH or VA.

Perfect!

[The Mikado]

Out of the Big Three, I'd put the likelihood of Obama carrying them at Ohio, then Virginia, then Florida.  Despite...everything, Democrats have a good chance in OH, and Mitt Romney's an absolutely abysmal fit with the Rust Belt.  On the other hand, the NoVA suburban types that defected en masse to the Democrats in 2006-2008 are exactly the type of swing voter that Romney could appeal to.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

If an Obama win depends on him winning Virginia, Romney picks Governor Bob McDonnell for VP and Romney wins Virginia and the election.

[GLPman]

If an Obama win depends on him winning Virginia, Romney picks Governor Bob McDonnell for VP and Romney wins Virginia and the election.

There's no evidence that McDonnell would greatly help Romney in Virginia, though.

I'm still not convinced that Virginia's swing towards Obama wasn't just in the wake of anti-GOP sentiments in the 2008 election season. Yes, I know NOVA is a huge factor here, but will it really hand Virginia to Obama again? It seems silly to cite polling as of right now since we're still only in March. For now, though, I'm going to say that Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states.

[perdedor]

If an Obama win depends on him winning Virginia, Romney picks Governor Bob McDonnell for VP and Romney wins Virginia and the election.

The data shows that to be a highly unlikely scenario.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-201203211013usnewsusnwr201203200320whisper2mar21,0,6521354.story

I think Obama wins Virginia relatively comfortable margin (>51%).

[ucscgaldamez]

I think it will be 50-49% Obama.

[memphis]

Given that Romney's style appeals slightly more to white-collar Virginia than blue-collar Ohio, I'd say that Obama will do slightly better in the Buckeye State unless he makes a second "guns and religion" gaffe (that probably cost him SW PA in 2008).

Unless you've somehow decided to remove Allegheny, Obama won SW PA.

[GM Griffin]

Obama's (or any Democratic candidate) "low" floor is 246. He would be very likely to pick up IA, CO, & NM before being in the range of picking up VA, giving him 266.

As someone mentioned earlier, in this year's political climate, it's very likely that Obama will be far more likely to win OH than VA and should have a larger margin of victory (or smaller margin of defeat) in OH than VA. Add Ohio's EVs and Obama wins with 284.

Obama doesn't need VA as he will have more than 270 sewn up by the time he's in the range of winning VA. Virginia was also an unexpected and unneeded win in 2008. When you take away the three upset states that Obama won (VA, NC, IN), he still has 326 that are far more attainable, and I'd argue about 20-25 more that could be new pick-ups in 2012.

[The Mikado]

VA wasn't unexpected, though it was definitely unneeded.  NC & IN were unexpected.

And as for the other part of your post, against Romney, VA probably goes Democratic before New Hampshire this year, IMO.  I'm a bit more generous to Obama with the Western swing states (I have NM and CO as Likely Democratic and NV as Leans Democratic), but even carrying all three of those, he loses without New Hampshire or one of the Big Three, and like I said earlier, I see VA as the second-most-likely of the Big Three.  Florida is a difficult state and really not the best fit for Obama.

[Torie]

Out of the Big Three, I'd put the likelihood of Obama carrying them at Ohio, then Virginia, then Florida.  Despite...everything, Democrats have a good chance in OH, and Mitt Romney's an absolutely abysmal fit with the Rust Belt.  On the other hand, the NoVA suburban types that defected en masse to the Democrats in 2006-2008 are exactly the type of swing voter that Romney could appeal to.

OH > VA is certainly a reasonable forecast, but OH is less black (and less Asian for that matter), and I think just less culturally friendly to Obama than VA overall. Who knows, but I put VA > OH for Obama, and think VA is a tossup. So ...