Out of the Big Three, I'd put the likelihood of Obama carrying them at Ohio, then Virginia, then Florida. Despite...everything, Democrats have a good chance in OH, and Mitt Romney's an absolutely abysmal fit with the Rust Belt. On the other hand, the NoVA suburban types that defected en masse to the Democrats in 2006-2008 are exactly the type of swing voter that Romney could appeal to.
OH > VA is certainly a reasonable forecast, but OH is less black (and less Asian for that matter), and I think just less culturally friendly to Obama than VA overall. Who knows, but I put VA > OH for Obama, and think VA is a tossup. So ...
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