Will Obama win Virginia? If he doesn't, he will lose re-election

[The Mikado]

Obama needs to win one of: FL, OH, VA.  It's pretty much impossible for him to win without one of those three, but on the other hand, if he carries any one of those three, Romney's electoral math starts looking pretty dire.  This has been the case this whole election, both Obama and Romney know this.

[The Mikado]

Out of the Big Three, I'd put the likelihood of Obama carrying them at Ohio, then Virginia, then Florida.  Despite...everything, Democrats have a good chance in OH, and Mitt Romney's an absolutely abysmal fit with the Rust Belt.  On the other hand, the NoVA suburban types that defected en masse to the Democrats in 2006-2008 are exactly the type of swing voter that Romney could appeal to.

[The Mikado]

VA wasn't unexpected, though it was definitely unneeded.  NC & IN were unexpected.

And as for the other part of your post, against Romney, VA probably goes Democratic before New Hampshire this year, IMO.  I'm a bit more generous to Obama with the Western swing states (I have NM and CO as Likely Democratic and NV as Leans Democratic), but even carrying all three of those, he loses without New Hampshire or one of the Big Three, and like I said earlier, I see VA as the second-most-likely of the Big Three.  Florida is a difficult state and really not the best fit for Obama.