If an Obama win depends on him winning Virginia, Romney picks Governor Bob McDonnell for VP and Romney wins Virginia and the election.
There's no evidence that McDonnell would greatly help Romney in Virginia, though.
I'm still not convinced that Virginia's swing towards Obama wasn't just in the wake of anti-GOP sentiments in the 2008 election season. Yes, I know NOVA is a huge factor here, but will it really hand Virginia to Obama again? It seems silly to cite polling as of right now since we're still only in March. For now, though, I'm going to say that Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states.