Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,088
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: March 27, 2012, 10:54:02 PM » |
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« edited: March 27, 2012, 10:55:54 PM by Strange Things Are Happening to Me »
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Obama's (or any Democratic candidate) "low" floor is 246. He would be very likely to pick up IA, CO, & NM before being in the range of picking up VA, giving him 266.
As someone mentioned earlier, in this year's political climate, it's very likely that Obama will be far more likely to win OH than VA and should have a larger margin of victory (or smaller margin of defeat) in OH than VA. Add Ohio's EVs and Obama wins with 284.
Obama doesn't need VA as he will have more than 270 sewn up by the time he's in the range of winning VA. Virginia was also an unexpected and unneeded win in 2008. When you take away the three upset states that Obama won (VA, NC, IN), he still has 326 that are far more attainable, and I'd argue about 20-25 more that could be new pick-ups in 2012.
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