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| | |-+  When will Santorum finally throw in the towel?
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Question: When will Santorum finally throw in the towel?
After April 3rd (if he loses WI)   -0 (0%)
After April 22nd (if he loses PA)   -17 (31.5%)
After one of the pre-TX May primaries   -1 (1.9%)
After May 29th (if he loses TX)   -11 (20.4%)
After the June primaries   -6 (11.1%)
After the primaries, before the convention   -10 (18.5%)
During the convention   -5 (9.3%)
He'll win the nomination.   -4 (7.4%)
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Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: When will Santorum finally throw in the towel?  (Read 813 times)
Snowstalker
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« on: March 26, 2012, 07:30:34 pm »
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We all agree it's when, not if. We need to bet on that when.

Also, is it safe to assume that, despite what he's claimed, he will line up behind Mitt?

I predict that he drops out after Romney narrowly carries Texas.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2012, 07:34:59 pm »
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Probably after Utah. I don't think he'll draw it out to the convention. He can't hate Romney that much. After all, he did endorse him in 2008.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2012, 08:25:39 pm »
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Probably after Utah. I don't think he'll draw it out to the convention. He can't hate Romney that much. After all, he did endorse him in 2008.

Will Rick do that, if Mittens is short of an absolute majority due to 1) supers being out there who have not committed quite yet by the end of June, and 2) he deducts Mittens delegates from the Florida and AZ delegations on the theory that both will be made proportional?  I ask, because while the odds of Mittens falling short without the cutbacks that seem highly improbable, might be 90%, with the deducts it might be as low as 60%-70%, as a wild guess (I want to see how Wisconsin tracks the Sean Trende model after the fall-off in LA before upping the odds).
« Last Edit: March 26, 2012, 08:33:51 pm by Torie »Logged

Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2012, 08:31:14 pm »
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It would be helpful to know the correct date of the primary in your own state (it's not April 22nd).
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2012, 08:32:09 pm »
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Yes it is. Check the Atlas.
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R2D2
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2012, 08:35:20 pm »
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Option 4 or 6.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2012, 08:42:28 pm »
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4 or 5.
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7.35, 3.65

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2012, 09:06:40 pm »
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The media will declare Romney the winner on June 5th when Romney crosses 1144 according to their counts. But I have a feeling Santorum will hold on to the hope that he can pull votes away from Romney at the conventions and via contesting AZ and FL. So he will wait to see how that all works out
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2012, 09:14:57 pm »
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Yes it is. Check the Atlas.
Actually, it's not. Wink The 22nd falls on a Sunday. It's on the 24th.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2012, 09:15:46 pm »
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...it said the 22nd on the Atlas.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2012, 09:58:06 pm »
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Yes it is. Check the Atlas.

Um. The primary is April 24th. I'm not arguing about this.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2012, 10:02:25 pm »
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It'd be hilarious if Romney falls just short of a majority before Utah, and Santorum makes a desperate attempt to win, perhaps by converting to Mormonism and accusing Romney of not being a true Mormon.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2012, 10:06:01 pm »
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...it said the 22nd on the Atlas.
Atlas isn't always 100% correct.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
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Ernest
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2012, 10:42:07 pm »
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Quite possibly not until after his last chance to gain pledged delegates, the Nebraska State Republican Convention which is tentatively scheduled for Bastille Day.  Even if it doesn't affect his chance at being nominated, it may make a difference on the platform.

In any case, Santorum will not throw in his towel before Gingrich and Paul have.  Santorum needs to make certain he is in charge of the #2 spot on the delegate count so as to be able to take advantage of the mess that would result if Romney should have to pull out unexpectedly for reasons unforeseeable.
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Winfield
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« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2012, 11:38:11 pm »
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As soon as he begins to replace his arrogance and delusion with a bit of humility and reality.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2012, 08:54:16 am »
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Not until after April 24. 

May actually has a number of states that Santorum could win.  The problem is that if he does really badly in April, Romney might get some momentum, and win many of those.

There are only 4 good states for Santorum in April.

WI:  Possible, but initial polling shows Romney.

MO:  The caucuses are so disjointed that there may not be a clear winner.

PA:  Romney may open the delegate gap.  It's structural.

DE:  Huh?
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2012, 02:01:19 pm »
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After California, which incidentally will be when Romney clinches.
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Snowstalker   mikado is content with only questions
23:03   Snowstalker   questions never helped anyone
23:03   Snowstalker   only answers
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