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| | |-+  Why didn't coal country flip to the GOP much earlier than it did?
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Author Topic: Why didn't coal country flip to the GOP much earlier than it did?  (Read 550 times)
marty
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« on: February 21, 2017, 12:43:09 am »
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How the hell was john kerry winning some of these southern WV and eastern KY counties? How was dukakis?

The clear divide between the GOP and the dems on environmental regulations started long ago.

When a coal miner went into the voting booth to vote for mike dukakis, george mcgovern, walter mondale, or john kerry......what exactly did he think would benefit him and his union by doing so? lol
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AMA IL TUO PRESIDENTE!
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2017, 01:03:09 am »
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You're falling into the same bogus "voting based on self-interest" logic that leads Democrats to wonder why the WWC abandoned them.

Voting is not about muh issues, ffs. It's about symbols, narratives, and emotions.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 01:08:52 am by AMA IL TUO PRESIDENTE! »Logged

Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
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Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2017, 06:03:30 am »
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You're falling into the same bogus "voting based on self-interest" logic that leads Democrats to wonder why the WWC abandoned them.

Voting is not about muh issues, ffs. It's about symbols, narratives, and emotions.

It is, it is issues about your financial situation, your social or economic values, and the issues of your culture, and which party is closes to your culture.

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Kantakouzenos
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2017, 11:13:50 am »
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The largest factor was probably organized labor still holding a large clout there.  The narrative of the "war on coal" I don't think was being played very much there yet either.  Natural gas and renewable energies only got big recently so the actual threat of job loss wasn't that high yet.

Also, you are assuming that only issue thwy will vote on is the continuing existence of their jobs.  Work place safety and the continuing existence of their high wages are also an important issues to them.
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President North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2017, 11:24:55 am »
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Generational change is a factor.

Everyone who voted for McGovern who was 40 or older, would have remembered the Depression. 55 and over would have for Dukakis.
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2017, 11:31:58 am »
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Voting is not about muh issues, ffs. It's about symbols, narratives, and emotions.

I'd approve if you didn't seem to think that was a good thing.
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Northwest Goff
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2017, 01:15:37 pm »
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Generational change is a factor.

Everyone who voted for McGovern who was 40 or older, would have remembered the Depression. 55 and over would have for Dukakis.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Not really. If you look at exit polls from 1996 in WV you see age had little role in determining whether they voted for Clinton. More important is there aren't many coal jobs to unionize.
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2017, 06:51:49 pm »
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Older people were much more democratic in WV, while younger people swung much more to the republicans, or when they started voting, they voted for the republicans
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2017, 07:20:50 pm »
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The complete electoral collapse (2012) only happened after a Democratic administration openly and gleefully pursued policies sure cause the collapse of most of the remains of the industry and then proceeded to gloat about it. Like, this isn't really a mystery everyone...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2017, 08:43:23 pm »
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The complete electoral collapse (2012) only happened after a Democratic administration openly and gleefully pursued policies sure cause the collapse of most of the remains of the industry and then proceeded to gloat about it. Like, this isn't really a mystery everyone...

So Sibboleth, what happened in short, medium, and longer term electoral voting patterns in the UK (Midlands, Wales, etc...) after Thatcher destroyed the NUM after the massive Coal Miner Strike of '84-'85?

Although I am extremely supportive of the UMWA, and still have a camouflage UMWA T-Shirt that was given to me by a 3rd generation Ohio Coal Miner, because of solidarity work that I did at college in support of the strike of '93, that was basically an extension of the Pittston Strike of '89/'90 that shut down much of the Coal Production in Appalachia against the practice of "double-breasting" (Coal Operators shutting down Union mines/pits and opening up non-union mines a few hollers down, combined with shifting operations to open non-union giant pit-mines in Wyoming and elsewhere in the Mountain West....

So what in your opinion that the Obama administration did was seen as declaring war on Coal Country?

I don't recall anything specifically..... rather the "Free" trade agenda that Obama pursued, as most of his Democratic and Republican predecessors alike, allowed the "invisible hand of the market" to do its thing, and encouraging everything from oil pipelines from Canada, "fracking" and natural gas production, and supporting shipping literally boatloads of Wyoming Coal to China (Much of this produce leaves out of Ports in Oregon)....

I am sure there is still plenty of Union Coal in Appalachia to continue fueling the aging Coal Power Plants of America, where 33% of our energy supply is still based upon Coal....

If anything, the War on Coal is actually happened directly as a result of imports of Coal from other parts of the World, that is considered "cheaper", than buying locally produced Coal from our Union Mines of places in West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, etc....

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-coal-does-us-export-and-import
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2017, 12:01:56 pm »
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The complete electoral collapse (2012) only happened after a Democratic administration openly and gleefully pursued policies sure cause the collapse of most of the remains of the industry and then proceeded to gloat about it. Like, this isn't really a mystery everyone...

So Sibboleth, what happened in short, medium, and longer term electoral voting patterns in the UK (Midlands, Wales, etc...) after Thatcher destroyed the NUM after the massive Coal Miner Strike of '84-'85?


I'll have a go at answering it but it's a more complex question than it sounds:

In areas that were particularly heavily hit by the closure of heavy industry (including coal) that still haven't recovered are still solidly Labour but more by default than anything else. Labour's vote share has been dwindling for years, for example not so long ago Labour used to get 70+% in the Welsh Valleys constituencies, now they are under 50% in most of them but they still easily win these seats due to lack of a credible opposition. The Tories are still absolutely despised, UKIP's potential is limited due to it's links to the Tory right and prior enthusiasm for things like privatisation, the Lib Dems love of 'do-gooder' internationalism is an anathema to these kind of places and Plaid Cymru (in Wales) potential is limited due to their fixation with things like the Welsh language. Also voter turnout in these areas is terrible and interest in politics is at rock bottom.

But as the lesson from the SNP in Scotland shows these areas have fallen out of love with Labour and will happily abandon them should a suitable alternative come along. If Labour does lose these areas as they have in Scotland they are essentially finished as a viable political force, you can't get even remotely close to winning an election with ideologically left wing voters in big cities alone.

However some constituencies with an industrial heritage have seen their demographics shift dramatically, it is particularly strong in areas where the Conservatives always had a strong base (e.g with rural farming areas or middle class professionals) for example South Derbyshire and North West Leicestershire. As the Labour vote collapsed in the ex-industrial part of these type of constituencies former marginals transformed into safe Conservative seats.

In many Labour coal mining seats new middle class housing private developments are springing up left, right and centre to accommodate the Conservative voting middle classes fleeing the big cities (the pattern in constituency boundary changes of many decades has been the cities and metros losing representation and the 'provinces' gaining). Some ex-industrial towns have also reinvented themselves and have become geared towards more skilled manufacturing or have transformed into commuter towns for large cities as the ex-mineworker/steelworker vote literally dies off, the latter change in particular (given voting patterns in Britain) will wipe out Labour's vote in an area in one foul swoop.

These changes potentially present a huge problem for Labour. While the very deprived ex-industrial constituencies should remain Labour at least in the short term but it would only take the right kind of populist movement to sweep them all away. In many others the demographics are shifting in a very unfavourable way as constituencies turn from an ex-industrial ones into 'Middle England' ones.

I hope that helped.
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Lothal1
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« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2017, 03:51:50 pm »
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Al Gore happened.
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2017, 06:02:48 pm »
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Al Gore happened.

Right? And? Coal Country voted for him?
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uti2
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2017, 06:06:12 pm »
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Al Gore happened.

Not Al Gore, it was Monica Lewinsky. Republicans were cynically appealing to the religious right before, but the Lewinsky event allowed them to kick the religion-baiting into hyperdrive, that's really when democrats lost the south. Clinton might've been able to win it back in '08 in light of the economic collapse, but Obama pretty much killed off any chances of that happening.
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Lothal1
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2017, 10:40:05 pm »
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Al Gore happened.

Right? And? Coal Country voted for him?
The beginning of the shift began because of Mr Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore would have won the presidency had he won West Virginia.
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For almost 200 years, the policy of this Nation has been made under our Constitution by those leaders in the Congress and the White House elected by all of the people. If a vocal minority, however fervent its cause, prevails over reason and the will of the majority, this Nation has no future as a free society. - Richard Nixon
uti2
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2017, 11:02:50 pm »
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Al Gore happened.

Right? And? Coal Country voted for him?
The beginning of the shift began because of Mr Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore would have won the presidency had he won West Virginia.

No, it was because of Lewinsky, no Lewinsky = No GWB religious pandering, the south stays with Dems longer. Gore would've won at least TN, in addition to WV and FL easily. Hillary was also polling quite well in AR in 2008, she might've won it and WV, in light of the economic collapse.
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