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Ebsy
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« Reply #25 on: June 19, 2015, 04:23:53 pm »
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It's pretty hard to argue that race had nothing to do with the South switching to the Republican party during Reagan's two terms.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #26 on: June 19, 2015, 04:33:00 pm »
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It's pretty hard to argue that race had nothing to do with the South switching to the Republican party during Reagan's two terms.

Maybe, but it's pretty clear it's not the main reason.  Southerners had no problem being loyal Democrats for decades, being in a party that was unapologetically the party of Northern Blacks.  It's also pretty hard to argue that the DNC didn't get a lot more socially liberal, or at least less welcoming of social conservatives.
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« Reply #27 on: June 19, 2015, 06:20:24 pm »
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It's pretty hard to argue that race had nothing to do with the South switching to the Republican party during Reagan's two terms.

1. Large economic rebound in 1983 and 1984 after a recession in 1981 and 1982.

2. Carter still won a lot of rural southern areas in 1980.

3. Mondale did not sit well with southerners who voted for a southerner from georgia who did peanut farming just four years ago. Humphrey, McGovern and Mondale were too left for the south.

4. Southerners will not naturally under any circumstance favor a liberal compared to southern centrists like Bill Clinton and southern centre-leftist carter. Heck Al Gore thought he would still win states in the south because he had a Tennessee accent when he went left to try to convince nader votes to come to him. In reality people in the south thought of him as a Foghorn Leghorn who pissed on "southern social conservative values" compared to Bush a Yosemite sam with a rough texas country accent who at least "believed the things they did". I don't even agree with many southern socially conservative values. But its not "its because of race!!!".
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Southern Legislator darthebearnc
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« Reply #28 on: June 19, 2015, 10:41:41 pm »
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My best guess would be that some time in the past twenty years, the Democrats adopted a strong pro-environment platform (at least relative to the Republicans), causing all of the coal, oil, etc. workers in West Virginia to become Republicans. That's basically West Virginia's whole population, so the state trended heavily for the GOP as a result. Meanwhile, Virginia kind of turned into metro D.C. and, with the addition of the other big cities (Virginia actually has these, West Virginia doesn't), Virginia slowly started trending Democratic (I doubt this trend will end anytime soon).

It's kind of funny that while West Virginia became a state due to left-wing causes (staying in Union/abolishing slavery), Virginia got its current borders due to right-wing causes (Confederacy). Now they're switched.

The only other reason I can think of is that one day in the late 1990s, when both WV and VA had GOP governors, the RNC sent out a memo telling all of its governors that it was opposite day and that GOP governors in red states should make their states turn blue and GOP governors in blue states should make their states turn red. The next day, the guy from the RNC that was in charge of sending out a memo to tell everyone to change back to their original state political affiliations forgot to send the memo to West Virginia and Virginia, causing the states to become politically switched forever.
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« Reply #29 on: June 19, 2015, 11:02:02 pm »
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...
It's kind of funny that while West Virginia became a state due to left-wing causes (staying in Union/abolishing slavery), Virginia got its current borders due to right-wing causes (Confederacy). Now they're switched.
...

Roll Eyes
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« Reply #30 on: June 19, 2015, 11:24:30 pm »
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...
It's kind of funny that while West Virginia became a state due to left-wing causes (staying in Union/abolishing slavery), Virginia got its current borders due to right-wing causes (Confederacy). Now they're switched.
...

Roll Eyes

Heh heh heh.
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« Reply #31 on: June 20, 2015, 07:26:49 am »
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...
It's kind of funny that while West Virginia became a state due to left-wing causes (staying in Union/abolishing slavery), Virginia got its current borders due to right-wing causes (Confederacy). Now they're switched.
...

Roll Eyes

Heh heh heh.

Yes, Red Avatar privilege is truly cute, isn't it?

Okay, that was rude, but really a quick look at a few wikipedia articles will confirm the following:

West Virginia's cause for split from Virginia was a protest against secession, not slavery: In fact, Lincoln forced them to add in gradual emancipation to their first state constitution to be admitted to the Union.  That's right, they had to be coerced into adding abolition into their constitution.  West Virginians opposed Virginia because they wanted to be on the right side of history, but not on the issue the reddie here assumes.  There were more than a few areas in the South that had also opposed secession largely because they didn't believe that Lincoln being elected warranted seceding and/or Civil War.  In fact, West Virginia secessionists waited until Virginia officially seceded from the Union before seceding from Virginia:

Quote from: Arthur I. Boreman
"We are determined to live under a State Government in the United States of America and under the Constitution of the United States."

What was being argued by West Virginia secessionists was a cause to stand by American Nationalism, not radical change.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheeling_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Border_states_(American_Civil_War)#West_Virginia (about the only support for darth's argument is the following:  The western areas were growing and were based on subsistence farms by yeomen; its residents held few slaves. The planters of the eastern section were wealthy slaveholders who dominated state government.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_in_the_American_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia#Separation_from_Virginia

Further, considering that many West Virginians did fight on the side of the Confederacy, it is intellectually dishonest to imply (like darth did) that they were united against slavery or even pro-Union.  And neither should one use the 1864 presidential election as proof that West Virginia was anti-slavery, as turnout (judging by the 1860 population vs. the total number of votes cast) was astronomically low due to many in the eastern and southern parts of the new state refusing to recognize the West Virginia state government as well as war politics (Confederates caused much more damage than Unionists did in WV).  A lot of people who would have otherwise voted Democratic likely stayed home out of the belief that the West Virginia state government was illegitimate and that West Virginia was still a part of the Confederate Virginia government.  Increased voter turnout in West Virginia for most of the late 19th century was consistently in favor of the Democrats, not the Republicans.  There was more support for anti-slavery politics in West Virginia than other similar areas, but that was largely due to how elitist the Virginia planter elite was and how much their politics disadvantaged the white lower class that populated the mountainous western region.  There is a reason why there was a lot more support for the state of West Virginia than say the State of Winston for instance.  The existence of this wealth and power disparity, however, should not be interpreted as the only motivation for staying in the Union, given that many wealthy people in the North also supported the Union for economic reasons.

Oh sure, I won't deny that West Virginia has a history of leftism, particularly labor union leftism, but arguing that the key motivation to secede from Virginia was because of some left wing ideals of race equality (I could go on for days about how anti-slavery didn't equal "left wing", but just for the sake of argument I am throwing in the one major left wing argument for abolitionism at the time) rather than political practicality and nationalism is kind of ignorant.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2015, 08:56:01 am by Mechaman »Logged

Southern Legislator darthebearnc
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« Reply #32 on: June 20, 2015, 03:44:57 pm »
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...
It's kind of funny that while West Virginia became a state due to left-wing causes (staying in Union/abolishing slavery), Virginia got its current borders due to right-wing causes (Confederacy). Now they're switched.
...

Roll Eyes

Heh heh heh.

Yes, Red Avatar privilege is truly cute, isn't it?

Okay, that was rude, but really a quick look at a few wikipedia articles will confirm the following:

West Virginia's cause for split from Virginia was a protest against secession, not slavery: In fact, Lincoln forced them to add in gradual emancipation to their first state constitution to be admitted to the Union.  That's right, they had to be coerced into adding abolition into their constitution.  West Virginians opposed Virginia because they wanted to be on the right side of history, but not on the issue the reddie here assumes.  There were more than a few areas in the South that had also opposed secession largely because they didn't believe that Lincoln being elected warranted seceding and/or Civil War.  In fact, West Virginia secessionists waited until Virginia officially seceded from the Union before seceding from Virginia:

Quote from: Arthur I. Boreman
"We are determined to live under a State Government in the United States of America and under the Constitution of the United States."

What was being argued by West Virginia secessionists was a cause to stand by American Nationalism, not radical change.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheeling_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Border_states_(American_Civil_War)#West_Virginia (about the only support for darth's argument is the following:  The western areas were growing and were based on subsistence farms by yeomen; its residents held few slaves. The planters of the eastern section were wealthy slaveholders who dominated state government.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_in_the_American_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia#Separation_from_Virginia

Further, considering that many West Virginians did fight on the side of the Confederacy, it is intellectually dishonest to imply (like darth did) that they were united against slavery or even pro-Union.  And neither should one use the 1864 presidential election as proof that West Virginia was anti-slavery, as turnout (judging by the 1860 population vs. the total number of votes cast) was astronomically low due to many in the eastern and southern parts of the new state refusing to recognize the West Virginia state government as well as war politics (Confederates caused much more damage than Unionists did in WV).  A lot of people who would have otherwise voted Democratic likely stayed home out of the belief that the West Virginia state government was illegitimate and that West Virginia was still a part of the Confederate Virginia government.  Increased voter turnout in West Virginia for most of the late 19th century was consistently in favor of the Democrats, not the Republicans.  There was more support for anti-slavery politics in West Virginia than other similar areas, but that was largely due to how elitist the Virginia planter elite was and how much their politics disadvantaged the white lower class that populated the mountainous western region.  There is a reason why there was a lot more support for the state of West Virginia than say the State of Winston for instance.  The existence of this wealth and power disparity, however, should not be interpreted as the only motivation for staying in the Union, given that many wealthy people in the North also supported the Union for economic reasons.

Oh sure, I won't deny that West Virginia has a history of leftism, particularly labor union leftism, but arguing that the key motivation to secede from Virginia was because of some left wing ideals of race equality (I could go on for days about how anti-slavery didn't equal "left wing", but just for the sake of argument I am throwing in the one major left wing argument for abolitionism at the time) rather than political practicality and nationalism is kind of ignorant.

LOL nice rant

The whole post was a joke; read the other paragraphs.

Sheesh
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2015, 10:38:45 am »
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Opposing slavery is strictly left wing.  Everybody knows this!

*prepares self for "for its time* argument, which makes no sense.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #34 on: June 21, 2015, 11:04:04 am »
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What should be noted is that, of the two Republican Governors the state had between like 1950 & 2000, Cecil Underwood was a desegregator and Arch A. Moore was liberal compared to the national party (by my recollection). Moreover, the state's had Jay Fricking Rockefeller as its Senator. Sure, not a Republican, but someone decently liberal. Hopefully that can put WV's transformation into fuller context.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2015, 07:57:44 am »
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The idea that WV went GOP because of social conservatism really should be put to rest.

Poor, racist, socially conservative states such as Mississippi and Arkansas were voting GOP long before WV went that way. Reagan and Bush were strong social conservatives, let us not forget as well. Nixon was, too.

It has everything to do with coal. Democrats did not play nearly as much to environmentalism in the era up until the W Presidency. WV and Kentucky rely heavily on coal jobs, and indeed we've seen them swing much harder toward Republicans than the Deep South, and perhaps much harder than anywhere else in the country.
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Nym90
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« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2015, 01:02:28 pm »
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More to the point, there are far fewer coal jobs in those states than there once were, and Republicans have successfully managed to blame Democratic environmental policies for this.
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« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2015, 02:18:36 pm »
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The idea that WV went GOP because of social conservatism really should be put to rest.

Poor, racist, socially conservative states such as Mississippi and Arkansas were voting GOP long before WV went that way. Reagan and Bush were strong social conservatives, let us not forget as well. Nixon was, too.

It has everything to do with coal. Democrats did not play nearly as much to environmentalism in the era up until the W Presidency. WV and Kentucky rely heavily on coal jobs, and indeed we've seen them swing much harder toward Republicans than the Deep South, and perhaps much harder than anywhere else in the country.

Let me say first of all that I'm DEFINITELY waiting until after 2016 to declare WV a "red state" (at least at the local level), but I think your explanation - which, don't get me wrong, is good - applies a lot more to Presidential elections than it does to other ones.

Also, this won't be well received on this forum, because a lot seem to buy into the narrative that Southern Democrats were more or less conservatives in most senses of the word, but imagine you're a West Virginian (or an Arkansan in 2010, a Georgian in 2004, etc.) and you heard this campaign argument from the Republican candidate:

"Look, I get and respect the Democratic tradition in this state ... But Democrats have had COMPLETE control of everything from the governor's mansion down to the country clerks' offices for decades, and what improvement have we seen?!  It's time to try something new!"

How would you react?
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« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2015, 06:12:11 pm »
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The idea that WV went GOP because of social conservatism really should be put to rest.

Poor, racist, socially conservative states such as Mississippi and Arkansas were voting GOP long before WV went that way. Reagan and Bush were strong social conservatives, let us not forget as well. Nixon was, too.

It has everything to do with coal. Democrats did not play nearly as much to environmentalism in the era up until the W Presidency. WV and Kentucky rely heavily on coal jobs, and indeed we've seen them swing much harder toward Republicans than the Deep South, and perhaps much harder than anywhere else in the country.

Um, AR and WV shifted almost at the same time.

Agree with the rest of what you said, as WV is actually not that religious and has relatively few Evangelicals.  Except WVers are very pro-gun, which had a marginal impact in 2000-2008 (coal outweighed all in 2012)
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« Reply #39 on: June 26, 2015, 05:05:49 pm »
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WV : Up until relatively recently US elections were much more class based. The Democrats being the party of FDR and unions were perceived as the party for the working man. The average working class guy in WV's dad and granddad and all voted straight ticket Democrat since 1932. Republican's were the party of the Chamber of Commerce and the  upper middle class or the wealthy. They were the party your boss voted for. So in a poor state like WV they even voted for Dukakis and Carter because they saw the Democrats as being the party of labor and the working man. Obviously since then social issues such as gun control, environmentalism and coal came into play which caused the state to trend right.

VA: Obviously a huge part of the trend is migration of Yankees working for the federal government from the Northeast, and blacks moving in from the DC area. These northerners bring with them their more moderate and Liberal views compared to the native southerners. Another trend is that historically Republicans had great appeal to the wealthy, highly educated, science respecting suburbanites in NOVA. Republicans are now toxic to these types of people in suburban northern cities.  The Democrats move to appeal to the 'wine' track while ditching the 'beer' track has done wonders in Virginia, while costing them WV.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 05:26:39 pm by Zyzz »Logged
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« Reply #40 on: June 27, 2015, 05:30:14 pm »
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The maps of 1896 and 1916 were almost    recent maps * (-1)

Exception: Virginia and West Virginia. Virginia went Democratic and West Virginia went Republican. Like 2008 and 2012. But the opposite of 1948-1996
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« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2015, 04:37:45 pm »
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The idea that WV went GOP because of social conservatism really should be put to rest.

Poor, racist, socially conservative states such as Mississippi and Arkansas were voting GOP long before WV went that way. Reagan and Bush were strong social conservatives, let us not forget as well. Nixon was, too.

It has everything to do with coal. Democrats did not play nearly as much to environmentalism in the era up until the W Presidency. WV and Kentucky rely heavily on coal jobs, and indeed we've seen them swing much harder toward Republicans than the Deep South, and perhaps much harder than anywhere else in the country.

Let me say first of all that I'm DEFINITELY waiting until after 2016 to declare WV a "red state" (at least at the local level), but I think your explanation - which, don't get me wrong, is good - applies a lot more to Presidential elections than it does to other ones.

Also, this won't be well received on this forum, because a lot seem to buy into the narrative that Southern Democrats were more or less conservatives in most senses of the word, but imagine you're a West Virginian (or an Arkansan in 2010, a Georgian in 2004, etc.) and you heard this campaign argument from the Republican candidate:

"Look, I get and respect the Democratic tradition in this state ... But Democrats have had COMPLETE control of everything from the governor's mansion down to the country clerks' offices for decades, and what improvement have we seen?!  It's time to try something new!"

How would you react?

Probably the same way I did when they said that in Illinois in 2014. I voted for the Democratic candidate.

But I see the third component you are adding and it is valid.
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« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2015, 04:41:37 pm »
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The idea that WV went GOP because of social conservatism really should be put to rest.

Poor, racist, socially conservative states such as Mississippi and Arkansas were voting GOP long before WV went that way. Reagan and Bush were strong social conservatives, let us not forget as well. Nixon was, too.

It has everything to do with coal. Democrats did not play nearly as much to environmentalism in the era up until the W Presidency. WV and Kentucky rely heavily on coal jobs, and indeed we've seen them swing much harder toward Republicans than the Deep South, and perhaps much harder than anywhere else in the country.

Let me say first of all that I'm DEFINITELY waiting until after 2016 to declare WV a "red state" (at least at the local level), but I think your explanation - which, don't get me wrong, is good - applies a lot more to Presidential elections than it does to other ones.

Also, this won't be well received on this forum, because a lot seem to buy into the narrative that Southern Democrats were more or less conservatives in most senses of the word, but imagine you're a West Virginian (or an Arkansan in 2010, a Georgian in 2004, etc.) and you heard this campaign argument from the Republican candidate:

"Look, I get and respect the Democratic tradition in this state ... But Democrats have had COMPLETE control of everything from the governor's mansion down to the country clerks' offices for decades, and what improvement have we seen?!  It's time to try something new!"

How would you react?

Probably the same way I did when they said that in Illinois in 2014. I voted for the Democratic candidate.

But I see the third component you are adding and it is valid.

Haha, okay so you're a bad example.
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« Reply #43 on: Today at 12:15:19 am »
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Immigration was a major factor in Virginia.

As for West Virginia, the situation is a little more complex:

-First, social issues rising up.
-Second, Al Gore's environmentalism (and the subsequent growth of this cause in the Democratic Party).
-Third, race. Hate to say this, but this seems to be a factor here.
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« Reply #44 on: Today at 12:23:08 am »
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And 100 years ago, Virginia was way more Democratic.
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« Reply #45 on: Today at 02:51:48 am »
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Immigration was a major factor in Virginia.

As for West Virginia, the situation is a little more complex:

-First, social issues rising up.
-Second, Al Gore's environmentalism (and the subsequent growth of this cause in the Democratic Party).
-Third, race. Hate to say this, but this seems to be a factor here.

I contest this. Obama and Kerry performed nearly the same in the state. Maybe the southern part of the state voted against him more because of his unapologetic environmental positions which called for heavy regulation on coal (cap and trade) and promoting "green energy", the emphasis was probably the greatest since any president. Many felt like he couldn't care less about their jobs. The Democrats still had a grip on the state level, but the presidential trend for the Republicans had been there for a while too (and this had to do with the urban rural divide and "progressive" wing of the Democratic party gaining strength). The truth is, the places that would vote on race the most are still where you'd stereo-typically think, the rural white areas of the deep south.
« Last Edit: Today at 02:54:30 am by ElectionsGuy »Logged

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« Reply #46 on: Today at 10:15:43 pm »
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Immigration was a major factor in Virginia.

As for West Virginia, the situation is a little more complex:

-First, social issues rising up.
-Second, Al Gore's environmentalism (and the subsequent growth of this cause in the Democratic Party).
-Third, race. Hate to say this, but this seems to be a factor here.

I contest this. Obama and Kerry performed nearly the same in the state. Maybe the southern part of the state voted against him more because of his unapologetic environmental positions which called for heavy regulation on coal (cap and trade) and promoting "green energy", the emphasis was probably the greatest since any president. Many felt like he couldn't care less about their jobs. The Democrats still had a grip on the state level, but the presidential trend for the Republicans had been there for a while too (and this had to do with the urban rural divide and "progressive" wing of the Democratic party gaining strength). The truth is, the places that would vote on race the most are still where you'd stereo-typically think, the rural white areas of the deep south.

http://youtu.be/ODaxZSz3Awg

How about now?
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« Reply #47 on: Today at 11:44:43 pm »
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Both states had ties to confederacy. West Virginia was part of the Union, but rebel flags, like in KY and Mo do fly there

Mark Warner broke the GOP hold on Va, then came Kaine and Webb. Kerry clearly would have won Ohio had Warner, not Edwards been the VP pick.

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