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| | |-+  2012 as a 60% landslide
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Speaker SWE
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« on: June 25, 2014, 01:52:45 pm »
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Methodology:

1. Divide Obama margin in each state by that state's FiveThirtyEight elasticity score
2. Add 8.9 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin in an Obama landslide
3. Add 12.8 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin of victory in a Romney landslide

2012 Obama 60% landslide


361
177

States where the margin of victory was below 5%
1. Missouri, .31
2. Georgia, .31

3. Arizona, .7
4. Alaska, 1.29

5. Indiana, 1.4
6. Montana, 3.29

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
1. South Carolina, 6.06
2. North Carolina, 6.68
3. Texas, 6.88
4. South Dakota, 7.48
5. North Dakota, 7.88

6. Florida, 9.74

2012 Romney 60% landslide

373
165

States where the margin of victory was below 5%
1. Washington, .36
2. Maine, 2.2

3. Oregon, 2.38
4. Connecticut, 3.55
5. Michigan, 3.58
6. New Mexico, 3.87
7. New Jersey, 4.1

8. Illinois, 4.1

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
1. Minnesota, 5.27
2. Delaware, 6.21
3. Wisconsin, 6.48
4. Massachusetts, 6.65
5. Iowa, 7.83
6. New Hampshire, 8.46

7. Rhode Island, 8.48
8. Colorado, 8.52
9. California, 9.87
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2014, 02:52:14 pm »
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Interesting how close Alaska was and how Obama would still have lost Indiana.
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2014, 03:46:53 pm »
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It's interesting that Obama doing 9 points better than in real life would only garner him three additional states.
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2014, 04:00:13 pm »
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What about that one district in Nebraska?
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Speaker SWE
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2014, 06:05:31 pm »
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What about that one district in Nebraska?
I couldn't find the elasticity data on the ME and NE districts, so I really couldn't accurately get the results for those. I'm assuming Obama would've won at least one of the districts, but without knowing the elasticity data I can't be entirely sure?
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2014, 07:22:24 pm »
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It's interesting that Obama doing 9 points better than in real life would only garner him three additional states.

And he does 7% better than '08 but gets fewer ECs. Is that just a really refined targeting effort?
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2014, 07:15:42 pm »
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Does this show us that in close elections, the electoral college has a Democratic advantage (i.e. Obama would have won EC if Romney won PV by 2% or less w/ uniform swing), but in landslides, it benefits Republicans (higher ceiling, lower floor, as demonstrated by these maps)?
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2014, 08:50:03 pm »
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I'm guessing you meant to have WV as 50% shade in the Obama landslide? ME shouldn't be 60% Dem in a Romney landslide, though whether it would be Romney or Obama I'm not sure.

From what we've actually seen in the past few election cycles, I think we'd be able to say that in a Romney landslide NE is >60% Romney, with the 3rd district >70%.  In an Obama landslide, 2nd district would go for Obama.
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2014, 04:02:44 am »
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To carry 60 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote changes the nature of the campaigns with the election season.

I disagree with the premise presented by the OP.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2014, 12:38:45 am »
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This is what it would have looked like if a massive October Surprise gave one side a 60% victory and the campaigns had been expecting a close race up to that point.  As others have pointed out, if Obama or Romney were polling at 5X/3X throughout the summer, resources would have been allocated very differently.  The winning side would probably go all out for TX or CA because of the mandate winning both of those states would give.  But if the opposition base was energized for a close race and then it fell apart, these maps are what would would see.  This is basically what went down in 2008 with McCain having a fighting chance until 9/15.
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Beet
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2014, 01:52:28 am »
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I think this shows how efficient the Obama people were at distributing his campaign efforts.

But even with the Romney map, you can see how polarized we have become, in some ways. In the 1970s and 1980s a 60% landslide would mean 45+ states and over 500 electoral votes.
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 07:39:38 pm »
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Does this show us that in close elections, the electoral college has a Democratic advantage (i.e. Obama would have won EC if Romney won PV by 2% or less w/ uniform swing), but in landslides, it benefits Republicans (higher ceiling, lower floor, as demonstrated by these maps)?

I know this is completely of topic and I apologize, but whatever happened to NHLiberal?
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 10:04:15 pm »
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This seems very wrong, are you sure it's not a 55% win either way? Because the borderline states are R+5/D+5ish, I think you've overlooked that each percentage point you gain at the expense of second place doubles your margin of victory.
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