democrats: who is your 2016 "hit list" in the senate?

[Mr.Phips]

Paul, Johnson, Kirk, and Toomey are all theoretically vulnerable - Paul because he's ridiculous, Johnson is too conservative for a swing state, Kirk is an R in Illinois, and Toomey is potentially vulnerable but we will see. I don't see Ayotte losing, R women in New England are very difficult to dislodge. I don't see how Rubio loses because it's not as if there's a single Dem A-lister in the state to do it.

Blunt and Portman both seem unlikely to lose but we've had unlikely R losses in both states before. I would rate it as 10% chance as of now.

I think we will hold a lot of these senate seats in 2016, maybe loosing one or two considered vulnerable though. As a republican, loosing one or two will be unfortunate, all of them are fine public servants.

There is almsot no way Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson survive.  They are way too conservative for their states and Democrats wont be sitting home like they did in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

My list atm...

1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - Illinois is one of the bluest states in the country. Kirk is in massive danger, particularly given that I think Democrats will be smart enough to avoid a dodgy character.

2. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - probably isn't as enticing as it appears on paper, but the Democrats should still be favoured. He's too right-wing for a centrist state such as Pennsylvania.

3. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - ditto. It's lower than Pennsylvania due to approval ratings.

4. North Carolina (R-Burr) - he doesn't have good name recognition despite being in office for 8 years now, and North Carolina is prone to being a bit of a swing state often.

5. Ohio (R-Portman) - the ultimate swing state, and Portman has very low name recognition. Probably can flip with the right candidate.

6. Arizona (R-McCain) - his approvals are in the dump, and given the demographics are changing there, a strong Democrat can easily knock him off or win an open seat (he will be 80 by 2016, and he is in his 5th term). Bench could be a problem though.

7. Kentucky (R-Paul) - he's probably too right-wing for Kentucky (and not right-wing on the right issues), so if we find the right candidate, the Democrats can easily knock him off. Obama will be gone by 2016. Upticket may influence this race though.

8. Missouri (R-Blunt) - Blunt's approvals are pretty poor, so a good candidate can knock him off. It's a reasonably close state anyway.

9. Florida (R-Rubio) - good chance he might run for President, and it is a swing state, but the Democrats have a weak bench in Florida.

10. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - I have no idea how strong Boozman is, and the right Democrat can win here without Obama around.

11. Iowa (R-Grassley) - if he retires, we probably can win an open seat.

12. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - probably safe, but if it's a good year for the Democrats, we should have a shot at the seat.

13. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - he might run for governor, and without Obama, he could be beaten in a good cycle due to strippergate. More of a longshot opportunity though.

14. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats doesn't scream that much of a winner, so he could be beaten in very good circumstances.

15. Georgia (R-Iskason) - ditto.

16. South Carolina (R-Open) - DeMint is retiring, and demographics are changing.

17. Oklahoma (R-Open) - Coburn is retirng, and there are a couple of strong candidates here.

18. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - Tea Party could interfere, however Alaska is very red.

19. Kansas (R-Moran) - however, he should be safe unless Seliebus decides to run.

20. Alabama (R-Shelby) - needs a miracle

21. South Dakota (R-Thune) - needs a miracle.

22. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - they re-elected Democrats by landslides, imagine how big Republicans will win.

23. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee might be too conservative even by Utah's standards, but he won't lose unless Matheson for some reason wants to run.

24. Idaho (R-Crapo) - not happening

Still, up to 17 seats are attainable in the right circumstances. Could be a good year for us in the Senate. Also, Nevada is the only seat we really need to worry about, although Colorado's a long shot for the Republicans. The others should be OK.

If Harry Reid could survive handily in 2010 of all years, he will be near safe in a Presidential year in a state that is only gettting bluer. 

[Mr.Phips]

Reid would need to pull the same trick of destroying all viable R candidates before they make it to the primary to survive. His win in 2010 was Angle's catastrophic failure.

But it was 2010.  A lot of very insane Republicans won that year.  Just look at Allen West. 

[Mr.Phips]

Four years out and y'all are already talking 2016 Senate?

Get a life!

For all we know, Obama could be so unpopular by the end of his second term (or an incumbent Republican president is so popular) that the GOP is actually in a position to pick-up seats in states like DE, NV, or CO?

A much better topic of conversation would be just how bad the Democrats will fare in 2014

The Democrats wont fare that badly in 2014 since Republicans control the House and are very unpopular.